{
  "schemaVersion": "vultax-public-research-data-v1",
  "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/nobel-peace-prize-odds-before-announcement",
  "datasets": [
    {
      "title": "Machado's Yes price in the 12 hours before the 2025 announcement",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Category",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Machado Yes price",
          "unit": "%"
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "20:50",
          1.5
        ],
        [
          "21:00",
          2.1
        ],
        [
          "21:10",
          7.6
        ],
        [
          "21:20",
          3.55
        ],
        [
          "21:30",
          3.45
        ],
        [
          "21:40",
          3.6
        ],
        [
          "21:50",
          2.75
        ],
        [
          "22:00",
          3.7
        ],
        [
          "22:10",
          3.65
        ],
        [
          "22:20",
          3.65
        ],
        [
          "22:30",
          3.6
        ],
        [
          "22:40",
          3.6
        ],
        [
          "22:50",
          10.8
        ],
        [
          "23:00",
          38.95
        ],
        [
          "23:10",
          25.15
        ],
        [
          "23:20",
          32.95
        ],
        [
          "23:30",
          65.2
        ],
        [
          "23:40",
          60.45
        ],
        [
          "23:50",
          66.05
        ],
        [
          "00:00",
          72.8
        ],
        [
          "00:10",
          63.5
        ],
        [
          "00:20",
          60.55
        ],
        [
          "00:30",
          46.5
        ],
        [
          "00:40",
          39
        ],
        [
          "00:50",
          38.4
        ],
        [
          "01:00",
          48.65
        ],
        [
          "01:10",
          49.9
        ],
        [
          "01:20",
          54.95
        ],
        [
          "01:30",
          53.2
        ],
        [
          "01:40",
          65.3
        ],
        [
          "01:50",
          68.2
        ],
        [
          "02:00",
          67.2
        ],
        [
          "02:10",
          71.65
        ],
        [
          "02:20",
          72.45
        ],
        [
          "02:30",
          65.9
        ],
        [
          "02:40",
          64.55
        ],
        [
          "02:50",
          69.4
        ],
        [
          "03:00",
          65.75
        ],
        [
          "03:10",
          64.7
        ],
        [
          "03:20",
          60.15
        ],
        [
          "03:30",
          66.6
        ],
        [
          "03:40",
          69.4
        ],
        [
          "03:50",
          68.7
        ],
        [
          "04:00",
          69.1
        ],
        [
          "04:10",
          67.75
        ],
        [
          "04:20",
          67.3
        ],
        [
          "04:30",
          67.9
        ],
        [
          "04:40",
          67.4
        ],
        [
          "04:50",
          67.55
        ],
        [
          "05:00",
          67.05
        ],
        [
          "05:10",
          68.3
        ],
        [
          "05:20",
          67.15
        ],
        [
          "05:30",
          65.3
        ],
        [
          "05:40",
          64.5
        ],
        [
          "05:50",
          68.8
        ],
        [
          "06:00",
          68.3
        ],
        [
          "06:10",
          67.85
        ],
        [
          "06:20",
          67.7
        ],
        [
          "06:30",
          62.95
        ],
        [
          "06:40",
          62.75
        ],
        [
          "06:50",
          65.3
        ],
        [
          "07:00",
          66
        ],
        [
          "07:10",
          69.05
        ],
        [
          "07:20",
          70
        ],
        [
          "07:30",
          68.65
        ],
        [
          "07:40",
          69.55
        ],
        [
          "07:50",
          70.15
        ],
        [
          "08:00",
          70.85
        ],
        [
          "08:10",
          68.8
        ],
        [
          "08:20",
          68.85
        ],
        [
          "08:30",
          68.85
        ],
        [
          "08:40",
          68.1
        ],
        [
          "08:50",
          67.3
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Polymarket, every 10 minutes, 20:50 UTC on 9 October to 08:50 UTC on 10 October 2025. Percent.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Boka Qin and Rui Yang — Polymarket-v1 Database (TimeSeventeen)",
          "url": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/TimeSeventeen/Polymarket-v1",
          "note": "Fills for settled markets, 1 January 2025 to 28 April 2026, CC BY 4.0. Vultax computed the windows and counts."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket CLOB API — price history",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "Minute and 10-minute Yes prices for every market in the base rate and for the 2026 candidates."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139",
          "note": "The 2026 market; 32 listed outcomes."
        },
        {
          "label": "CBS News — Possible Nobel Peace Prize leak was 'highly likely' espionage, committee secretary says",
          "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nobel-peace-prize-leak-espionage-committee-secretary/",
          "note": "13 October 2025; Kristian Berg Harpviken's remarks to TV2."
        },
        {
          "label": "Norwegian Nobel Committee — announcement of the Nobel Peace Prize 2026",
          "url": "https://www.nobelpeaceprize.org/press/events/announcement-nobel-peace-prize-2026",
          "note": "Friday 9 October 2026, 11:00 CEST."
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2025-10-09T20:50Z/2025-10-10T09:00Z",
        "population": "Machado's Yes price, Polymarket Nobel Peace Prize 2025",
        "methodology": "Polymarket CLOB price history at 10-minute fidelity for the Yes token, the series the 12-hour change is computed on."
      },
      "id": "the-2025-move-chart",
      "kind": "published-chart",
      "description": "The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize market on Polymarket moved 65.8 points toward the winner in the 12 hours before the announcement, 57 times its largest 12-hour move of the prior 30 days and the largest of 50 award announcements. The 2026 market is measured the same way.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/nobel-peace-prize-odds-before-announcement",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/nobel-peace-prize-odds-before-announcement#the-2025-move",
      "publishedAt": "2026-09-30",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-09-30",
      "version": "11ed14623acc417c7a47f01d1418dd0e95982b115de71672e10c17491affa5b0",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. A timing statistic on public market data, not a finding about any person. No wallet, account or trader is identified or accused, and nothing here is advice to trade.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/nobel-peace-prize-odds-before-announcement/data.json?dataset=the-2025-move-chart",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/nobel-peace-prize-odds-before-announcement/data.csv?dataset=the-2025-move-chart"
      }
    }
  ]
}