Close Florida races paid to the favourite: 10 of 10

Every close Florida race Polymarket has paid went to its favourite, 10 of 10, where the prices implied about 8.1. Byron Donalds was 65.5% and Ashley Moody 87.5%, and both won inside the margin the market made likeliest. At their prices on the eve of the vote, about 8.1 of them should have won.

- Byron Donalds, governor, eve of the vote: 65.5%
- Angie Nixon to carry Miami-Dade, eve of the vote: 58.0%
- Traded on the governor's race on election night: $4.9M

Observed 2026-11-02T23:59:00Z, population: Polymarket's Florida governor margin-of-victory market.

Study: https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-florida-midterm-odds-2026
Markdown: https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-florida-midterm-odds-2026.md
Data: https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-florida-midterm-odds-2026/data.json
Share card: https://vultax.com/og/article/research/polymarket-florida-midterm-odds-2026
Live screen: https://app.vultax.com/predictions/topic/midterms-2026

Holguín, Julian, Florida Midterm Odds 2026: Every Paid Close Race Went to the Favourite, 2026-11-04, https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-florida-midterm-odds-2026