{
  "schemaVersion": "vultax-public-research-data-v1",
  "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/midterm-scorecard-2026",
  "datasets": [
    {
      "title": "Favourite's price per race at the freeze: 507 Senate, House and governor races, 17 October 2026",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Category",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Races",
          "unit": null
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "50-59¢",
          10
        ],
        [
          "60-69¢",
          19
        ],
        [
          "70-79¢",
          26
        ],
        [
          "80-89¢",
          50
        ],
        [
          "90-94¢",
          70
        ],
        [
          "95-98¢",
          329
        ],
        [
          "99¢+",
          3
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Each race counted once by its highest-priced contract, midpoint of best bid and ask at 03:34 UTC. 402 favourites at 90¢ or more; 10 below 60¢. Chamber-control contracts are not races and are left out of this count.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Polymarket Gamma API, events under the midterms tag",
          "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?tag_slug=midterms&closed=false&limit=100",
          "note": "The public catalogue swept for the manifest, open and closed events, with offset and keyset paging."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket API documentation",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "Order books, midpoints and the public rate limits the captures stay inside."
        },
        {
          "label": "Frozen manifest, rules, code and file hashes",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/midterm-scorecard-2026/manifest.json",
          "note": "SHA-256 for every published file; the manifest's own hash is inside manifest-v1.json."
        },
        {
          "label": "State election offices",
          "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
          "note": "Where official results are read for the first outcome record."
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2026-10-17",
        "population": "507 races",
        "methodology": "Highest Yes midpoint among a race's non-placeholder winner contracts, from Gamma best bid and best ask at the manifest freeze"
      },
      "id": "frozen-favourites-chart",
      "kind": "published-chart",
      "description": "Every Polymarket contract about the 2026 US midterms, frozen on 17 October: 13,186 contracts in 1,352 events, a hashed manifest, two price checkpoints and a Brier rule declared before the vote. In 402 of 507 races the favourite already trades at 90¢ or more.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/midterm-scorecard-2026",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/midterm-scorecard-2026#frozen-favourites",
      "publishedAt": "2026-10-17",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-10-17",
      "version": "687dbb2e1bbe2fa1b0d42edcf5019ae7d5b20f0ce350a323c5af7faf7ed597d6",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. A pre-registered research protocol with a frozen universe and clocks; no scores exist before the election. Prices are Polymarket order-book readings at stated times, not advice.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/midterm-scorecard-2026/data.json?dataset=frozen-favourites-chart",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/midterm-scorecard-2026/data.csv?dataset=frozen-favourites-chart"
      }
    }
  ]
}