Deadline markets above 65¢ a month out that came true: 64.3%

Every settled Polymarket market worded 'by' or 'before' a date, January 2025 to April 2026, scored against its price 90, 30 and 7 days before the deadline and clustered by event. Markets above 65¢ a month out came true 64.3% of the time; a week out, 90.5%.

- The same price band a week before the deadline: 90.5%
- Long shots at 5–15¢ a month out that came true: 13.7%
- End-2025 markets open on 1 October 2025 that resolved Yes: 53 of 372

Observed 2025-01-01 to 2026-04-28, population: 938 deadline-worded markets with a trade within 48 hours of T−30 days.

Study: https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-deadline-markets-accuracy
Markdown: https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-deadline-markets-accuracy.md
Data: https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-deadline-markets-accuracy/data.json
Share card: https://vultax.com/og/article/research/polymarket-deadline-markets-accuracy
Live screen: https://app.vultax.com/predictions/topic/nato-russia

Vultax Research, Polymarket 'By Date' Favourites at 84¢ a Month Out Came True 64% of the Time, 2026-10-05, https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-deadline-markets-accuracy