# Nobel Peace Prize Odds: The 2025 Market Rose 66 Points Before the Announcement
The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize market on Polymarket moved 65.8 points toward the winner in the 12 hours before the announcement, 57 times its largest 12-hour move of the prior 30 days and the largest of 50 award announcements. The 2026 market is measured the same way.
Canonical URL: https://vultax.com/research/nobel-peace-prize-odds-before-announcement
Author: [Vultax Research](https://vultax.com/editorial-policy)
Published: 2026-09-30
Last public revision: 2026-09-30
Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. A timing statistic on public market data, not a finding about any person. No wallet, account or trader is identified or accused, and nothing here is advice to trade.
## Key figures
- Winner's move in the 12 hours before the 2025 announcement: +65.8 pts — From 1.5% to 67.3% on Polymarket's 10-minute price, 57 times its largest 12-hour move of the prior 30 days
- Rank among award announcements: 1 of 50 — January 2025 to April 2026; the median winner moved 0.35 points
- Final-12-hour dollars against the quiet-period average: 1,927× — $946,165 from 1,152 taker wallets; the median award saw 15.5×
- Winners that moved outside their own 30-day range: 3 of 50 — A final-12-hour rise larger than any 12-hour move in the 30 days before
## The short answer
The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize market moved further before its announcement than any other award in the data. In the 12 hours before the Norwegian Nobel Committee named María Corina Machado on 10 October 2025, her Polymarket price rose 65.8 points, from 1.5% to 67.3%. Across 50 committee-decided award announcements between January 2025 and April 2026, the median winner moved 0.35 points in the same window, and one other moved more than 20.
For 2026, Polymarket's favourite at 19:00 UTC on 29 September 2026 was Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms at 16.4%. The prize is announced at 09:00 UTC on 9 October, and the winner's price will be measured the same way.
The measurement is a timing statistic: how far a price travelled before a scheduled announcement, set against that market's own quiet period. It says nothing about who traded or why.
## Nobel Peace Prize 2026 odds on Polymarket
The favourite's price was more than twice that of the next candidate, Save the Children. A year earlier the favourite a day out was the same organisation, Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms, at 27%, and it did not win; Machado traded at 0.85%.
Vultax records the 2026 market the same way as the 2025 one. The forecast record stores the full Polymarket market 7 days, 24 hours, 1 hour and 10 minutes before the announcement, and the book capture has read 18 of the 32 listed outcomes every minute since 17:49 UTC on 16 September. The winner's 12-hour move will be measured against its own 30 days, ranked against the 50 awards below and added to this page.
The 8 highest-priced candidates at 19:00 UTC on 29 September 2026, from Polymarket's price history. Thinly traded candidates can carry a wide gap between bid and ask.
| Candidate | Polymarket Yes price |
| --- | --- |
| Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms | 16.4% |
| Save the Children | 7.5% |
| Yulia Navalnaya | 5.5% |
| International Court of Justice | 5.2% |
| Committee to Protect Journalists | 5.1% |
| Sara Al-Saqqa | 4.9% |
| UNRWA | 4.1% |
| Reporters Without Borders | 3.9% |
[CSV](https://vultax.com/research/nobel-peace-prize-odds-before-announcement/data.csv?dataset=section-nobel-peace-prize-2026-odds-on-polymarket-table) · [JSON](https://vultax.com/research/nobel-peace-prize-odds-before-announcement/data.json?dataset=section-nobel-peace-prize-2026-odds-on-polymarket-table)
## What the 2025 market did, minute by minute
Polymarket's own price history reproduces the widely quoted figures exactly: 3.75% at 21:29 UTC on 9 October and 72.8% at 00:00 UTC on 10 October. The move began with a $14,250 fill at 5.0% at 22:42 UTC on 9 October; from the next minute the price never again printed below 5%.
In the first hour of the move 215 fills worth $74,194 came from 71 taker wallets. Over the full 12 hours before the announcement the market traded $946,165 in 4,571 fills, against a quiet-period average of $491 per 12 hours.
Minute prices from Polymarket's CLOB price history; fills from the Polymarket-v1 tape. The chart above uses the 10-minute series.
| Time (UTC) | Machado Yes price | What happened |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 21:29 9 Oct | 3.75% | Quoted starting level |
| 22:42:57 9 Oct | 5.0% | First large fill |
| 22:47 9 Oct | 10.1% | Crosses 10% |
| 23:22 9 Oct | 53.1% | Crosses 50% |
| 23:56 9 Oct | 74.15% | Highest before the announcement |
| 00:00 10 Oct | 72.8% | Quoted end level |
| 08:59 10 Oct | 71.65% | Last minute before 09:00 |
[CSV](https://vultax.com/research/nobel-peace-prize-odds-before-announcement/data.csv?dataset=the-2025-move-table) · [JSON](https://vultax.com/research/nobel-peace-prize-odds-before-announcement/data.json?dataset=the-2025-move-table)
### Machado's Yes price in the 12 hours before the 2025 announcement
Polymarket, every 10 minutes, 20:50 UTC on 9 October to 08:50 UTC on 10 October 2025. Percent.
| Category | Machado Yes price (%) |
| --- | --- |
| 20:50 | 1.5 |
| 21:00 | 2.1 |
| 21:10 | 7.6 |
| 21:20 | 3.55 |
| 21:30 | 3.45 |
| 21:40 | 3.6 |
| 21:50 | 2.75 |
| 22:00 | 3.7 |
| 22:10 | 3.65 |
| 22:20 | 3.65 |
| 22:30 | 3.6 |
| 22:40 | 3.6 |
| 22:50 | 10.8 |
| 23:00 | 38.95 |
| 23:10 | 25.15 |
| 23:20 | 32.95 |
| 23:30 | 65.2 |
| 23:40 | 60.45 |
| 23:50 | 66.05 |
| 00:00 | 72.8 |
| 00:10 | 63.5 |
| 00:20 | 60.55 |
| 00:30 | 46.5 |
| 00:40 | 39 |
| 00:50 | 38.4 |
| 01:00 | 48.65 |
| 01:10 | 49.9 |
| 01:20 | 54.95 |
| 01:30 | 53.2 |
| 01:40 | 65.3 |
| 01:50 | 68.2 |
| 02:00 | 67.2 |
| 02:10 | 71.65 |
| 02:20 | 72.45 |
| 02:30 | 65.9 |
| 02:40 | 64.55 |
| 02:50 | 69.4 |
| 03:00 | 65.75 |
| 03:10 | 64.7 |
| 03:20 | 60.15 |
| 03:30 | 66.6 |
| 03:40 | 69.4 |
| 03:50 | 68.7 |
| 04:00 | 69.1 |
| 04:10 | 67.75 |
| 04:20 | 67.3 |
| 04:30 | 67.9 |
| 04:40 | 67.4 |
| 04:50 | 67.55 |
| 05:00 | 67.05 |
| 05:10 | 68.3 |
| 05:20 | 67.15 |
| 05:30 | 65.3 |
| 05:40 | 64.5 |
| 05:50 | 68.8 |
| 06:00 | 68.3 |
| 06:10 | 67.85 |
| 06:20 | 67.7 |
| 06:30 | 62.95 |
| 06:40 | 62.75 |
| 06:50 | 65.3 |
| 07:00 | 66 |
| 07:10 | 69.05 |
| 07:20 | 70 |
| 07:30 | 68.65 |
| 07:40 | 69.55 |
| 07:50 | 70.15 |
| 08:00 | 70.85 |
| 08:10 | 68.8 |
| 08:20 | 68.85 |
| 08:30 | 68.85 |
| 08:40 | 68.1 |
| 08:50 | 67.3 |
[CSV](https://vultax.com/research/nobel-peace-prize-odds-before-announcement/data.csv?dataset=the-2025-move-chart) · [JSON](https://vultax.com/research/nobel-peace-prize-odds-before-announcement/data.json?dataset=the-2025-move-chart)
## Against the market's own quiet period
Every hour of the 30 days before the window gives one 12-hour price change, 709 in all. The median absolute change was 0.05 points, 99% were within 0.9 points and the largest was 1.15 points.
The final 12 hours moved 57 times that largest change. Over 24 hours the multiple is 74.
## The base rate: 50 award announcements
The same statistic was computed for every award in the tape whose result is fixed before a scheduled reveal: Oscars and Grammys categories, NFL and MLB MVPs, the Heisman, the Game Awards, the Ballon d'Or and the Nobel Peace Prize, 11 announcement moments in all. The window closes at the start of the ceremony or broadcast.
Two winners rose by more than 20 points. The second, NFL MVP 2024-25 (Josh Allen), rose 48.0 points, which was 0.74 times that market's own largest 12-hour move in the preceding month. Three winners moved outside their own 30-day range, and the favourite 24 hours out won 34 times.
Trading always picks up before an announcement: across the set, the final 12 hours traded a median 15.5 times the quiet-period average. The next-largest surge after the Nobel was 112 times.
The ten announcements in the chart, in the same order: the move as a multiple of the market's largest 12-hour move in the prior 30 days, and final-12-hour dollars as a multiple of the quiet-period average.
| Announcement | Winner | × own 30-day max | × usual 12-hour dollars |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Nobel Peace Prize 2025 | María Corina Machado | 57.22 | 1,927.0 |
| NFL MVP 2024-25 | Josh Allen | 0.74 | 8.4 |
| Grammys 2026: Album of the Year | DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS - Bad Bunny | 0.86 | 15.6 |
| Grammys 2026: Record of the Year | luther - Kendrick Lamar and SZA | 1.50 | 15.9 |
| Grammys 2026: Song of the Year | Wildflower - Billie Eilish | 2.01 | 111.8 |
| Ballon d'Or 2025 | Ousmane Dembele | 0.56 | 86.5 |
| Oscars 2026: actor | Michael B. Jordan | 0.21 | 18.7 |
| Grammys 2025: Song of the Year | 'Not Like Us' - Kendrick Lamar | 0.62 | 11.4 |
| Oscars 2026: supporting actress | Amy Madigan | 0.25 | 26.3 |
| NFL Coach of the Year 2025-26 | Mike Vrabel | 0.32 | 0.3 |
[CSV](https://vultax.com/research/nobel-peace-prize-odds-before-announcement/data.csv?dataset=base-rate-table) · [JSON](https://vultax.com/research/nobel-peace-prize-odds-before-announcement/data.json?dataset=base-rate-table)
### Winner's price change in the 12 hours before the announcement
Polymarket, committee-decided awards, January 2025 to April 2026. Percentage points; the ten largest.
| Category | Change (points) |
| --- | --- |
| Nobel Peace Prize 2025 | 65.8 |
| NFL MVP 2024-25 | 48 |
| Grammys 2026: Album of the Year | 13.9 |
| Grammys 2026: Record of the Year | 10.5 |
| Grammys 2026: Song of the Year | 8.6 |
| Ballon d'Or 2025 | 7.2 |
| Oscars 2026: actor | 6.6 |
| Grammys 2025: Song of the Year | 5 |
| Oscars 2026: supporting actress | 4.6 |
| NFL Coach of the Year 2025-26 | 3 |
[CSV](https://vultax.com/research/nobel-peace-prize-odds-before-announcement/data.csv?dataset=base-rate-chart) · [JSON](https://vultax.com/research/nobel-peace-prize-odds-before-announcement/data.json?dataset=base-rate-chart)
## What the Nobel Institute said
Three days after the 2025 announcement, Kristian Berg Harpviken, director of the Norwegian Nobel Institute and secretary of the committee, told Norway's TV2 that the possible leak was "highly likely" espionage and that the institute would investigate. This study measures the market, not the leak.
## Method and limits
Prices are Polymarket's CLOB price history at 10-minute resolution; a price is the last point at or before the instant. The pre-announcement change is the price one second before the scheduled start minus the price 12 hours earlier. The baseline is every 12-hour change on an hourly grid over the 30 days before that window.
Dollars, fills and taker wallets come from the Polymarket-v1 fill tape, where one row is one maker fill. Wallets are counted, never listed. Awards decided live on the night (Eurovision) are kept out of the base rate, as are markets without 30 days of price history.
## Questions
### Who is the favourite to win the Nobel Peace Prize 2026?
On Polymarket at 19:00 UTC on 29 September 2026, Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms at 16.4%, followed by Save the Children at 7.5%. The live prices are in the Vultax terminal.
### When is the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize announced?
At 11:00 Oslo time (09:00 UTC) on Friday 9 October 2026, at the Norwegian Nobel Institute.
### Did the Nobel Peace Prize odds move before the 2025 announcement?
Yes. Machado's price rose 65.8 points in the 12 hours before 09:00 UTC on 10 October 2025, most of it within an hour of the first large fill.
### Is it normal for award markets to move before the announcement?
Small moves are normal; large ones are rare. The median winner among 50 award announcements moved 0.35 points in the final 12 hours.
### Does a pre-announcement move prove a leak?
No. It shows that a price moved further than the market's own history would suggest, at a time when the result was not public. It does not identify who traded or why.
## Revision notes
- 2026-09-30: Published before the 2026 announcement, with Polymarket's 2026 odds read at 19:00 UTC on 29 September 2026. The winner's measurement follows the 9 October announcement.
## Sources and methodology
- [Boka Qin and Rui Yang — Polymarket-v1 Database (TimeSeventeen)](https://huggingface.co/datasets/TimeSeventeen/Polymarket-v1) — Fills for settled markets, 1 January 2025 to 28 April 2026, CC BY 4.0. Vultax computed the windows and counts.
- [Polymarket CLOB API — price history](https://docs.polymarket.com/) — Minute and 10-minute Yes prices for every market in the base rate and for the 2026 candidates.
- [Polymarket — Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026](https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139) — The 2026 market; 32 listed outcomes.
- [CBS News — Possible Nobel Peace Prize leak was 'highly likely' espionage, committee secretary says](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nobel-peace-prize-leak-espionage-committee-secretary/) — 13 October 2025; Kristian Berg Harpviken's remarks to TV2.
- [Norwegian Nobel Committee — announcement of the Nobel Peace Prize 2026](https://www.nobelpeaceprize.org/press/events/announcement-nobel-peace-prize-2026) — Friday 9 October 2026, 11:00 CEST.