{
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  "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-deadline-markets-accuracy",
  "datasets": [
    {
      "title": "Price against outcome, 30 days before the deadline",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Price 30 days out",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Markets",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Events",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Came true",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "95% interval (by event)",
          "unit": null
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "<5¢",
          "369",
          "332",
          "0.3%",
          "0.0–0.8%"
        ],
        [
          "5–15¢",
          "190",
          "171",
          "13.7%",
          "8.7–19.1%"
        ],
        [
          "15–35¢",
          "171",
          "151",
          "21.6%",
          "15.3–28.6%"
        ],
        [
          "35–65¢",
          "124",
          "107",
          "42.7%",
          "34.1–51.8%"
        ],
        [
          ">65¢",
          "84",
          "72",
          "64.3%",
          "53.7–75.0%"
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Intervals resample whole events (2,000 draws), so rungs of one ladder move together.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Boka Qin and Rui Yang — Polymarket-v1 Database (TimeSeventeen)",
          "url": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/TimeSeventeen/Polymarket-v1",
          "note": "Settled-market fills and aligned market metadata, 1 January 2025 to 28 April 2026, published under CC BY 4.0. Vultax built the hourly price panel and the statistics."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket Gamma API — markets and events",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "Event membership (for clustering), settled prices and the end-2026 snapshot."
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": null,
        "temporalCoverage": null,
        "population": null,
        "methodology": null
      },
      "id": "by-price-table",
      "kind": "published-table",
      "description": "Every settled Polymarket market worded 'by' or 'before' a date, January 2025 to April 2026, scored against its price 90, 30 and 7 days before the deadline and clustered by event. Markets above 65¢ a month out came true 64.3% of the time; a week out, 90.5%.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-deadline-markets-accuracy",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-deadline-markets-accuracy#by-price",
      "publishedAt": "2026-10-05",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-10-05",
      "version": "a0a96503df9db876d74ff2b2041b5c9b85c681fdf287dbfd8ee19f8d7f4eb5bb",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Figures describe Polymarket markets that settled between 1 January 2025 and 28 April 2026; a market price is a traded probability, not a forecast by Vultax, and nothing here is advice to trade.",
      "downloads": {
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        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-deadline-markets-accuracy/data.csv?dataset=by-price-table"
      }
    },
    {
      "title": "Average price and share that came true, by price 30 days before the deadline",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Category",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Average price 30 days out",
          "unit": "%"
        },
        {
          "name": "Share that came true",
          "unit": "%"
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
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          0.3
        ],
        [
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        ],
        [
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          24,
          21.6
        ],
        [
          "35–65¢",
          48.4,
          42.7
        ],
        [
          ">65¢",
          83.7,
          64.3
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Polymarket deadline markets with $50,000+ volume, settled January 2025 to April 2026. Percent.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Boka Qin and Rui Yang — Polymarket-v1 Database (TimeSeventeen)",
          "url": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/TimeSeventeen/Polymarket-v1",
          "note": "Settled-market fills and aligned market metadata, 1 January 2025 to 28 April 2026, published under CC BY 4.0. Vultax built the hourly price panel and the statistics."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket Gamma API — markets and events",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "Event membership (for clustering), settled prices and the end-2026 snapshot."
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2025-01-01/2026-04-28",
        "population": "938 deadline-worded markets with a trade within 48 hours of T−30 days",
        "methodology": "Price is the last hourly price nearest 30 days before the scheduled end; outcome is the settled result."
      },
      "id": "by-price-chart",
      "kind": "published-chart",
      "description": "Every settled Polymarket market worded 'by' or 'before' a date, January 2025 to April 2026, scored against its price 90, 30 and 7 days before the deadline and clustered by event. Markets above 65¢ a month out came true 64.3% of the time; a week out, 90.5%.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-deadline-markets-accuracy",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-deadline-markets-accuracy#by-price",
      "publishedAt": "2026-10-05",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-10-05",
      "version": "b461efef0b61a14c1462b27fa6175befb4e8daa99e137f669e0a1d88913e6797",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Figures describe Polymarket markets that settled between 1 January 2025 and 28 April 2026; a market price is a traded probability, not a forecast by Vultax, and nothing here is advice to trade.",
      "downloads": {
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        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-deadline-markets-accuracy/data.csv?dataset=by-price-chart"
      }
    },
    {
      "title": "Ninety, thirty and seven days out",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Days out",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Above 65¢",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "95% interval",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "All: price",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "All: came true",
          "unit": null
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "90 days",
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          "63.2–86.4%",
          "23.5¢",
          "21.2%"
        ],
        [
          "30 days",
          "84 (72 events)",
          "53.7–75.0%",
          "20.9¢",
          "18.2%"
        ],
        [
          "7 days",
          "74 (70 events)",
          "83.3–97.1%",
          "12.9¢",
          "13.6%"
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Days are counted back from each market's scheduled end. Above 65¢: markets (events) priced above 65¢ at that point, with the event-clustered interval for the share that came true. All: every market still open.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Boka Qin and Rui Yang — Polymarket-v1 Database (TimeSeventeen)",
          "url": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/TimeSeventeen/Polymarket-v1",
          "note": "Settled-market fills and aligned market metadata, 1 January 2025 to 28 April 2026, published under CC BY 4.0. Vultax built the hourly price panel and the statistics."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket Gamma API — markets and events",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "Event membership (for clustering), settled prices and the end-2026 snapshot."
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": null,
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        "population": null,
        "methodology": null
      },
      "id": "by-horizon-table",
      "kind": "published-table",
      "description": "Every settled Polymarket market worded 'by' or 'before' a date, January 2025 to April 2026, scored against its price 90, 30 and 7 days before the deadline and clustered by event. Markets above 65¢ a month out came true 64.3% of the time; a week out, 90.5%.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-deadline-markets-accuracy",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-deadline-markets-accuracy#by-horizon",
      "publishedAt": "2026-10-05",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-10-05",
      "version": "061cdb892d5ca5a0155379f82927d29f15d429fa5b6ba778674460b7d075b476",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Figures describe Polymarket markets that settled between 1 January 2025 and 28 April 2026; a market price is a traded probability, not a forecast by Vultax, and nothing here is advice to trade.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-deadline-markets-accuracy/data.json?dataset=by-horizon-table",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-deadline-markets-accuracy/data.csv?dataset=by-horizon-table"
      }
    },
    {
      "title": "Markets above 65¢: average price and share that came true, by days to the deadline",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Category",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Average price",
          "unit": "%"
        },
        {
          "name": "Share that came true",
          "unit": "%"
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "90 days out",
          84.4,
          75.4
        ],
        [
          "30 days out",
          83.7,
          64.3
        ],
        [
          "7 days out",
          84.9,
          90.5
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Polymarket deadline markets with $50,000+ volume, settled January 2025 to April 2026. Percent.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Boka Qin and Rui Yang — Polymarket-v1 Database (TimeSeventeen)",
          "url": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/TimeSeventeen/Polymarket-v1",
          "note": "Settled-market fills and aligned market metadata, 1 January 2025 to 28 April 2026, published under CC BY 4.0. Vultax built the hourly price panel and the statistics."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket Gamma API — markets and events",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "Event membership (for clustering), settled prices and the end-2026 snapshot."
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2025-01-01/2026-04-28",
        "population": "Deadline-worded markets priced above 65¢ at each horizon: 57 at 90 days out, 84 at 30 days out, 74 at 7 days out",
        "methodology": "Price is the last hourly price nearest 90, 30 or 7 days before the scheduled end; outcome is the settled result."
      },
      "id": "by-horizon-chart",
      "kind": "published-chart",
      "description": "Every settled Polymarket market worded 'by' or 'before' a date, January 2025 to April 2026, scored against its price 90, 30 and 7 days before the deadline and clustered by event. Markets above 65¢ a month out came true 64.3% of the time; a week out, 90.5%.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-deadline-markets-accuracy",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-deadline-markets-accuracy#by-horizon",
      "publishedAt": "2026-10-05",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-10-05",
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      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Figures describe Polymarket markets that settled between 1 January 2025 and 28 April 2026; a market price is a traded probability, not a forecast by Vultax, and nothing here is advice to trade.",
      "downloads": {
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        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-deadline-markets-accuracy/data.csv?dataset=by-horizon-chart"
      }
    },
    {
      "title": "The end-2025 settle, scored from 1 October 2025",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Price on 1 Oct 2025",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Markets",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Average price",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Came true",
          "unit": null
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
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          "105",
          "2.8¢",
          "0.0%"
        ],
        [
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          "142",
          "8.2¢",
          "4.2%"
        ],
        [
          "15–35¢",
          "62",
          "22.8¢",
          "22.6%"
        ],
        [
          "35–65¢",
          "32",
          "47.9¢",
          "31.2%"
        ],
        [
          ">65¢",
          "31",
          "85.1¢",
          "74.2%"
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": null,
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Boka Qin and Rui Yang — Polymarket-v1 Database (TimeSeventeen)",
          "url": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/TimeSeventeen/Polymarket-v1",
          "note": "Settled-market fills and aligned market metadata, 1 January 2025 to 28 April 2026, published under CC BY 4.0. Vultax built the hourly price panel and the statistics."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket Gamma API — markets and events",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "Event membership (for clustering), settled prices and the end-2026 snapshot."
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": null,
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      },
      "id": "year-end-2025-table",
      "kind": "published-table",
      "description": "Every settled Polymarket market worded 'by' or 'before' a date, January 2025 to April 2026, scored against its price 90, 30 and 7 days before the deadline and clustered by event. Markets above 65¢ a month out came true 64.3% of the time; a week out, 90.5%.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-deadline-markets-accuracy",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-deadline-markets-accuracy#year-end-2025",
      "publishedAt": "2026-10-05",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-10-05",
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      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Figures describe Polymarket markets that settled between 1 January 2025 and 28 April 2026; a market price is a traded probability, not a forecast by Vultax, and nothing here is advice to trade.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-deadline-markets-accuracy/data.json?dataset=year-end-2025-table",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-deadline-markets-accuracy/data.csv?dataset=year-end-2025-table"
      }
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  ]
}