{
  "schemaVersion": "vultax-public-research-data-v1",
  "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-deadline-markets-accuracy",
  "datasets": [
    {
      "title": "Price against outcome, 30 days before the deadline",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Price 30 days out",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Markets",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Events",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Came true",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "95% interval (by event)",
          "unit": null
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "<5¢",
          "369",
          "332",
          "0.3%",
          "0.0–0.8%"
        ],
        [
          "5–15¢",
          "190",
          "171",
          "13.7%",
          "8.7–19.1%"
        ],
        [
          "15–35¢",
          "171",
          "151",
          "21.6%",
          "15.3–28.6%"
        ],
        [
          "35–65¢",
          "124",
          "107",
          "42.7%",
          "34.1–51.8%"
        ],
        [
          ">65¢",
          "84",
          "72",
          "64.3%",
          "53.7–75.0%"
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Intervals resample whole events (2,000 draws), so rungs of one ladder move together.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Boka Qin and Rui Yang — Polymarket-v1 Database (TimeSeventeen)",
          "url": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/TimeSeventeen/Polymarket-v1",
          "note": "Settled-market fills and aligned market metadata, 1 January 2025 to 28 April 2026, published under CC BY 4.0. Vultax built the hourly price panel and the statistics."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket Gamma API — markets and events",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "Event membership (for clustering), settled prices and the end-2026 snapshot."
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": null,
        "temporalCoverage": null,
        "population": null,
        "methodology": null
      },
      "id": "by-price-table",
      "kind": "published-table",
      "description": "Every settled Polymarket market worded 'by' or 'before' a date, January 2025 to April 2026, scored against its price 90, 30 and 7 days before the deadline and clustered by event. Markets above 65¢ a month out came true 64.3% of the time; a week out, 90.5%.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-deadline-markets-accuracy",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-deadline-markets-accuracy#by-price",
      "publishedAt": "2026-10-05",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-10-05",
      "version": "a0a96503df9db876d74ff2b2041b5c9b85c681fdf287dbfd8ee19f8d7f4eb5bb",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Figures describe Polymarket markets that settled between 1 January 2025 and 28 April 2026; a market price is a traded probability, not a forecast by Vultax, and nothing here is advice to trade.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-deadline-markets-accuracy/data.json?dataset=by-price-table",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-deadline-markets-accuracy/data.csv?dataset=by-price-table"
      }
    }
  ]
}