Races where the favourite already trades at 90¢ or more: 79.3%

Every Polymarket contract about the 2026 US midterms, frozen on 17 October: 13,186 contracts in 1,352 events, a hashed manifest, two price checkpoints and a Brier rule declared before the vote. In 402 of 507 races the favourite already trades at 90¢ or more. At the freeze, 402 of 507 Senate, House and governor races had a favourite priced at 90¢ or more, 332 at 95¢ or more, and only 10 below 60¢. That is the shape the scorecard has to be honest about.

- Contracts in the frozen manifest: 13,186
- Primary price checkpoint: 2 Nov, 23:59 UTC
- Manifest SHA-256, first eight characters: 5b607bde

Observed 2026-10-17, population: 507 races.

Study: https://vultax.com/research/midterm-scorecard-2026
Markdown: https://vultax.com/research/midterm-scorecard-2026.md
Data: https://vultax.com/research/midterm-scorecard-2026/data.json
Share card: https://vultax.com/og/article/research/midterm-scorecard-2026
Live screen: https://app.vultax.com/predictions/topic/midterms-2026

Vultax Research, Polymarket 2026 midterm scorecard: 13,186 contracts frozen before the vote, 2026-10-17, https://vultax.com/research/midterm-scorecard-2026