{
  "schemaVersion": "vultax-public-research-data-v1",
  "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets",
  "datasets": [
    {
      "title": "Up-or-down share of observed trades, by hour of day",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Category",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Up-or-down share of trades",
          "unit": "%"
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "00",
          60.3
        ],
        [
          "01",
          61.7
        ],
        [
          "02",
          63.9
        ],
        [
          "03",
          65.2
        ],
        [
          "04",
          62.9
        ],
        [
          "05",
          66
        ],
        [
          "06",
          64.9
        ],
        [
          "07",
          65
        ],
        [
          "08",
          61.9
        ],
        [
          "09",
          59.4
        ],
        [
          "10",
          56
        ],
        [
          "11",
          59.2
        ],
        [
          "12",
          57
        ],
        [
          "13",
          62.7
        ],
        [
          "14",
          61.9
        ],
        [
          "15",
          55.7
        ],
        [
          "16",
          54.4
        ],
        [
          "17",
          53.6
        ],
        [
          "18",
          53
        ],
        [
          "19",
          52.4
        ],
        [
          "20",
          53.3
        ],
        [
          "21",
          59.2
        ],
        [
          "22",
          62.1
        ],
        [
          "23",
          63.2
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "UTC hour. Each point averages 6 to 15 observed hours between 21 Aug and 12 Sep 2026.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — BTC Up or Down 5m series",
          "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/series?slug=btc-up-or-down-5m",
          "note": "Series volume counter read 18:55 UTC, 12 September 2026"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Bitcoin Up or Down, 12 September 2:45PM–2:50PM ET",
          "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events/slug/btc-updown-5m-1789238700",
          "note": "Market rules, resolution source and fee schedule (crypto_fees_v2, rate 0.07, taker only, 20% rebate)"
        },
        {
          "label": "Chainlink — BTC/USD TWAP 60-second data stream",
          "url": "https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams",
          "note": "Resolution source named in the market rules"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — trading fees",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/trading/fees",
          "note": "Taker formula and category rates; read 2026-09-12"
        },
        {
          "label": "Pine Analytics — Polymarket fee rollout",
          "url": "https://pineanalytics.substack.com/p/polymarket-fee-rollout",
          "note": "Third-party reconstruction of the fee timeline; not a Polymarket announcement"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: 1.6% of Polymarket wallets never sleep",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-wallets-that-never-sleep-trading-cadence",
          "note": "Always-on wallets and their share of trades"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: Polymarket copy trading costs",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-copy-trading-costs-and-tools",
          "note": "Fee arithmetic for followers"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: Is Polymarket legal in the US?",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/is-polymarket-legal-in-the-us-2026",
          "note": "Kalshi's sports share of contracts traded"
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2026-08-21T12:00Z/2026-09-12T18:00Z",
        "population": "251 observed hours",
        "methodology": "Up-or-down trades divided by all trades, pooled by UTC hour of day."
      },
      "id": "when-chart",
      "kind": "published-chart",
      "description": "Vultax counted 15.0 million Polymarket trades over 251 hours: 59.6% were five-minute to daily up-or-down crypto bets averaging $12.82, 379 wallets made most of them, and the taker fee runs near 1.6% of every five-minute trade.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets#when",
      "publishedAt": "2026-09-15",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-09-15",
      "version": "6e0407e4ebc12d56ca50de39db2866193f8d5020a265f6290ce899f7e2316a5d",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Figures describe trades recorded by Vultax's Polymarket flow lane in 251 observed hours and are shares of that record, not of all venue volume. Fees are computed from published rates. Nothing here is a recommendation to trade or financial advice.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets/data.json?dataset=when-chart",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets/data.csv?dataset=when-chart"
      }
    }
  ]
}