{
  "schema": "vultax-nobel-model-forecast-v1",
  "modelVersion": "nobel-public-shortlist-baseline-v1",
  "eventId": "nobel-peace-2026-10-09",
  "status": "frozen-pre-announcement",
  "issuedAt": "2026-10-08T14:47:58Z",
  "announcementUtc": "2026-10-09T09:00:00Z",
  "inputsSha256": "e34f58d52bb19540d007a848efb807a0ad36a62c1c6837f70a66c484a503ad0a",
  "protocol": {
    "trainingYears": [
      2015,
      2025
    ],
    "prior": {
      "alpha": 1,
      "beta": 1
    },
    "listHitFormula": "(headline-list selected-winner hits + 1) / (years + 2)",
    "allocation": "Equal probability to each of the seven named 2026 headline entities; no assumed ranking",
    "primaryTarget": "One of seven named PRIO 2026 headline entities, or the complementary outside-list bucket, selected from the first official announcement under the frozen venue joint-award rule",
    "jointAwardRule": "Among listed co-laureates: Trump, Zelenskyy, Netanyahu, Putin, Musk take precedence in that order; otherwise a listed individual precedes a listed organization; otherwise surname or entity name alphabetically as listed. Unlisted co-laureates do not displace a listed recipient. All official co-laureates remain in the result report.",
    "residualMeaning": "Selected winner outside these seven names; this is our analytic residual, not the venue's Other contract",
    "primaryScore": "Categorical Brier loss: sum over the same eight buckets of (probability - one-hot outcome)^2; lower is better",
    "auxiliaryTarget": "At least one of the seven names is an official co-laureate, regardless of the venue selection rule",
    "auxiliaryScore": "Binary Brier loss; no market comparison unless the target matches",
    "benchmark": "Two-sided contemporaneous midpoint, maximum spread 0.10, for all seven exact contracts; complementary mass is 1 minus their sum. No last-trade fallback or normalization. If any quote is unavailable, or their sum exceeds 1, the eight-bucket comparison is unavailable.",
    "marketInputsInModel": false,
    "newInformationRule": "Later information creates a separately versioned forecast; it never changes this one",
    "edgeRule": "One prize is one event, not eight independent trials. One win is not evidence of persistent market outperformance."
  },
  "historicalEvidence": {
    "years": 11,
    "headlineGroups": 55,
    "selectedWinnerHits": 3,
    "anyOfficialWinnerHits": 3,
    "rawHitRate": 0.2727272727272727,
    "posterior": {
      "alpha": 4,
      "beta": 9
    },
    "listProbability90PercentModelInterval": [
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      0.5273266035603439
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  "probabilities": {
    "mykola-kuleba": 0.04395604395604396,
    "save-the-children": 0.04395604395604396,
    "sudans-emergency-response-rooms": 0.04395604395604396,
    "committee-to-protect-journalists": 0.04395604395604396,
    "international-court-of-justice": 0.04395604395604396,
    "international-criminal-court": 0.04395604395604396,
    "international-space-station": 0.04395604395604396,
    "outside-prio-2026": 0.6923076923076923
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  "auxiliaryAnyListedOfficialLaureate": 0.3076923076923077,
  "candidateLabels": {
    "mykola-kuleba": "Mykola Kuleba",
    "save-the-children": "Save the Children",
    "sudans-emergency-response-rooms": "Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms",
    "committee-to-protect-journalists": "Committee to Protect Journalists",
    "international-court-of-justice": "International Court of Justice",
    "international-criminal-court": "International Criminal Court",
    "international-space-station": "International Space Station",
    "outside-prio-2026": "Selected winner outside the seven PRIO headline entities"
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  "limitations": [
    "Small retrospective sample; archived-year pages were retrieved today, not independently captured before each historical announcement.",
    "PRIO recommends worthy candidates and has no privileged committee access. Its list is not an official nominee list.",
    "The constant-probability assumption across years, uniform prior and equal allocation across names are unvalidated baseline assumptions.",
    "The interval is conditional on that model and does not cover archive bias, changes in committee preferences or other structural uncertainty.",
    "Equal name probabilities do not identify a credible individual favourite. Most probability is assigned to the outside-list bucket.",
    "No historical matched market probabilities were used, so this is not a demonstration of market-beating accuracy.",
    "Market extracts remain private pending the existing reuse review; this public forecast uses PRIO and official Nobel sources only."
  ],
  "winner": null,
  "score": null,
  "marketOutperformanceEstablished": false,
  "forecastId": "14a65c2d03b956035e16625d"
}