{
  "schemaVersion": "vultax-public-research-data-v1",
  "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/nobel-peace-prize-odds-before-announcement",
  "datasets": [
    {
      "title": "The base rate: 50 award announcements",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Announcement",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Winner",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "× own 30-day max",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "× usual 12-hour dollars",
          "unit": null
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "Nobel Peace Prize 2025",
          "María Corina Machado",
          "57.22",
          "1,927.0"
        ],
        [
          "NFL MVP 2024-25",
          "Josh Allen",
          "0.74",
          "8.4"
        ],
        [
          "Grammys 2026: Album of the Year",
          "DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS - Bad Bunny",
          "0.86",
          "15.6"
        ],
        [
          "Grammys 2026: Record of the Year",
          "luther - Kendrick Lamar and SZA",
          "1.50",
          "15.9"
        ],
        [
          "Grammys 2026: Song of the Year",
          "Wildflower - Billie Eilish",
          "2.01",
          "111.8"
        ],
        [
          "Ballon d'Or 2025",
          "Ousmane Dembele",
          "0.56",
          "86.5"
        ],
        [
          "Oscars 2026: actor",
          "Michael B. Jordan",
          "0.21",
          "18.7"
        ],
        [
          "Grammys 2025: Song of the Year",
          "'Not Like Us' - Kendrick Lamar",
          "0.62",
          "11.4"
        ],
        [
          "Oscars 2026: supporting actress",
          "Amy Madigan",
          "0.25",
          "26.3"
        ],
        [
          "NFL Coach of the Year 2025-26",
          "Mike Vrabel",
          "0.32",
          "0.3"
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "The ten announcements in the chart, in the same order: the move as a multiple of the market's largest 12-hour move in the prior 30 days, and final-12-hour dollars as a multiple of the quiet-period average.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Boka Qin and Rui Yang — Polymarket-v1 Database (TimeSeventeen)",
          "url": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/TimeSeventeen/Polymarket-v1",
          "note": "Fills for settled markets, 1 January 2025 to 28 April 2026, CC BY 4.0. Vultax computed the windows and counts."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket CLOB API — price history",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "Minute and 10-minute Yes prices for every market in the base rate and for the 2026 candidates."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139",
          "note": "The 2026 market; 32 listed outcomes."
        },
        {
          "label": "CBS News — Possible Nobel Peace Prize leak was 'highly likely' espionage, committee secretary says",
          "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nobel-peace-prize-leak-espionage-committee-secretary/",
          "note": "13 October 2025; Kristian Berg Harpviken's remarks to TV2."
        },
        {
          "label": "Norwegian Nobel Committee — announcement of the Nobel Peace Prize 2026",
          "url": "https://www.nobelpeaceprize.org/press/events/announcement-nobel-peace-prize-2026",
          "note": "Friday 9 October 2026, 11:00 CEST."
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": null,
        "temporalCoverage": null,
        "population": null,
        "methodology": null
      },
      "id": "base-rate-table",
      "kind": "published-table",
      "description": "The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize market on Polymarket moved 65.8 points toward the winner in the 12 hours before the announcement, 57 times its largest 12-hour move of the prior 30 days and the largest of 50 award announcements. The 2026 market is measured the same way.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/nobel-peace-prize-odds-before-announcement",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/nobel-peace-prize-odds-before-announcement#base-rate",
      "publishedAt": "2026-09-30",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-09-30",
      "version": "c36a43e1473412dcc5bc6013a97980cf625a94b8d1fa094c137c5791f05aa9b9",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. A timing statistic on public market data, not a finding about any person. No wallet, account or trader is identified or accused, and nothing here is advice to trade.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/nobel-peace-prize-odds-before-announcement/data.json?dataset=base-rate-table",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/nobel-peace-prize-odds-before-announcement/data.csv?dataset=base-rate-table"
      }
    }
  ]
}