# NYC Mayor Odds: Mamdani Was 3.6% on Polymarket in May 2025. He Won
Zohran Mamdani was 2.0% in Polymarket's Democratic primary market in January 2025 and 3.6% in its mayoral market on 24 May, when Andrew Cuomo was 86.5%. He won the primary and the mayoralty; on election night the market passed 99% six minutes after the polls closed.
Canonical URL: https://vultax.com/research/nyc-mayor-odds-polymarket-2025
Author: [Vultax Research Team](https://vultax.com/editorial-policy#who)
Published: 2026-11-04
Last public revision: 2026-11-04
Cite as: Vultax Research Team (2026). NYC Mayor Odds: Mamdani Was 3.6% on Polymarket in May 2025. He Won. Vultax Research notes 2026-042, Vultax Research, Tallinn, 4 November 2026. https://vultax.com/research/nyc-mayor-odds-polymarket-2025
AI-assisted drafting, research and editing. Published by OmniOS OÜ. [How we use AI](https://vultax.com/editorial-policy#ai)
Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. A reading of public market prices at stated times; not a forecast by Vultax and not advice to trade.
## Key figures
- Mamdani at his lowest in the mayoral market, 24 May 2025: 3.6% — Andrew Cuomo was 86.5% the same day. Mamdani won the primary a month later
- Minutes after polls closed that Mamdani passed 99%: 6 — 9:06 p.m. Eastern on 4 November 2025; the AP called the race at about 9:34 p.m.
- Mamdani in the primary market, January 2025: 2.0% — 1 January 2025. Cuomo peaked at 92.5% on 22 May 2025
- Traded in the mayoral market: $429.6m — One of Polymarket's largest markets on a single city election
## The short answer
Zohran Mamdani began 2025 as an outsider in Polymarket's markets. On 1 January 2025 he was 2.0% to win the Democratic nomination for mayor of New York. On 24 May, in the market on the mayoralty itself, he was 3.6% and Andrew Cuomo 86.5%.
Mamdani won the primary on 24 June 2025 and the general election on 4 November, with 50.4% of the vote to Cuomo's 41.6% as an independent and Curtis Sliwa's 7.1%. Turnout passed 2 million, the highest since 1969.
Both nights were short in the market. Mamdani passed 90% in the primary market at 9:28 p.m. Eastern on 24 June, 28 minutes after the polls closed. On 4 November he passed 99% at 9:06 p.m., about 28 minutes before the Associated Press called the race. This page reads the public price record; it is not a forecast.
## The primary: from 2% to the nomination
Polymarket's market on the Democratic nomination opened at the end of December 2024. Cuomo, who had not yet entered the race, led it from early January and rose to 92.5% on 22 May 2025. Mamdani never rose above 14.8% before June.
The turn came in June. Mamdani was 17.1% on 3 June, 28.3% on 17 June and 47.6% on the morning of the primary, 24 June.
## Primary night: 28 minutes
Polls closed at 9 p.m. Eastern. Within three minutes Mamdani's price passed 50%, at 9:03 p.m. Eastern; it passed 90% at 9:28 p.m. Eastern. Cuomo conceded later that night, less than two hours after the polls closed. The full ranked-choice count came later; the market had settled the question within the hour.
Polymarket's Democratic nomination market, last minute price at or before each time.
| Eastern time, 24 June 2025 | Mamdani | Cuomo |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 8:30 p.m. | 41.9% | 57.5% |
| 9:00 p.m., polls close | 43.6% | 57.0% |
| 9:15 p.m. | 71.1% | 29.5% |
| 9:30 p.m. | 94.1% | 7.0% |
| 10:00 p.m. | 99.1% | 1.0% |
[CSV](https://vultax.com/research/nyc-mayor-odds-polymarket-2025/data.csv?dataset=primary-night-table), [JSON](https://vultax.com/research/nyc-mayor-odds-polymarket-2025/data.json?dataset=primary-night-table)
## The general election market
Polymarket's mayoral market opened on 22 April 2025 and traded about 429.6 million dollars, 143 million of it on Mamdani. Cuomo led it on 64 days, until two days after the primary; Mamdani led on the other 131.
Cuomo did not fall to zero when he lost the primary: he stayed on the ballot as an independent, and the day after the primary the market still gave him 47.0%. Eric Adams, the sitting mayor running as an independent, peaked at 26.4% on 8 July. By September Mamdani was above 80%, and he went into election day at 91.7%.
### 2025 New York City mayoral election, four candidates
Polymarket Yes prices, weekly readings at 12:00 UTC, 23 April to 4 November 2025. Percent.
| Category | Zohran Mamdani (%) | Andrew Cuomo (%) | Eric Adams (%) | Curtis Sliwa (%) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 23 Apr | 9.5 | 77.5 | 3.1 | 3.4 |
| 30 Apr | 8 | 77.5 | 3.1 | 2.4 |
| 7 May | 8 | 77.5 | 3.3 | 2.4 |
| 14 May | 7 | 83 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 21 May | 4.5 | 86.5 | 2.7 | 1.8 |
| 28 May | 5.2 | 86.5 | 2.8 | 0.6 |
| 4 Jun | 12.5 | 80 | 5.2 | 0.2 |
| 11 Jun | 23.2 | 68 | 6.9 | 0.2 |
| 18 Jun | 13 | 72.5 | 10 | 1.3 |
| 25 Jun | 37.8 | 47 | 11.5 | 3.4 |
| 2 Jul | 71.5 | 8.5 | 18.5 | 0.9 |
| 9 Jul | 68.9 | 7.5 | 22.3 | 0.9 |
| 16 Jul | 72.2 | 14.7 | 11.2 | 0.9 |
| 23 Jul | 71.7 | 13.5 | 9.6 | 2 |
| 30 Jul | 76.3 | 10 | 8.8 | 2.7 |
| 6 Aug | 81.8 | 7.9 | 7.1 | 2.1 |
| 13 Aug | 82 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 1.4 |
| 20 Aug | 83.3 | 10.2 | 5.2 | 0.7 |
| 27 Aug | 85.8 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 Sep | 85.2 | 12 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 10 Sep | 80.6 | 17.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 17 Sep | 84.2 | 14.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 24 Sep | 88 | 10.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 Oct | 86.3 | 12.7 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| 8 Oct | 88.4 | 10 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 15 Oct | 88.2 | 10.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| 22 Oct | 92.3 | 6.6 | 0.3 | 0.6 |
| 29 Oct | 88.3 | 11.7 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 Nov | 91.7 | 8.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
[CSV](https://vultax.com/research/nyc-mayor-odds-polymarket-2025/data.csv?dataset=the-general-chart), [JSON](https://vultax.com/research/nyc-mayor-odds-polymarket-2025/data.json?dataset=the-general-chart)
## Election night: 99% before the call
On election day Mamdani's price dipped to 88.2% in the early hours and stood at 95.3% an hour before the polls closed. At 9 p.m. it was 97.6%; at 9:06 p.m. Eastern it passed 99%. The Associated Press called the race at about 9:34 p.m., with Mamdani at 50% of the counted vote.
The market's speed is not a prediction made in advance: by 9 p.m. it was reading the same early returns and exit information as everyone else, and pricing them faster than a desk that waits for enough counted votes to call.
## A year later
This page publishes the day after the 2026 midterm elections, when the same question comes up race by race: how far ahead of the call the price moves. The [2024 election-night study](https://vultax.com/research/election-night-odds-polymarket-2024) measured it across states; the [midterm scorecard](https://vultax.com/research/midterm-scorecard-2026) scores the 2026 prices against the results.
## Method and limits
Prices are Polymarket's Yes prices from its public price-history API: daily values for the whole campaign and minute values for both election nights. A candidate leads on a day when it has the highest price; the first daily readings, which can be listing placeholders, are dropped where they sit 30 points or more from the next reading.
Results, the concession and the AP call time are from published reports. Times are Eastern. This page reads public prices; it is not a forecast by Vultax and not advice to trade.
## Questions
### What were Mamdani's odds of becoming mayor?
As low as 3.6% on Polymarket on 24 May 2025, when Cuomo was 86.5%. He went into election day at 91.7% and won with 50.4% of the vote.
### How fast did Polymarket call the 2025 NYC mayoral race?
Mamdani's price passed 99% at 9:06 p.m. Eastern on 4 November 2025, six minutes after the polls closed and about half an hour before the AP called the race.
### Who led the NYC Democratic primary market?
Andrew Cuomo, who peaked at 92.5% on 22 May 2025. Mamdani passed him on primary night, 24 June 2025, within minutes of the polls closing.
## Sources and methodology
- [Polymarket: New York City Mayoral Election](https://polymarket.com/event/new-york-city-mayoral-election) — Settled on Zohran Mamdani, 5 November 2025.
- [Polymarket: Who will win Dem nomination for NYC Mayor?](https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-win-dem-nomination-for-nyc-mayor) — Settled on Zohran Mamdani.
- [Polymarket API: price history](https://docs.polymarket.com/) — Daily and minute Yes prices from the CLOB API. Vultax computed the readings and days led.
- [NBC News: New York City mayor results 2025](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2025-elections/new-york-city-mayor-results) — Mamdani 50.4%, Cuomo 41.6%, Sliwa 7.1%.
- [GV Wire: Zohran Mamdani wins New York City mayoral race, AP projects, 4 November 2025](https://gvwire.com/2025/11/04/zohran-mamdani-wins-new-york-city-mayoral-race-ap-projects/) — The AP call, given there as 6:34 p.m. Pacific.
- [WLOS: Mamdani defeats Cuomo, Sliwa in heated NYC mayoral race](https://wlos.com/news/nation-world/mamdani-defeats-cuomo-sliwa-in-heated-nyc-mayoral-race-new-york-city-voting-hits-record-highs-andrew-cuomo-eric-adams-curtis-sliwa-democrat-socialist-independent-republican-new-york-city) — Turnout above 2 million, the highest since 1969.
- [NBC Los Angeles: Andrew Cuomo concedes to Zohran Mamdani in NYC Democratic mayoral primary](https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/politics/andrew-cuomo-concedes-zohran-mamdani-nyc-democratic-mayor-primary/3731909/)
- [Vultax: election night 2024 on Polymarket](https://vultax.com/research/election-night-odds-polymarket-2024)
- [Per-article scope records and Lean package](https://vultax.com/datasets/research-proof-library-public-2026-10-28/README.md) — Historical scope records and selected Lean checks; the complete package is temporarily unavailable.