{
  "schemaVersion": "vultax-public-research-data-v1",
  "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets",
  "datasets": [
    {
      "title": "Three moments, no edge before the fee",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Moment",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Markets",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Favourite's average price",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Favourite won",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Result per share before fees",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "95% range",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "After taker fee",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Accuracy gain over a coin flip",
          "unit": null
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "One minute after open",
          "2,417",
          "63.2¢",
          "63.9%",
          "+0.68¢",
          "−0.82¢ to +2.24¢",
          "−0.84¢",
          "17%"
        ],
        [
          "Half-way",
          "2,276",
          "75.0¢",
          "74.6%",
          "−0.40¢",
          "−2.04¢ to +1.23¢",
          "−1.56¢",
          "39%"
        ],
        [
          "One minute before close",
          "1,990",
          "79.0¢",
          "79.0%",
          "+0.09¢",
          "−1.59¢ to +1.82¢",
          "−0.90¢",
          "53%"
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Favourites priced between 50 and 98 cents. Result is payout minus price; the 95% range resamples whole days. After taker fee subtracts 0.07 × p × (1 − p) per share. Accuracy gain is one minus the ratio of the prices' Brier score to that of a constant 50% guess, across all sampled markets.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — BTC Up or Down 5m series",
          "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/series?slug=btc-up-or-down-5m",
          "note": "Series volume counter read 18:55 UTC, 12 September 2026"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Bitcoin Up or Down, 12 September 2:45PM–2:50PM ET",
          "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events/slug/btc-updown-5m-1789238700",
          "note": "Market rules, resolution source and fee schedule (crypto_fees_v2, rate 0.07, taker only, 20% rebate)"
        },
        {
          "label": "Chainlink — BTC/USD TWAP 60-second data stream",
          "url": "https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams",
          "note": "Resolution source named in the Bitcoin market rules"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — trading fees",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/trading/fees",
          "note": "Taker formula and category rates; crypto taker rate 0.07, makers pay nothing; read 2026-09-12"
        },
        {
          "label": "Pine Analytics — Polymarket fee rollout",
          "url": "https://pineanalytics.substack.com/p/polymarket-fee-rollout",
          "note": "Third-party reconstruction of the fee timeline; not a Polymarket announcement"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: 1.6% of Polymarket wallets never sleep",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-wallets-that-never-sleep-trading-cadence",
          "note": "Always-on wallets and their share of trades"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: Polymarket copy trading costs",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-copy-trading-costs-and-tools",
          "note": "Fee arithmetic for followers"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: Is Polymarket legal in the US?",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/is-polymarket-legal-in-the-us-2026",
          "note": "Kalshi's sports share of contracts traded"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket CLOB — price history",
          "url": "https://clob.polymarket.com/prices-history",
          "note": "One-minute price history for the Up token of each sampled market"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket Gamma API — closed up-or-down events",
          "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events/keyset?closed=true&series_slug=btc-up-or-down-5m",
          "note": "Four series, 9,986 markets ending 30 August to 12 September 2026, with final outcomes"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: Polymarket fair-value calibration",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-market-fair-value-calibration",
          "note": "Earlier test of prices against resolved markets"
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2026-08-30/2026-09-12",
        "population": "2,497 sampled Bitcoin and Ether up-or-down markets",
        "methodology": "Last one-minute price at or before each moment; favourite's payout minus price, averaged; day-resampled bootstrap; Brier skill against 0.5."
      },
      "id": "three-moments-table",
      "kind": "published-table",
      "description": "Vultax counted 15.0 million Polymarket trades over 251 hours: 59.6% were up-or-down crypto bets, 379 wallets made most of them, and takers paid about 1.6% of notional on five-minute trades. In 2,497 markets checked against outcomes, Up won 50.2% and favourites won as often as priced.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets#three-moments",
      "publishedAt": "2026-09-15",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-09-16",
      "version": "d2aa9506421c5b63da8d4f1039db3a6d476644cd66ba9a225da2611579b4720a",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Figures describe trades recorded by Vultax's Polymarket flow record in 251 observed hours and are shares of that record, not of all venue volume. Fees are computed from published rates. Calibration figures come from a two-week sample of Bitcoin and Ether markets priced from one-minute history; past calibration does not guarantee future pricing. Nothing here is a recommendation to trade or financial advice.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets/data.json?dataset=three-moments-table",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets/data.csv?dataset=three-moments-table"
      }
    }
  ]
}