{
  "schemaVersion": "vultax-public-research-data-v1",
  "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-florida-midterm-odds-2026",
  "datasets": [
    {
      "title": "The House: the favourites held",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Race",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Favourite on the eve",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Party",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Eve price",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Status at 16:19 UTC, 4 November",
          "unit": null
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "House, 21st district",
          "Brian Mast",
          "Republican",
          "89.5%",
          "Won, paid"
        ],
        [
          "House, 11th district",
          "Joe Strada",
          "Republican",
          "88.0%",
          "Won, paid"
        ],
        [
          "House, 12th district",
          "Gus Bilirakis",
          "Republican",
          "87.5%",
          "Won, paid"
        ],
        [
          "Senate",
          "Ashley Moody",
          "Republican",
          "87.5%",
          "Won, paid"
        ],
        [
          "House, 26th district",
          "Mario Díaz-Balart",
          "Republican",
          "86.5%",
          "Counting: Mario Díaz-Balart leads"
        ],
        [
          "House, 4th district",
          "Aaron Bean",
          "Republican",
          "82.0%",
          "Won, paid"
        ],
        [
          "House, 25th district",
          "Jared Moskowitz",
          "Democrat",
          "81.5%",
          "Won, paid"
        ],
        [
          "House, 14th district",
          "Kathy Castor",
          "Democrat",
          "77.5%",
          "Won, paid"
        ],
        [
          "House, 22nd district",
          "Pia Dandiya",
          "Democrat",
          "75.5%",
          "Won, paid"
        ],
        [
          "House, 16th district",
          "Sydney Gruters",
          "Republican",
          "73.5%",
          "Won, paid"
        ],
        [
          "Governor",
          "Byron Donalds",
          "Republican",
          "65.5%",
          "Won, paid"
        ],
        [
          "House, 13th district",
          "Anna Paulina Luna",
          "Republican",
          "64.5%",
          "Counting: Anna Paulina Luna leads"
        ],
        [
          "House, 7th district",
          "Ryan Elijah",
          "Republican",
          "64.0%",
          "Counting: Ryan Elijah leads"
        ],
        [
          "House, 9th district",
          "Dan Green",
          "Republican",
          "63.5%",
          "Counting: Darren Soto leads"
        ],
        [
          "House, 27th district",
          "María Elvira Salazar",
          "Republican",
          "58.5%",
          "Counting: María Elvira Salazar leads"
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Every Florida race where the favourite was priced under 90 cents at 23:59 UTC on 2 November 2026. \"Paid\" means Polymarket has paid the market out; \"counting\" means it has not.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Polymarket: Florida Governor Election Winner",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/florida-governor-winner-2026",
          "note": "Eve-of-vote price 23:59 UTC 2 November 2026; paid."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket: Florida Governor Election Margin of Victory",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/florida-governor-margin-of-victory-2026",
          "note": "Bracket prices at 23:59 UTC 2 November 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket: Florida Senate Election Winner",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/florida-senate-election-winner",
          "note": "Eve-of-vote price; paid."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket: Florida Senate Election Margin of Victory",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/florida-senate-margin-of-victory-2026",
          "note": null
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket: Florida Senate Election, Miami-Dade County Winner",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/florida-senate-election-miami-dade-county-winner",
          "note": "A week before and on the eve of the vote."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket: How many House seats will the Democrats win in Florida?",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-house-seats-will-the-democrats-win-in-florida",
          "note": null
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket: Florida Attorney General Election Winner",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/florida-attorney-general-election-winner-2026",
          "note": "Paid."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket: FL-09 House Election Winner",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/fl-09-house-election-winner",
          "note": "Not paid at 16:19 UTC 4 November."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket: FL-27 House Election Winner",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/fl-27-house-election-winner",
          "note": "Not paid at 16:19 UTC 4 November."
        },
        {
          "label": "NBC News: Florida governor results",
          "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-elections/florida-governor-results",
          "note": "Unofficial count, read 4 November 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "NBC News: Florida Senate results",
          "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-special-elections/florida-senate-results",
          "note": "Unofficial count, read 4 November 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "Miami-Dade County Elections: unofficial results",
          "url": "https://enr.electionsfl.org/DAD/4087/Summary/",
          "note": "Senate count by county, and the 27th district."
        },
        {
          "label": "WLRN: the 27th district recount",
          "url": "https://www.wlrn.org/government-politics/2026-11-03/salazar-rodriguez-27th-recount",
          "note": null
        },
        {
          "label": "Central Florida Public Media: the 9th district count",
          "url": "https://www.cfpublic.org/politics/2026-11-04/soto-green-undecided-midterms",
          "note": null
        },
        {
          "label": "Miami Herald precinct analysis (syndicated)",
          "url": "https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/miami-dade-hispanics-opt-donalds-003217782.html",
          "note": null
        },
        {
          "label": "Florida Statutes, section 102.141",
          "url": "https://www.leg.state.fl.us/statutes/index.cfm?App_mode=Display_Statute&URL=0100-0199/0102/Sections/0102.141.html",
          "note": "The half-point machine recount rule."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket API documentation",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "Order books and midpoints."
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2026-11-02/2026-11-04",
        "population": "Polymarket's Florida race-winner markets",
        "methodology": "Order-book midpoint, hourly recording; status from Polymarket's resolution"
      },
      "id": "house-table",
      "kind": "published-table",
      "description": "Every close Florida race Polymarket has paid went to its favourite, 10 of 10, where the prices implied about 8.1. Byron Donalds was 65.5% and Ashley Moody 87.5%, and both won inside the margin the market made likeliest.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-florida-midterm-odds-2026",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-florida-midterm-odds-2026#house",
      "publishedAt": "2026-11-04",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-11-04",
      "version": "03540ff334a3382129404eefa2741b54cfa5d691e429599df6a069e84d471490",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. A reading of public market prices at the stated times, not a forecast by Vultax and not advice to trade.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-florida-midterm-odds-2026/data.json?dataset=house-table",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-florida-midterm-odds-2026/data.csv?dataset=house-table"
      }
    }
  ]
}