{
  "schemaVersion": "vultax-public-research-data-v1",
  "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/nobel-peace-prize-odds-before-announcement",
  "datasets": [
    {
      "title": "What the 2025 market did, minute by minute",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Time (UTC)",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Machado Yes price",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "What happened",
          "unit": null
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "21:29 9 Oct",
          "3.75%",
          "Quoted starting level"
        ],
        [
          "22:42:57 9 Oct",
          "5.0%",
          "First large fill"
        ],
        [
          "22:47 9 Oct",
          "10.1%",
          "Crosses 10%"
        ],
        [
          "23:22 9 Oct",
          "53.1%",
          "Crosses 50%"
        ],
        [
          "23:56 9 Oct",
          "74.15%",
          "Highest before the announcement"
        ],
        [
          "00:00 10 Oct",
          "72.8%",
          "Quoted end level"
        ],
        [
          "08:59 10 Oct",
          "71.65%",
          "Last minute before 09:00"
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Minute prices from Polymarket's CLOB price history; fills from the Polymarket-v1 tape. The chart above uses the 10-minute series.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Boka Qin and Rui Yang — Polymarket-v1 Database (TimeSeventeen)",
          "url": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/TimeSeventeen/Polymarket-v1",
          "note": "Fills for settled markets, 1 January 2025 to 28 April 2026, CC BY 4.0. Vultax computed the windows and counts."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket CLOB API — price history",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "Minute and 10-minute Yes prices for every market in the base rate and for the 2026 candidates."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139",
          "note": "The 2026 market; 32 listed outcomes."
        },
        {
          "label": "CBS News — Possible Nobel Peace Prize leak was 'highly likely' espionage, committee secretary says",
          "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nobel-peace-prize-leak-espionage-committee-secretary/",
          "note": "13 October 2025; Kristian Berg Harpviken's remarks to TV2."
        },
        {
          "label": "Norwegian Nobel Committee — announcement of the Nobel Peace Prize 2026",
          "url": "https://www.nobelpeaceprize.org/press/events/announcement-nobel-peace-prize-2026",
          "note": "Friday 9 October 2026, 11:00 CEST."
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": null,
        "temporalCoverage": null,
        "population": null,
        "methodology": null
      },
      "id": "the-2025-move-table",
      "kind": "published-table",
      "description": "The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize market on Polymarket moved 65.8 points toward the winner in the 12 hours before the announcement, 57 times its largest 12-hour move of the prior 30 days and the largest of 50 award announcements. The 2026 market is measured the same way.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/nobel-peace-prize-odds-before-announcement",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/nobel-peace-prize-odds-before-announcement#the-2025-move",
      "publishedAt": "2026-09-30",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-09-30",
      "version": "752900973607542938a1aab6cfc4b7f658cc5cc4f8ed0a0a317aab87991af685",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. A timing statistic on public market data, not a finding about any person. No wallet, account or trader is identified or accused, and nothing here is advice to trade.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/nobel-peace-prize-odds-before-announcement/data.json?dataset=the-2025-move-table",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/nobel-peace-prize-odds-before-announcement/data.csv?dataset=the-2025-move-table"
      }
    }
  ]
}