{ "schemaVersion": "vultax-public-research-data-v1", "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-copy-trading-costs-and-tools", "datasets": [ { "title": "The buys with no later buyer, by rank", "columns": [ { "name": "Rank and delay", "unit": null }, { "name": "Leaders", "unit": null }, { "name": "Leader buys", "unit": null }, { "name": "Matched", "unit": null }, { "name": "Unmatched", "unit": null }, { "name": "Unmatched share", "unit": null }, { "name": "Set aside", "unit": null } ], "rows": [ [ "Top 100, 30 seconds", "17", "7,587", "5,608", "1,934", "25.5%", "45" ], [ "Top 100, 2 minutes", "17", "7,587", "5,215", "2,315", "30.5%", "57" ], [ "Top 100, 10 minutes", "17", "7,587", "4,284", "3,217", "42.4%", "86" ], [ "Ranks 101 to 1,000, 30 seconds", "168", "17,897", "14,044", "3,832", "21.4%", "21" ], [ "Ranks 101 to 1,000, 2 minutes", "168", "17,897", "13,064", "4,807", "26.9%", "26" ], [ "Ranks 101 to 1,000, 10 minutes", "168", "17,897", "10,107", "7,692", "43.0%", "98" ] ], "measurementContext": "Event markets. Re-run of 19 October 2026 from Vultax's archived Polymarket trade tape, 15:06 UTC 12 September to 22:55 UTC 13 September 2026, with the rules of the delay table and the cohort refresh accepted at 22:39 UTC on 12 September. Unmatched share is unmatched buys divided by all leader buys. The last column is the buys whose five-minute window ran past the end of the recording; they are neither matched nor unmatched.", "sources": [ { "label": "Polymarket trading fees", "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/trading/fees.md", "note": "Formula, per-category rates, maker exemption; read 2026-09-05" }, { "label": "Polycopy pricing", "url": "https://polycopy.app/pricing", "note": "Free and Premium tiers, 0.5% execution fee, paper-trading bots; read 2026-09-05" }, { "label": "Polycopy copy trading", "url": "https://polycopy.app/copy-trading", "note": "Non-custodial model" }, { "label": "LuckyLobster launch release", "url": "https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/02/23/3242532/0/en/LuckyLobster-Launches-AI-Native-Execution-Layer-for-Autonomous-Trading-on-Polymarket.html", "note": "\"sub-50ms\" copy trade, managed wallets; 23 February 2026" }, { "label": "Alphascope wallet tracker", "url": "https://www.alphascope.app/tools/polymarket-wallet-tracker", "note": "Free lookup and watchlist" }, { "label": "Polymarket data API — trades", "url": "https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades", "note": "Public trade records underlying Vultax's trade record" }, { "label": "Polycopy — State of copy trading (Q1 2026)", "url": "https://polycopy.app/research/state-of-copy-trading-q1-2026", "note": "A copy-trading vendor's own research" }, { "label": "Vultax: Best Polymarket Traders", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-traders-leaderboards", "note": "Month-over-month persistence and concentration of realised gains" }, { "label": "Vultax: 1.6% of Polymarket wallets never sleep", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-wallets-that-never-sleep-trading-cadence", "note": "Who the busiest leaders are" }, { "label": "Vultax: Polymarket's up-or-down crypto markets", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets", "note": "The market class measured separately here" }, { "label": "Gizmodo — Study finds around a quarter of Polymarket trades are fake (Columbia, Nov 2025)", "url": "https://gizmodo.com/study-finds-around-a-quarter-of-polymarket-trades-are-fake-2000683231", "note": "About 25% of Polymarket volume over three years flagged as wash trading by counterparty structure, peaking near 60% in December 2024; roughly one wallet in seven flagged; many flagged wallets made no profit." }, { "label": "CFTC — Enforcement Division issues Prediction Markets Advisory (25 Feb 2026)", "url": "https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9185-26", "note": "Insider trading, fraud and manipulation, wash sales and pre-arranged trading, and disruptive trading named as conduct the Commission polices on any designated contract market; cites a candidate trading his own race and a video editor trading on non-public channel information." }, { "label": "Coinpaprika — Polymarket expands beyond prediction markets with 20x leverage perps (Sep 2026)", "url": "https://coinpaprika.com/news/polymarket-expands-beyond-prediction-markets/", "note": "Perpetual futures launched 3 September 2026 with up to 20x leverage; 67 markets within hours; U.S. traders barred. Kalshi's bitcoin perpetuals went live 3 June 2026." }, { "label": "DefiRate — Prediction markets top $11B in contract volume as sports, combos drive Kalshi growth (week of 24–30 Aug 2026)", "url": "https://defirate.com/news/volume-report-top-11b-contracts-sports-combos/", "note": "Kalshi at about 90% of combined contract volume in late August, driven by sports and multi-leg combos; the share is contract volume, not dollars at risk." }, { "label": "Selected arithmetic checked in Lean 4.35.0", "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/research-proof-library-2026-10-25/articles/polymarket-copy-trading-costs-and-tools.md", "note": "Selected exact-rational calculations and displayed-value consistency checks, checked by Lean 4.35.0, Lean kernel replay and Nanoda. Not a proof of the underlying observations, statistical conclusions, legal claims or production code." }, { "label": "Per-article scope records and Lean package", "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/research-proof-library-2026-10-25/README.md", "note": "Dated per-article scope records, Lean source, frozen permitted public inputs, checker logs and a reproducible ZIP. Covers only the scope stated in each record, not the whole study." } ], "measurement": { "kind": "observed", "temporalCoverage": "2026-09-12T15:06Z/2026-09-13T22:55Z", "population": "25,484 event-market buys by 185 of the top 1,000 cohort wallets, re-run of 19 October 2026", "methodology": "For each leader buy, whether any other wallet bought the same outcome at or after the delay and within five minutes of it. Buys whose window ran past the end of the recording are set aside." }, "id": "unmatched-buys-by-rank-table", "kind": "published-table", "description": "What copying a Polymarket trader costs, measured and worked. Behind buys by the 1,000 most profitable wallets, a follower 30 seconds late paid 1.43¢ a share more in event markets; fees and fill put a copier of a $50 crypto trade down about 6% before the market moves. Four tools compared.", "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-copy-trading-costs-and-tools", "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-copy-trading-costs-and-tools#unmatched-buys-by-rank", "publishedAt": "2026-09-12", "modifiedAt": "2026-10-25", "version": "6e54c610f34015f8735f118a2ae04984fa653f85eb5bed754e5d30fe73dffbe5", "isLive": false, "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Tool facts were read from vendor pages on the stated date and can change. The fee arithmetic is illustrative and uses published rates; actual fills differ. The delay figures describe what the next buyer of the same outcome paid after trades by high-profit wallets over 31.8 hours in September 2026 and are not a forecast of any copier's results. Nothing here is a recommendation to copy any wallet, and nothing here is financial advice.", "downloads": { "json": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-copy-trading-costs-and-tools/data.json?dataset=unmatched-buys-by-rank-table", "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-copy-trading-costs-and-tools/data.csv?dataset=unmatched-buys-by-rank-table" } } ] }