Observed Polymarket trades in up-or-down markets: 59.6%

Vultax counted 15.0 million Polymarket trades over 251 hours: 59.6% were up-or-down crypto bets, 379 wallets made most of them, and takers paid about 1.6% of notional on five-minute trades. In 2,497 markets checked against outcomes, Up won 50.2% and favourites won as often as priced.

- Up-or-down trades made by 379 wallets: 58.6%
- Half-way favourites that won: 74.6%
- Taker fee on a five-minute trade: ≈1.6%

Observed 2026-08-21T12:00Z to 2026-09-12T18:00Z, population: 14,973,743 Polymarket trades in 251 observed hours.

Study: https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets
Markdown: https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets.md
Data: https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets/data.json
Share card: https://vultax.com/og/article/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets
Live screen: https://app.vultax.com/analytics/markets

Vultax Research, Polymarket's Up-or-Down Crypto Markets: 60% of Its Trades, Priced About Right, 1.6% Fee, 2026-09-16, https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets