{
  "schemaVersion": "vultax-public-research-data-v1",
  "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets",
  "datasets": [
    {
      "title": "How much of Polymarket they are",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Day (UTC)",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Hours observed",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Up-or-down share of trades",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Share of notional",
          "unit": null
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "Mon 31 Aug",
          "21",
          "62.4%",
          "14.2%"
        ],
        [
          "Sun 6 Sep",
          "23",
          "53.1%",
          "10.7%"
        ],
        [
          "Mon 7 Sep",
          "22",
          "62.4%",
          "17.6%"
        ],
        [
          "Fri 11 Sep",
          "24",
          "58.2%",
          "17.4%"
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Only days with 21 or more of 24 hours in the record are shown; shares are of the trades and notional observed in those hours.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — BTC Up or Down 5m series",
          "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/series?slug=btc-up-or-down-5m",
          "note": "Series volume counter read 18:55 UTC, 12 September 2026"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Bitcoin Up or Down, 12 September 2:45PM–2:50PM ET",
          "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events/slug/btc-updown-5m-1789238700",
          "note": "Market rules, resolution source and fee schedule (crypto_fees_v2, rate 0.07, taker only, 20% rebate)"
        },
        {
          "label": "Chainlink — BTC/USD TWAP 60-second data stream",
          "url": "https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams",
          "note": "Resolution source named in the Bitcoin market rules"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — trading fees",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/trading/fees",
          "note": "Taker formula and category rates; crypto taker rate 0.07, makers pay nothing; read 2026-09-12"
        },
        {
          "label": "Pine Analytics — Polymarket fee rollout",
          "url": "https://pineanalytics.substack.com/p/polymarket-fee-rollout",
          "note": "Third-party reconstruction of the fee timeline; not a Polymarket announcement"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: 1.6% of Polymarket wallets never sleep",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-wallets-that-never-sleep-trading-cadence",
          "note": "Always-on wallets and their share of trades"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: Polymarket copy trading costs",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-copy-trading-costs-and-tools",
          "note": "Fee arithmetic for followers"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: Is Polymarket legal in the US?",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/is-polymarket-legal-in-the-us-2026",
          "note": "Kalshi's sports share of contracts traded"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket CLOB — price history",
          "url": "https://clob.polymarket.com/prices-history",
          "note": "One-minute price history for the Up token of each sampled market"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket Gamma API — closed up-or-down events",
          "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events/keyset?closed=true&series_slug=btc-up-or-down-5m",
          "note": "Four series, 9,986 markets ending 30 August to 12 September 2026, with final outcomes"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: Polymarket fair-value calibration",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-market-fair-value-calibration",
          "note": "Earlier test of prices against resolved markets"
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2026-08-31/2026-09-11",
        "population": "Four days with at least 21 observed hours",
        "methodology": "Daily sums of the hourly record, up-or-down markets against all markets."
      },
      "id": "share-by-interval-table",
      "kind": "published-table",
      "description": "Vultax counted 15.0 million Polymarket trades over 251 hours: 59.6% were up-or-down crypto bets, 379 wallets made most of them, and takers paid about 1.6% of notional on five-minute trades. In 2,497 markets checked against outcomes, Up won 50.2% and favourites won as often as priced.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets#share-by-interval",
      "publishedAt": "2026-09-15",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-09-16",
      "version": "38e03c3d380969579955fe537bcf130c903821f8fe36ac2ae4bdaaec642fe435",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Figures describe trades recorded by Vultax's Polymarket flow record in 251 observed hours and are shares of that record, not of all venue volume. Fees are computed from published rates. Calibration figures come from a two-week sample of Bitcoin and Ether markets priced from one-minute history; past calibration does not guarantee future pricing. Nothing here is a recommendation to trade or financial advice.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets/data.json?dataset=share-by-interval-table",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets/data.csv?dataset=share-by-interval-table"
      }
    },
    {
      "title": "Up-or-down markets as a share of all observed Polymarket activity",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Category",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Share of trades",
          "unit": "%"
        },
        {
          "name": "Share of notional",
          "unit": "%"
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "5-minute",
          45.73,
          11.81
        ],
        [
          "15-minute",
          11.42,
          2.85
        ],
        [
          "Hourly",
          1.58,
          0.59
        ],
        [
          "4-hour",
          0.41,
          0.18
        ],
        [
          "Daily",
          0.4,
          0.28
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Share of 14,973,743 trades and of $727.0 million notional, 251 observed hours, 21 Aug to 12 Sep 2026",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — BTC Up or Down 5m series",
          "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/series?slug=btc-up-or-down-5m",
          "note": "Series volume counter read 18:55 UTC, 12 September 2026"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Bitcoin Up or Down, 12 September 2:45PM–2:50PM ET",
          "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events/slug/btc-updown-5m-1789238700",
          "note": "Market rules, resolution source and fee schedule (crypto_fees_v2, rate 0.07, taker only, 20% rebate)"
        },
        {
          "label": "Chainlink — BTC/USD TWAP 60-second data stream",
          "url": "https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams",
          "note": "Resolution source named in the Bitcoin market rules"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — trading fees",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/trading/fees",
          "note": "Taker formula and category rates; crypto taker rate 0.07, makers pay nothing; read 2026-09-12"
        },
        {
          "label": "Pine Analytics — Polymarket fee rollout",
          "url": "https://pineanalytics.substack.com/p/polymarket-fee-rollout",
          "note": "Third-party reconstruction of the fee timeline; not a Polymarket announcement"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: 1.6% of Polymarket wallets never sleep",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-wallets-that-never-sleep-trading-cadence",
          "note": "Always-on wallets and their share of trades"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: Polymarket copy trading costs",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-copy-trading-costs-and-tools",
          "note": "Fee arithmetic for followers"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: Is Polymarket legal in the US?",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/is-polymarket-legal-in-the-us-2026",
          "note": "Kalshi's sports share of contracts traded"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket CLOB — price history",
          "url": "https://clob.polymarket.com/prices-history",
          "note": "One-minute price history for the Up token of each sampled market"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket Gamma API — closed up-or-down events",
          "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events/keyset?closed=true&series_slug=btc-up-or-down-5m",
          "note": "Four series, 9,986 markets ending 30 August to 12 September 2026, with final outcomes"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: Polymarket fair-value calibration",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-market-fair-value-calibration",
          "note": "Earlier test of prices against resolved markets"
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2026-08-21T12:00Z/2026-09-12T18:00Z",
        "population": "14,973,743 Polymarket trades in 251 observed hours",
        "methodology": "Trades and notional from Vultax's hourly Polymarket flow record, classified by market title (\"Up or Down\") and market slug interval."
      },
      "id": "share-by-interval-chart",
      "kind": "published-chart",
      "description": "Vultax counted 15.0 million Polymarket trades over 251 hours: 59.6% were up-or-down crypto bets, 379 wallets made most of them, and takers paid about 1.6% of notional on five-minute trades. In 2,497 markets checked against outcomes, Up won 50.2% and favourites won as often as priced.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets#share-by-interval",
      "publishedAt": "2026-09-15",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-09-16",
      "version": "4aff9a412c3f78953ef93fbce5fdbb61bb35599378adb6083118bf3b87f3d163",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Figures describe trades recorded by Vultax's Polymarket flow record in 251 observed hours and are shares of that record, not of all venue volume. Fees are computed from published rates. Calibration figures come from a two-week sample of Bitcoin and Ether markets priced from one-minute history; past calibration does not guarantee future pricing. Nothing here is a recommendation to trade or financial advice.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets/data.json?dataset=share-by-interval-chart",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets/data.csv?dataset=share-by-interval-chart"
      }
    },
    {
      "title": "Up-or-down trades by asset, as a share of all observed Polymarket trades",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Category",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Share of all trades",
          "unit": "%"
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "Bitcoin",
          39.2
        ],
        [
          "Ethereum",
          8.2
        ],
        [
          "Solana",
          3.5
        ],
        [
          "XRP",
          2.6
        ],
        [
          "BNB",
          2.2
        ],
        [
          "Dogecoin",
          1.9
        ],
        [
          "Hyperliquid",
          1.7
        ],
        [
          "Stocks, indices and other",
          0.3
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "251 observed hours, 21 Aug to 12 Sep 2026. All intervals combined.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — BTC Up or Down 5m series",
          "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/series?slug=btc-up-or-down-5m",
          "note": "Series volume counter read 18:55 UTC, 12 September 2026"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Bitcoin Up or Down, 12 September 2:45PM–2:50PM ET",
          "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events/slug/btc-updown-5m-1789238700",
          "note": "Market rules, resolution source and fee schedule (crypto_fees_v2, rate 0.07, taker only, 20% rebate)"
        },
        {
          "label": "Chainlink — BTC/USD TWAP 60-second data stream",
          "url": "https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams",
          "note": "Resolution source named in the Bitcoin market rules"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — trading fees",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/trading/fees",
          "note": "Taker formula and category rates; crypto taker rate 0.07, makers pay nothing; read 2026-09-12"
        },
        {
          "label": "Pine Analytics — Polymarket fee rollout",
          "url": "https://pineanalytics.substack.com/p/polymarket-fee-rollout",
          "note": "Third-party reconstruction of the fee timeline; not a Polymarket announcement"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: 1.6% of Polymarket wallets never sleep",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-wallets-that-never-sleep-trading-cadence",
          "note": "Always-on wallets and their share of trades"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: Polymarket copy trading costs",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-copy-trading-costs-and-tools",
          "note": "Fee arithmetic for followers"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: Is Polymarket legal in the US?",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/is-polymarket-legal-in-the-us-2026",
          "note": "Kalshi's sports share of contracts traded"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket CLOB — price history",
          "url": "https://clob.polymarket.com/prices-history",
          "note": "One-minute price history for the Up token of each sampled market"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket Gamma API — closed up-or-down events",
          "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events/keyset?closed=true&series_slug=btc-up-or-down-5m",
          "note": "Four series, 9,986 markets ending 30 August to 12 September 2026, with final outcomes"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: Polymarket fair-value calibration",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-market-fair-value-calibration",
          "note": "Earlier test of prices against resolved markets"
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2026-08-21T12:00Z/2026-09-12T18:00Z",
        "population": "8,916,942 up-or-down trades",
        "methodology": "Asset taken from the market slug or title; shares are of all 14,973,743 observed trades."
      },
      "id": "bitcoin-chart",
      "kind": "published-chart",
      "description": "Vultax counted 15.0 million Polymarket trades over 251 hours: 59.6% were up-or-down crypto bets, 379 wallets made most of them, and takers paid about 1.6% of notional on five-minute trades. In 2,497 markets checked against outcomes, Up won 50.2% and favourites won as often as priced.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets#bitcoin",
      "publishedAt": "2026-09-15",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-09-16",
      "version": "07b20dba7f04e7ec7e4ae2c074d53f33c1788176a7f67df66086d9b1af0c03a5",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Figures describe trades recorded by Vultax's Polymarket flow record in 251 observed hours and are shares of that record, not of all venue volume. Fees are computed from published rates. Calibration figures come from a two-week sample of Bitcoin and Ether markets priced from one-minute history; past calibration does not guarantee future pricing. Nothing here is a recommendation to trade or financial advice.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets/data.json?dataset=bitcoin-chart",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets/data.csv?dataset=bitcoin-chart"
      }
    },
    {
      "title": "Up-or-down share of observed trades, by hour of day",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Category",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Up-or-down share of trades",
          "unit": "%"
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "00",
          60.3
        ],
        [
          "01",
          61.7
        ],
        [
          "02",
          63.9
        ],
        [
          "03",
          65.2
        ],
        [
          "04",
          62.9
        ],
        [
          "05",
          66
        ],
        [
          "06",
          64.9
        ],
        [
          "07",
          65
        ],
        [
          "08",
          61.9
        ],
        [
          "09",
          59.4
        ],
        [
          "10",
          56
        ],
        [
          "11",
          59.2
        ],
        [
          "12",
          57
        ],
        [
          "13",
          62.7
        ],
        [
          "14",
          61.9
        ],
        [
          "15",
          55.7
        ],
        [
          "16",
          54.4
        ],
        [
          "17",
          53.6
        ],
        [
          "18",
          53
        ],
        [
          "19",
          52.4
        ],
        [
          "20",
          53.3
        ],
        [
          "21",
          59.2
        ],
        [
          "22",
          62.1
        ],
        [
          "23",
          63.2
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "UTC hour. Each point averages 6 to 15 observed hours between 21 Aug and 12 Sep 2026.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — BTC Up or Down 5m series",
          "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/series?slug=btc-up-or-down-5m",
          "note": "Series volume counter read 18:55 UTC, 12 September 2026"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Bitcoin Up or Down, 12 September 2:45PM–2:50PM ET",
          "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events/slug/btc-updown-5m-1789238700",
          "note": "Market rules, resolution source and fee schedule (crypto_fees_v2, rate 0.07, taker only, 20% rebate)"
        },
        {
          "label": "Chainlink — BTC/USD TWAP 60-second data stream",
          "url": "https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams",
          "note": "Resolution source named in the Bitcoin market rules"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — trading fees",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/trading/fees",
          "note": "Taker formula and category rates; crypto taker rate 0.07, makers pay nothing; read 2026-09-12"
        },
        {
          "label": "Pine Analytics — Polymarket fee rollout",
          "url": "https://pineanalytics.substack.com/p/polymarket-fee-rollout",
          "note": "Third-party reconstruction of the fee timeline; not a Polymarket announcement"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: 1.6% of Polymarket wallets never sleep",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-wallets-that-never-sleep-trading-cadence",
          "note": "Always-on wallets and their share of trades"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: Polymarket copy trading costs",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-copy-trading-costs-and-tools",
          "note": "Fee arithmetic for followers"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: Is Polymarket legal in the US?",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/is-polymarket-legal-in-the-us-2026",
          "note": "Kalshi's sports share of contracts traded"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket CLOB — price history",
          "url": "https://clob.polymarket.com/prices-history",
          "note": "One-minute price history for the Up token of each sampled market"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket Gamma API — closed up-or-down events",
          "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events/keyset?closed=true&series_slug=btc-up-or-down-5m",
          "note": "Four series, 9,986 markets ending 30 August to 12 September 2026, with final outcomes"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: Polymarket fair-value calibration",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-market-fair-value-calibration",
          "note": "Earlier test of prices against resolved markets"
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2026-08-21T12:00Z/2026-09-12T18:00Z",
        "population": "251 observed hours",
        "methodology": "Up-or-down trades divided by all trades, pooled by UTC hour of day."
      },
      "id": "when-chart",
      "kind": "published-chart",
      "description": "Vultax counted 15.0 million Polymarket trades over 251 hours: 59.6% were up-or-down crypto bets, 379 wallets made most of them, and takers paid about 1.6% of notional on five-minute trades. In 2,497 markets checked against outcomes, Up won 50.2% and favourites won as often as priced.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets#when",
      "publishedAt": "2026-09-15",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-09-16",
      "version": "a013edc58d360f21df70b52cd54637a7db016e478db966c8c0ef72c74b3b5624",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Figures describe trades recorded by Vultax's Polymarket flow record in 251 observed hours and are shares of that record, not of all venue volume. Fees are computed from published rates. Calibration figures come from a two-week sample of Bitcoin and Ether markets priced from one-minute history; past calibration does not guarantee future pricing. Nothing here is a recommendation to trade or financial advice.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets/data.json?dataset=when-chart",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets/data.csv?dataset=when-chart"
      }
    },
    {
      "title": "How often Up won, against Up's half-way price",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Category",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "How often Up won",
          "unit": "%"
        },
        {
          "name": "Average price of Up",
          "unit": "%"
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "0–10¢",
          3.8,
          4.5
        ],
        [
          "10–20¢",
          11,
          14.6
        ],
        [
          "20–30¢",
          29.9,
          24.8
        ],
        [
          "30–40¢",
          38.6,
          34.5
        ],
        [
          "40–50¢",
          46.7,
          45.1
        ],
        [
          "50–60¢",
          56.1,
          53.8
        ],
        [
          "60–70¢",
          66.5,
          65.2
        ],
        [
          "70–80¢",
          74.1,
          75.1
        ],
        [
          "80–90¢",
          82.3,
          85
        ],
        [
          "90–100¢",
          96.9,
          95.9
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "2,497 Bitcoin and Ether up-or-down markets, 30 Aug to 12 Sep 2026, grouped into ten-cent price bands",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — BTC Up or Down 5m series",
          "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/series?slug=btc-up-or-down-5m",
          "note": "Series volume counter read 18:55 UTC, 12 September 2026"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Bitcoin Up or Down, 12 September 2:45PM–2:50PM ET",
          "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events/slug/btc-updown-5m-1789238700",
          "note": "Market rules, resolution source and fee schedule (crypto_fees_v2, rate 0.07, taker only, 20% rebate)"
        },
        {
          "label": "Chainlink — BTC/USD TWAP 60-second data stream",
          "url": "https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams",
          "note": "Resolution source named in the Bitcoin market rules"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — trading fees",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/trading/fees",
          "note": "Taker formula and category rates; crypto taker rate 0.07, makers pay nothing; read 2026-09-12"
        },
        {
          "label": "Pine Analytics — Polymarket fee rollout",
          "url": "https://pineanalytics.substack.com/p/polymarket-fee-rollout",
          "note": "Third-party reconstruction of the fee timeline; not a Polymarket announcement"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: 1.6% of Polymarket wallets never sleep",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-wallets-that-never-sleep-trading-cadence",
          "note": "Always-on wallets and their share of trades"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: Polymarket copy trading costs",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-copy-trading-costs-and-tools",
          "note": "Fee arithmetic for followers"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: Is Polymarket legal in the US?",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/is-polymarket-legal-in-the-us-2026",
          "note": "Kalshi's sports share of contracts traded"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket CLOB — price history",
          "url": "https://clob.polymarket.com/prices-history",
          "note": "One-minute price history for the Up token of each sampled market"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket Gamma API — closed up-or-down events",
          "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events/keyset?closed=true&series_slug=btc-up-or-down-5m",
          "note": "Four series, 9,986 markets ending 30 August to 12 September 2026, with final outcomes"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: Polymarket fair-value calibration",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-market-fair-value-calibration",
          "note": "Earlier test of prices against resolved markets"
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2026-08-30/2026-09-12",
        "population": "2,487 sampled markets with a half-way price",
        "methodology": "Up's last one-minute price at or before the half-way point, grouped into ten-cent bands; share of each band that resolved Up."
      },
      "id": "calibration-chart",
      "kind": "published-chart",
      "description": "Vultax counted 15.0 million Polymarket trades over 251 hours: 59.6% were up-or-down crypto bets, 379 wallets made most of them, and takers paid about 1.6% of notional on five-minute trades. In 2,497 markets checked against outcomes, Up won 50.2% and favourites won as often as priced.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets#calibration",
      "publishedAt": "2026-09-15",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-09-16",
      "version": "cf6ae9ffc784da0dc04319ce04ef6c574137ed49ab09f8e68144f9e6d8e84ae3",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Figures describe trades recorded by Vultax's Polymarket flow record in 251 observed hours and are shares of that record, not of all venue volume. Fees are computed from published rates. Calibration figures come from a two-week sample of Bitcoin and Ether markets priced from one-minute history; past calibration does not guarantee future pricing. Nothing here is a recommendation to trade or financial advice.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets/data.json?dataset=calibration-chart",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets/data.csv?dataset=calibration-chart"
      }
    },
    {
      "title": "Three moments, no edge before the fee",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Moment",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Markets",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Favourite's average price",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Favourite won",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Result per share before fees",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "95% range",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "After taker fee",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Accuracy gain over a coin flip",
          "unit": null
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "One minute after open",
          "2,417",
          "63.2¢",
          "63.9%",
          "+0.68¢",
          "−0.82¢ to +2.24¢",
          "−0.84¢",
          "17%"
        ],
        [
          "Half-way",
          "2,276",
          "75.0¢",
          "74.6%",
          "−0.40¢",
          "−2.04¢ to +1.23¢",
          "−1.56¢",
          "39%"
        ],
        [
          "One minute before close",
          "1,990",
          "79.0¢",
          "79.0%",
          "+0.09¢",
          "−1.59¢ to +1.82¢",
          "−0.90¢",
          "53%"
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Favourites priced between 50 and 98 cents. Result is payout minus price; the 95% range resamples whole days. After taker fee subtracts 0.07 × p × (1 − p) per share. Accuracy gain is one minus the ratio of the prices' Brier score to that of a constant 50% guess, across all sampled markets.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — BTC Up or Down 5m series",
          "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/series?slug=btc-up-or-down-5m",
          "note": "Series volume counter read 18:55 UTC, 12 September 2026"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Bitcoin Up or Down, 12 September 2:45PM–2:50PM ET",
          "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events/slug/btc-updown-5m-1789238700",
          "note": "Market rules, resolution source and fee schedule (crypto_fees_v2, rate 0.07, taker only, 20% rebate)"
        },
        {
          "label": "Chainlink — BTC/USD TWAP 60-second data stream",
          "url": "https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams",
          "note": "Resolution source named in the Bitcoin market rules"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — trading fees",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/trading/fees",
          "note": "Taker formula and category rates; crypto taker rate 0.07, makers pay nothing; read 2026-09-12"
        },
        {
          "label": "Pine Analytics — Polymarket fee rollout",
          "url": "https://pineanalytics.substack.com/p/polymarket-fee-rollout",
          "note": "Third-party reconstruction of the fee timeline; not a Polymarket announcement"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: 1.6% of Polymarket wallets never sleep",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-wallets-that-never-sleep-trading-cadence",
          "note": "Always-on wallets and their share of trades"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: Polymarket copy trading costs",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-copy-trading-costs-and-tools",
          "note": "Fee arithmetic for followers"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: Is Polymarket legal in the US?",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/is-polymarket-legal-in-the-us-2026",
          "note": "Kalshi's sports share of contracts traded"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket CLOB — price history",
          "url": "https://clob.polymarket.com/prices-history",
          "note": "One-minute price history for the Up token of each sampled market"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket Gamma API — closed up-or-down events",
          "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events/keyset?closed=true&series_slug=btc-up-or-down-5m",
          "note": "Four series, 9,986 markets ending 30 August to 12 September 2026, with final outcomes"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: Polymarket fair-value calibration",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-market-fair-value-calibration",
          "note": "Earlier test of prices against resolved markets"
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2026-08-30/2026-09-12",
        "population": "2,497 sampled Bitcoin and Ether up-or-down markets",
        "methodology": "Last one-minute price at or before each moment; favourite's payout minus price, averaged; day-resampled bootstrap; Brier skill against 0.5."
      },
      "id": "three-moments-table",
      "kind": "published-table",
      "description": "Vultax counted 15.0 million Polymarket trades over 251 hours: 59.6% were up-or-down crypto bets, 379 wallets made most of them, and takers paid about 1.6% of notional on five-minute trades. In 2,497 markets checked against outcomes, Up won 50.2% and favourites won as often as priced.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets#three-moments",
      "publishedAt": "2026-09-15",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-09-16",
      "version": "d2aa9506421c5b63da8d4f1039db3a6d476644cd66ba9a225da2611579b4720a",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Figures describe trades recorded by Vultax's Polymarket flow record in 251 observed hours and are shares of that record, not of all venue volume. Fees are computed from published rates. Calibration figures come from a two-week sample of Bitcoin and Ether markets priced from one-minute history; past calibration does not guarantee future pricing. Nothing here is a recommendation to trade or financial advice.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets/data.json?dataset=three-moments-table",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets/data.csv?dataset=three-moments-table"
      }
    },
    {
      "title": "What it costs to play: the fee is the edge",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Market",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Trades in sample",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Notional",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Taker fee at the published rate",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Share of notional",
          "unit": null
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "5-minute",
          "66,448",
          "$987,939",
          "$15,802",
          "1.60%"
        ],
        [
          "15-minute",
          "17,209",
          "$269,656",
          "$6,032",
          "2.24%"
        ],
        [
          "Hourly",
          "2,771",
          "$53,089",
          "$1,060",
          "2.00%"
        ],
        [
          "4-hour",
          "1,120",
          "$23,192",
          "$520",
          "2.24%"
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Fees are computed from each trade's price and size at the published 0.07 rate, not read from settlement records, and assume the recorded side of each trade is the taker. Sample: up-or-down trades between 15:06 and 18:55 UTC, 12 September 2026. Makers pay no fee and share a 20% rebate.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — BTC Up or Down 5m series",
          "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/series?slug=btc-up-or-down-5m",
          "note": "Series volume counter read 18:55 UTC, 12 September 2026"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Bitcoin Up or Down, 12 September 2:45PM–2:50PM ET",
          "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events/slug/btc-updown-5m-1789238700",
          "note": "Market rules, resolution source and fee schedule (crypto_fees_v2, rate 0.07, taker only, 20% rebate)"
        },
        {
          "label": "Chainlink — BTC/USD TWAP 60-second data stream",
          "url": "https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams",
          "note": "Resolution source named in the Bitcoin market rules"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — trading fees",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/trading/fees",
          "note": "Taker formula and category rates; crypto taker rate 0.07, makers pay nothing; read 2026-09-12"
        },
        {
          "label": "Pine Analytics — Polymarket fee rollout",
          "url": "https://pineanalytics.substack.com/p/polymarket-fee-rollout",
          "note": "Third-party reconstruction of the fee timeline; not a Polymarket announcement"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: 1.6% of Polymarket wallets never sleep",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-wallets-that-never-sleep-trading-cadence",
          "note": "Always-on wallets and their share of trades"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: Polymarket copy trading costs",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-copy-trading-costs-and-tools",
          "note": "Fee arithmetic for followers"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: Is Polymarket legal in the US?",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/is-polymarket-legal-in-the-us-2026",
          "note": "Kalshi's sports share of contracts traded"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket CLOB — price history",
          "url": "https://clob.polymarket.com/prices-history",
          "note": "One-minute price history for the Up token of each sampled market"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket Gamma API — closed up-or-down events",
          "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events/keyset?closed=true&series_slug=btc-up-or-down-5m",
          "note": "Four series, 9,986 markets ending 30 August to 12 September 2026, with final outcomes"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: Polymarket fair-value calibration",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-market-fair-value-calibration",
          "note": "Earlier test of prices against resolved markets"
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "illustrative",
        "temporalCoverage": "2026-09-12T15:06Z/2026-09-12T18:55Z",
        "population": "87,548 up-or-down trades",
        "methodology": "Sum of 0.07 × size × price × (1 − price) per trade, divided by the sum of size × price."
      },
      "id": "cost-table",
      "kind": "published-table",
      "description": "Vultax counted 15.0 million Polymarket trades over 251 hours: 59.6% were up-or-down crypto bets, 379 wallets made most of them, and takers paid about 1.6% of notional on five-minute trades. In 2,497 markets checked against outcomes, Up won 50.2% and favourites won as often as priced.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets#cost",
      "publishedAt": "2026-09-15",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-09-16",
      "version": "510400eedd883275bd4a1a863eb9730ef7560111f2fb807197a7c43253bf2e88",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Figures describe trades recorded by Vultax's Polymarket flow record in 251 observed hours and are shares of that record, not of all venue volume. Fees are computed from published rates. Calibration figures come from a two-week sample of Bitcoin and Ether markets priced from one-minute history; past calibration does not guarantee future pricing. Nothing here is a recommendation to trade or financial advice.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets/data.json?dataset=cost-table",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets/data.csv?dataset=cost-table"
      }
    }
  ]
}