{
  "schemaVersion": "vultax-public-research-data-v1",
  "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-excess-wins-domain-concentration",
  "datasets": [
    {
      "title": "Initial-direction wins, counted once per company reporting cycle",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Category",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Price-implied expected wins",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Observed wins",
          "unit": null
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "KPMG clients (37 cycles)",
          23.331,
          32
        ],
        [
          "Other known auditors (55 cycles)",
          30.704,
          28
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Thirteen published addresses; historical fills, January 2025 to April 2026. Each bar counts wins, not profit.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Boka Qin and Rui Yang. TimeSeventeen/Polymarket-v1 dataset and data definitions (CC BY 4.0)",
          "url": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/TimeSeventeen/Polymarket-v1",
          "note": null
        },
        {
          "label": "PCAOB. AuditorSearch and Form AP: public annual-auditor records",
          "url": "https://pcaobus.org/resources/auditorsearch",
          "note": null
        },
        {
          "label": "EventWaves. KPMG-Audited Companies are Trading Strangely on Polymarket. Source of the initial nine and supplementary four published addresses",
          "url": "https://eventwaves.substack.com/p/kpmg-audited-companies-are-trading",
          "note": null
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket. Gamma API documentation: event metadata",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/api-reference/events/list-events",
          "note": null
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax Research. Earlier long-shot and tight-screen study. Read with the correction in this note",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate",
          "note": null
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2025-01-01/2026-04-28",
        "population": "13 previously published addresses; 92 pooled company reporting cycles",
        "methodology": "One earliest initial direction per company reporting cycle. Expected wins are the sum of entry prices."
      },
      "id": "earnings-comparison-chart",
      "kind": "published-chart",
      "description": "The same published accounts beat entry-price expectations on one auditor’s clients, with no excess elsewhere. A broader wallet screen raises a different question.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-excess-wins-domain-concentration",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-excess-wins-domain-concentration#earnings-comparison",
      "publishedAt": "2026-10-08",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-10-08",
      "version": "c2f3d6d3ae273e0f4f6cd5bb9fde5b36f50b5487bcdb50e4fd17130df5f7ea27",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. These retrospective comparisons do not establish insider trading, common ownership, wrongdoing by an audit firm or a reliable way to identify informed traders in advance. The paper describes saved research outputs, selection effects and model limitations. Analysis: Vultax Research.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-excess-wins-domain-concentration/data.json?dataset=earnings-comparison-chart",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-excess-wins-domain-concentration/data.csv?dataset=earnings-comparison-chart"
      }
    }
  ]
}