{
  "schemaVersion": "vultax-public-research-data-v1",
  "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets",
  "datasets": [
    {
      "title": "How often Up won, against Up's half-way price",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Category",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "How often Up won",
          "unit": "%"
        },
        {
          "name": "Average price of Up",
          "unit": "%"
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "0–10¢",
          3.8,
          4.5
        ],
        [
          "10–20¢",
          11,
          14.6
        ],
        [
          "20–30¢",
          29.9,
          24.8
        ],
        [
          "30–40¢",
          38.6,
          34.5
        ],
        [
          "40–50¢",
          46.7,
          45.1
        ],
        [
          "50–60¢",
          56.1,
          53.8
        ],
        [
          "60–70¢",
          66.5,
          65.2
        ],
        [
          "70–80¢",
          74.1,
          75.1
        ],
        [
          "80–90¢",
          82.3,
          85
        ],
        [
          "90–100¢",
          96.9,
          95.9
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "2,497 Bitcoin and Ether up-or-down markets, 30 Aug to 12 Sep 2026, grouped into ten-cent price bands",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — BTC Up or Down 5m series",
          "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/series?slug=btc-up-or-down-5m",
          "note": "Series volume counter read 18:55 UTC, 12 September 2026"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Bitcoin Up or Down, 12 September 2:45PM–2:50PM ET",
          "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events/slug/btc-updown-5m-1789238700",
          "note": "Market rules, resolution source and fee schedule (crypto_fees_v2, rate 0.07, taker only, 20% rebate)"
        },
        {
          "label": "Chainlink — BTC/USD TWAP 60-second data stream",
          "url": "https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams",
          "note": "Resolution source named in the Bitcoin market rules"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — trading fees",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/trading/fees",
          "note": "Taker formula and category rates; crypto taker rate 0.07, makers pay nothing; read 2026-09-12"
        },
        {
          "label": "Pine Analytics — Polymarket fee rollout",
          "url": "https://pineanalytics.substack.com/p/polymarket-fee-rollout",
          "note": "Third-party reconstruction of the fee timeline; not a Polymarket announcement"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: 1.6% of Polymarket wallets never sleep",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-wallets-that-never-sleep-trading-cadence",
          "note": "Always-on wallets and their share of trades"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: Polymarket copy trading costs",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-copy-trading-costs-and-tools",
          "note": "Fee arithmetic for followers"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: Is Polymarket legal in the US?",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/is-polymarket-legal-in-the-us-2026",
          "note": "Kalshi's sports share of contracts traded"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket CLOB — price history",
          "url": "https://clob.polymarket.com/prices-history",
          "note": "One-minute price history for the Up token of each sampled market"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket Gamma API — closed up-or-down events",
          "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events/keyset?closed=true&series_slug=btc-up-or-down-5m",
          "note": "Four series, 9,986 markets ending 30 August to 12 September 2026, with final outcomes"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: Polymarket fair-value calibration",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-market-fair-value-calibration",
          "note": "Earlier test of prices against resolved markets"
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2026-08-30/2026-09-12",
        "population": "2,487 sampled markets with a half-way price",
        "methodology": "Up's last one-minute price at or before the half-way point, grouped into ten-cent bands; share of each band that resolved Up."
      },
      "id": "calibration-chart",
      "kind": "published-chart",
      "description": "Vultax counted 15.0 million Polymarket trades over 251 hours: 59.6% were up-or-down crypto bets, 379 wallets made most of them, and takers paid about 1.6% of notional on five-minute trades. In 2,497 markets checked against outcomes, Up won 50.2% and favourites won as often as priced.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets#calibration",
      "publishedAt": "2026-09-15",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-09-16",
      "version": "cf6ae9ffc784da0dc04319ce04ef6c574137ed49ab09f8e68144f9e6d8e84ae3",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Figures describe trades recorded by Vultax's Polymarket flow record in 251 observed hours and are shares of that record, not of all venue volume. Fees are computed from published rates. Calibration figures come from a two-week sample of Bitcoin and Ether markets priced from one-minute history; past calibration does not guarantee future pricing. Nothing here is a recommendation to trade or financial advice.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets/data.json?dataset=calibration-chart",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets/data.csv?dataset=calibration-chart"
      }
    }
  ]
}