{
  "schemaVersion": "vultax-public-research-data-v1",
  "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/nobel-peace-prize-odds-before-announcement",
  "datasets": [
    {
      "title": "Winner's price change in the 12 hours before the announcement",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Category",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Change (points)",
          "unit": null
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "Nobel Peace Prize 2025",
          65.8
        ],
        [
          "NFL MVP 2024-25",
          48
        ],
        [
          "Grammys 2026: Album of the Year",
          13.9
        ],
        [
          "Grammys 2026: Record of the Year",
          10.5
        ],
        [
          "Grammys 2026: Song of the Year",
          8.6
        ],
        [
          "Ballon d'Or 2025",
          7.2
        ],
        [
          "Oscars 2026: actor",
          6.6
        ],
        [
          "Grammys 2025: Song of the Year",
          5
        ],
        [
          "Oscars 2026: supporting actress",
          4.6
        ],
        [
          "NFL Coach of the Year 2025-26",
          3
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Polymarket, committee-decided awards, January 2025 to April 2026. Percentage points; the ten largest.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Boka Qin and Rui Yang — Polymarket-v1 Database (TimeSeventeen)",
          "url": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/TimeSeventeen/Polymarket-v1",
          "note": "Fills for settled markets, 1 January 2025 to 28 April 2026, CC BY 4.0. Vultax computed the windows and counts."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket CLOB API — price history",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "Minute and 10-minute Yes prices for every market in the base rate and for the 2026 candidates."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139",
          "note": "The 2026 market; 32 listed outcomes."
        },
        {
          "label": "CBS News — Possible Nobel Peace Prize leak was 'highly likely' espionage, committee secretary says",
          "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nobel-peace-prize-leak-espionage-committee-secretary/",
          "note": "13 October 2025; Kristian Berg Harpviken's remarks to TV2."
        },
        {
          "label": "Norwegian Nobel Committee — announcement of the Nobel Peace Prize 2026",
          "url": "https://www.nobelpeaceprize.org/press/events/announcement-nobel-peace-prize-2026",
          "note": "Friday 9 October 2026, 11:00 CEST."
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2025-01-01/2026-04-28",
        "population": "50 award announcements with one settled winner and 30 days of price history",
        "methodology": "Yes price 1 second before the scheduled start minus the price 12 hours earlier, from Polymarket's 10-minute price history."
      },
      "id": "base-rate-chart",
      "kind": "published-chart",
      "description": "The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize market on Polymarket moved 65.8 points toward the winner in the 12 hours before the announcement, 57 times its largest 12-hour move of the prior 30 days and the largest of 50 award announcements. The 2026 market is measured the same way.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/nobel-peace-prize-odds-before-announcement",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/nobel-peace-prize-odds-before-announcement#base-rate",
      "publishedAt": "2026-09-30",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-09-30",
      "version": "81e0d5a06d2dcd6ac397e7dedf6c281d2bcd11582de01297900595b7e99de4f7",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. A timing statistic on public market data, not a finding about any person. No wallet, account or trader is identified or accused, and nothing here is advice to trade.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/nobel-peace-prize-odds-before-announcement/data.json?dataset=base-rate-chart",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/nobel-peace-prize-odds-before-announcement/data.csv?dataset=base-rate-chart"
      }
    }
  ]
}