{
  "schemaVersion": "vultax-public-research-data-v1",
  "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/nyc-mayor-odds-polymarket-2025",
  "datasets": [
    {
      "title": "Primary night: 28 minutes",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Eastern time, 24 June 2025",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Mamdani",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Cuomo",
          "unit": null
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "8:30 p.m.",
          "41.9%",
          "57.5%"
        ],
        [
          "9:00 p.m., polls close",
          "43.6%",
          "57.0%"
        ],
        [
          "9:15 p.m.",
          "71.1%",
          "29.5%"
        ],
        [
          "9:30 p.m.",
          "94.1%",
          "7.0%"
        ],
        [
          "10:00 p.m.",
          "99.1%",
          "1.0%"
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Polymarket's Democratic nomination market, last minute price at or before each time.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Polymarket: New York City Mayoral Election",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/new-york-city-mayoral-election",
          "note": "Settled on Zohran Mamdani, 5 November 2025."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket: Who will win Dem nomination for NYC Mayor?",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-win-dem-nomination-for-nyc-mayor",
          "note": "Settled on Zohran Mamdani."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket API: price history",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "Daily and minute Yes prices from the CLOB API. Vultax computed the readings and days led."
        },
        {
          "label": "NBC News: New York City mayor results 2025",
          "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2025-elections/new-york-city-mayor-results",
          "note": "Mamdani 50.4%, Cuomo 41.6%, Sliwa 7.1%."
        },
        {
          "label": "GV Wire: Zohran Mamdani wins New York City mayoral race, AP projects, 4 November 2025",
          "url": "https://gvwire.com/2025/11/04/zohran-mamdani-wins-new-york-city-mayoral-race-ap-projects/",
          "note": "The AP call, given there as 6:34 p.m. Pacific."
        },
        {
          "label": "WLOS: Mamdani defeats Cuomo, Sliwa in heated NYC mayoral race",
          "url": "https://wlos.com/news/nation-world/mamdani-defeats-cuomo-sliwa-in-heated-nyc-mayoral-race-new-york-city-voting-hits-record-highs-andrew-cuomo-eric-adams-curtis-sliwa-democrat-socialist-independent-republican-new-york-city",
          "note": "Turnout above 2 million, the highest since 1969."
        },
        {
          "label": "NBC Los Angeles: Andrew Cuomo concedes to Zohran Mamdani in NYC Democratic mayoral primary",
          "url": "https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/politics/andrew-cuomo-concedes-zohran-mamdani-nyc-democratic-mayor-primary/3731909/",
          "note": null
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: election night 2024 on Polymarket",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/election-night-odds-polymarket-2024",
          "note": null
        },
        {
          "label": "Per-article scope records and Lean package",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/research-proof-library-public-2026-10-28/README.md",
          "note": "Historical scope records and selected Lean checks; the complete package is temporarily unavailable."
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2025-06-25T00:30Z/2025-06-25T02:00Z",
        "population": "Mamdani and Cuomo Yes prices, Who will win Dem nomination for NYC Mayor",
        "methodology": "Minute price history from the CLOB API."
      },
      "id": "primary-night-table",
      "kind": "published-table",
      "description": "Zohran Mamdani was 2.0% in Polymarket's Democratic primary market in January 2025 and 3.6% in its mayoral market on 24 May, when Andrew Cuomo was 86.5%. He won the primary and the mayoralty; on election night the market passed 99% six minutes after the polls closed.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/nyc-mayor-odds-polymarket-2025",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/nyc-mayor-odds-polymarket-2025#primary-night",
      "publishedAt": "2026-11-04",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-11-04",
      "version": "4a9abba002e631c75a1c06618fbf187a1950e5dd5a7380aa0f69a8624b386284",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. A reading of public market prices at stated times; not a forecast by Vultax and not advice to trade.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/nyc-mayor-odds-polymarket-2025/data.json?dataset=primary-night-table",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/nyc-mayor-odds-polymarket-2025/data.csv?dataset=primary-night-table"
      }
    }
  ]
}