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      "title": "Nobel Peace Prize 2026 odds on Polymarket",
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          "Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms",
          "16.4%"
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          "Save the Children",
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          "Yulia Navalnaya",
          "5.5%"
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        [
          "International Court of Justice",
          "5.2%"
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        [
          "Committee to Protect Journalists",
          "5.1%"
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          "Sara Al-Saqqa",
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          "Reporters Without Borders",
          "3.9%"
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        {
          "label": "Boka Qin and Rui Yang — Polymarket-v1 Database (TimeSeventeen)",
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          "note": "Fills for settled markets, 1 January 2025 to 28 April 2026, CC BY 4.0. Vultax computed the windows and counts."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket CLOB API — price history",
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        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139",
          "note": "The 2026 market; 32 listed outcomes."
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        {
          "label": "CBS News — Possible Nobel Peace Prize leak was 'highly likely' espionage, committee secretary says",
          "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nobel-peace-prize-leak-espionage-committee-secretary/",
          "note": "13 October 2025; Kristian Berg Harpviken's remarks to TV2."
        },
        {
          "label": "Norwegian Nobel Committee — announcement of the Nobel Peace Prize 2026",
          "url": "https://www.nobelpeaceprize.org/press/events/announcement-nobel-peace-prize-2026",
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      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/nobel-peace-prize-odds-before-announcement",
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      "title": "What the 2025 market did, minute by minute",
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          "22:47 9 Oct",
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          "23:22 9 Oct",
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          "23:56 9 Oct",
          "74.15%",
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          "00:00 10 Oct",
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          "Quoted end level"
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          "08:59 10 Oct",
          "71.65%",
          "Last minute before 09:00"
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          "label": "CBS News — Possible Nobel Peace Prize leak was 'highly likely' espionage, committee secretary says",
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          3.7
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          "22:30",
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          "23:40",
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        [
          "23:50",
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          "00:00",
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          "00:10",
          63.5
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          "00:20",
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          "00:30",
          46.5
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          "00:40",
          39
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          "00:50",
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          "01:00",
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          "01:10",
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          "01:30",
          53.2
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        [
          "01:40",
          65.3
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        [
          "01:50",
          68.2
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          "02:00",
          67.2
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          "02:10",
          71.65
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          "02:20",
          72.45
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        [
          "02:30",
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          "02:50",
          69.4
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          "03:00",
          65.75
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          "03:30",
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          "03:40",
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          "04:20",
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          "05:40",
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          "06:00",
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          "06:10",
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        [
          "06:20",
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        [
          "06:30",
          62.95
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        [
          "06:40",
          62.75
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        [
          "06:50",
          65.3
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        [
          "07:00",
          66
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        [
          "07:10",
          69.05
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          "07:20",
          70
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        [
          "07:30",
          68.65
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          "07:40",
          69.55
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        [
          "07:50",
          70.15
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          "08:00",
          70.85
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        [
          "08:10",
          68.8
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        [
          "08:20",
          68.85
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        [
          "08:30",
          68.85
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        [
          "08:40",
          68.1
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        [
          "08:50",
          67.3
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      "measurementContext": "Polymarket, every 10 minutes, 20:50 UTC on 9 October to 08:50 UTC on 10 October 2025. Percent.",
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          "label": "Boka Qin and Rui Yang — Polymarket-v1 Database (TimeSeventeen)",
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          "note": "Fills for settled markets, 1 January 2025 to 28 April 2026, CC BY 4.0. Vultax computed the windows and counts."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket CLOB API — price history",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/",
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        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026",
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        {
          "label": "CBS News — Possible Nobel Peace Prize leak was 'highly likely' espionage, committee secretary says",
          "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nobel-peace-prize-leak-espionage-committee-secretary/",
          "note": "13 October 2025; Kristian Berg Harpviken's remarks to TV2."
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      "title": "The base rate: 50 award announcements",
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          "unit": null
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          "8.4"
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        [
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          "DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS - Bad Bunny",
          "0.86",
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        [
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          "luther - Kendrick Lamar and SZA",
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          "2.01",
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          "18.7"
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        [
          "Grammys 2025: Song of the Year",
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          "11.4"
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        [
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          "0.25",
          "26.3"
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        [
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          "Mike Vrabel",
          "0.32",
          "0.3"
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      "measurementContext": "The ten announcements in the chart, in the same order: the move as a multiple of the market's largest 12-hour move in the prior 30 days, and final-12-hour dollars as a multiple of the quiet-period average.",
      "sources": [
        {
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          "note": "Fills for settled markets, 1 January 2025 to 28 April 2026, CC BY 4.0. Vultax computed the windows and counts."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket CLOB API — price history",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "Minute and 10-minute Yes prices for every market in the base rate and for the 2026 candidates."
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        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026",
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          "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nobel-peace-prize-leak-espionage-committee-secretary/",
          "note": "13 October 2025; Kristian Berg Harpviken's remarks to TV2."
        },
        {
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      "title": "Winner's price change in the 12 hours before the announcement",
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        [
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          13.9
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        [
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          10.5
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        [
          "Grammys 2026: Song of the Year",
          8.6
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        [
          "Ballon d'Or 2025",
          7.2
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        [
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          6.6
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        [
          "Grammys 2025: Song of the Year",
          5
        ],
        [
          "Oscars 2026: supporting actress",
          4.6
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        [
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          3
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Polymarket, committee-decided awards, January 2025 to April 2026. Percentage points; the ten largest.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Boka Qin and Rui Yang — Polymarket-v1 Database (TimeSeventeen)",
          "url": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/TimeSeventeen/Polymarket-v1",
          "note": "Fills for settled markets, 1 January 2025 to 28 April 2026, CC BY 4.0. Vultax computed the windows and counts."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket CLOB API — price history",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "Minute and 10-minute Yes prices for every market in the base rate and for the 2026 candidates."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139",
          "note": "The 2026 market; 32 listed outcomes."
        },
        {
          "label": "CBS News — Possible Nobel Peace Prize leak was 'highly likely' espionage, committee secretary says",
          "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nobel-peace-prize-leak-espionage-committee-secretary/",
          "note": "13 October 2025; Kristian Berg Harpviken's remarks to TV2."
        },
        {
          "label": "Norwegian Nobel Committee — announcement of the Nobel Peace Prize 2026",
          "url": "https://www.nobelpeaceprize.org/press/events/announcement-nobel-peace-prize-2026",
          "note": "Friday 9 October 2026, 11:00 CEST."
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      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2025-01-01/2026-04-28",
        "population": "50 award announcements with one settled winner and 30 days of price history",
        "methodology": "Yes price 1 second before the scheduled start minus the price 12 hours earlier, from Polymarket's 10-minute price history."
      },
      "id": "base-rate-chart",
      "kind": "published-chart",
      "description": "The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize market on Polymarket moved 65.8 points toward the winner in the 12 hours before the announcement, 57 times its largest 12-hour move of the prior 30 days and the largest of 50 award announcements. The 2026 market is measured the same way.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/nobel-peace-prize-odds-before-announcement",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/nobel-peace-prize-odds-before-announcement#base-rate",
      "publishedAt": "2026-09-30",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-09-30",
      "version": "81e0d5a06d2dcd6ac397e7dedf6c281d2bcd11582de01297900595b7e99de4f7",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. A timing statistic on public market data, not a finding about any person. No wallet, account or trader is identified or accused, and nothing here is advice to trade.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/nobel-peace-prize-odds-before-announcement/data.json?dataset=base-rate-chart",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/nobel-peace-prize-odds-before-announcement/data.csv?dataset=base-rate-chart"
      }
    }
  ]
}