{
  "schemaVersion": "vultax-public-research-data-v1",
  "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate",
  "datasets": [
    {
      "title": "What the bet type returns platform-wide",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Screen",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Positions",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Wallets",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Won",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Average price paid",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Staked",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Gross return",
          "unit": null
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "$2,500 or more inside one hour, at 35¢ or less",
          "113,863",
          "17,858",
          "24.37%",
          "23.01¢",
          "$1.24bn",
          "−3.67%"
        ],
        [
          "Any position at 35¢ or less, no size gate",
          "62,148,514",
          "1,883,778",
          "15.32%",
          "14.53¢",
          "$3.33bn",
          "−5.35%"
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Polymarket settled markets, 1 January 2025 to 28 April 2026. A position is one wallet on one side of one market. Returns are stake-weighted and gross of fees.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Anti-Corruption Data Collective — Classifying Insider Trading Risk: Analyzing the Longshot Betting Ecosystem on Polymarket",
          "url": "https://acdatacollective.org/work/classifying-insider-trading-risk-analyzing-the-longshot-betting-ecosystem-on-polymarket/",
          "note": "August 2026. Defines a long-shot bet as \"more than $2500 wagered at 35 cents or less\" and the wallet profile as betting in a small number of markets and on very few topics with a success rate above 75%. Settled markets through 5 May 2026; 12,355 long-shot wallets classified, 556 of them matching the profile."
        },
        {
          "label": "Reuters — More than 150 Polymarket wallets may have traded on military secrets, research finds",
          "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/more-than-150-polymarket-wallets-may-have-traded-military-secrets-research-finds-2026-08-20/",
          "note": "20 August 2026. First report of the study; renders the threshold as at least $2,500 placed cumulatively in an hour or less at odds of 35% or lower. 152 wallets concentrated on military and defence markets, about $8 million won at an average 97.2% win rate against roughly 52% for long-shot bets in those markets generally."
        },
        {
          "label": "CNN — Polymarket referred dozens of possible military insider trading cases to DOJ, source says",
          "url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/21/politics/polymarket-doj-military-prediction-market",
          "note": "21 August 2026. A senior Polymarket official said the referrals predated the report and that internal surveillance monitors around 150 further signals and trading patterns. Polymarket has not been accused of wrongdoing; the Department of Justice did not comment."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Market Integrity Policy",
          "url": "https://integrity.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "The venue's own policy: trading on stolen or confidential information and trading by anyone positioned to influence an outcome are prohibited; real-time surveillance and referral to law enforcement are described."
        },
        {
          "label": "Bloomberg Businessweek — Polymarket and Kalshi Grapple With a New Era of Insider Traders",
          "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-polymarket-traders-who-knew-the-future/",
          "note": "20 July 2026. About 34,000 Polymarket transactions flagged by Polysights between August 2025 and June 2026; 57% of flagged wallets created less than 24 hours before their flagged trades; 38 connected wallets across 90 Iran and Venezuela markets won 98% of them for about $1.6 million. A flag is not presented as proof of wrongdoing."
        },
        {
          "label": "The Wall Street Journal — Cluster of Polymarket Accounts Won Big on Companies Audited by KPMG",
          "url": "https://www.wsj.com/business/c-suite/cluster-of-polymarket-accounts-won-big-on-companies-audited-by-kpmg-b4d322f7",
          "note": "11 September 2026. Bubblemaps clustering linked 19 accounts that went 41 for 42 on earnings bets across roughly 18 KPMG audit clients from November 2025, for about $22,000. KPMG cited zero tolerance for misuse of non-public client information; Bubblemaps said clustering alone does not prove insider trading."
        },
        {
          "label": "Mitts and Ofir — From Iran to Taylor Swift: Informed Trading in Prediction Markets",
          "url": "https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6426778",
          "note": "SSRN working paper, March 2026. Every Polymarket contract from February 2024 to February 2026 scored on bet size, profitability, pre-event timing and directional concentration: 210,718 suspicious wallet-market pairs, a 69.9% win rate more than 60 standard deviations above a permutation null, about $143 million of anomalous profit."
        },
        {
          "label": "Nechepurenko — Per-Market Information Leakage and Order-Flow Skill",
          "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.02287",
          "note": "May 2026. Sets out the limitation of an outcome-conditioned score: profitability is only known at resolution, so the screen gives no real-time signal and does not separate skill from luck on its own."
        },
        {
          "label": "CFTC — Enforcement Division issues Prediction Markets Advisory",
          "url": "https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9185-26",
          "note": "25 February 2026. Names insider trading, fraud and manipulation, wash sales and pre-arranged trading as conduct the Commission polices on any designated contract market."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket trading fees",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/trading/fees",
          "note": "\"Makers are never charged fees. Only takers pay fees.\" The basis for charging the tape's fee field entirely to the taker in the net-of-fee figures."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket Data API — wallet activity",
          "url": "https://data-api.polymarket.com/activity",
          "note": "Used to calibrate the first-seen dates: a stratified sample of 500 wallets was checked against the earliest activity record the venue holds, and 500 of 500 resolved."
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: Polymarket prices tested against 6,776 resolved markets",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-market-fair-value-calibration",
          "note": "The favourite-longshot effect measured from the price side rather than the wallet side"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: 1.6% of Polymarket wallets never sleep",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-wallets-that-never-sleep-trading-cadence",
          "note": "The wallet population these flagged wallets sit inside, measured by cadence"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: where Polymarket profits go",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-traders-leaderboards",
          "note": "Realised profit and loss per wallet, and how little of it persists"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax methodology",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/methodology",
          "note": "How Vultax measures, and what it does not claim"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket activity API documentation",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/api-reference/core/get-user-activity",
          "note": "Oldest public trade per wallet; read 19 September 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax wallet-age check, 500 wallets",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/polymarket-wallet-first-seen-history-audit/wallet-age-audit.csv",
          "note": "First recorded fill against oldest public trade; addresses replaced by sample numbers."
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2025-01-01/2026-04-28",
        "population": "714,691,643 fills across 662,215 settled Polymarket markets",
        "methodology": "The size-gated row applies the $2,500-in-one-hour rule; the reference row keeps only the 35-cent price condition, with no size or speed gate."
      },
      "id": "base-rate-table",
      "kind": "published-table",
      "description": "The screen used to flag insider wallets on Polymarket — $2,500 or more inside an hour on an outcome at 35 cents or less — run across every settled Polymarket market from January 2025 to April 2026: 113,863 bets by 17,858 wallets, $1.24bn staked, 24.4% won, a return of −3.67%.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate#base-rate",
      "publishedAt": "2026-09-21",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-09-21",
      "version": "e379cbada218da7d51d7d39965318b096bcdc7619349245b5063801426cc5129",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Figures describe Polymarket fills between 1 January 2025 and 28 April 2026 in markets that had settled by the end of that window. A screen is a filter on public trading records, not a finding about any person, and no wallet it selects is accused of anything here. Not a recommendation to trade, and not financial advice.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate/data.json?dataset=base-rate-table",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate/data.csv?dataset=base-rate-table"
      }
    },
    {
      "title": "Where the long shots paid, and where they did not",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Category",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Bets",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Wallets",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Won",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Average price paid",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Staked",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Gross return",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "After fees",
          "unit": null
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "All flagged bets",
          "113,863",
          "17,858",
          "24.37%",
          "23.01¢",
          "$1.24bn",
          "−3.67%",
          "−4.33%"
        ],
        [
          "Sports",
          "70,290",
          "7,081",
          "25.54%",
          "24.48¢",
          "$764.0M",
          "−1.77%",
          "−2.70%"
        ],
        [
          "Politics",
          "11,049",
          "5,111",
          "23.61%",
          "19.66¢",
          "$140.9M",
          "+16.87%",
          "+16.87%"
        ],
        [
          "Crypto",
          "10,413",
          "2,734",
          "23.85%",
          "21.72¢",
          "$92.4M",
          "−1.06%",
          "−1.44%"
        ],
        [
          "Price Action",
          "4,047",
          "679",
          "22.93%",
          "21.69¢",
          "$18.5M",
          "−1.38%",
          "−3.71%"
        ],
        [
          "Other",
          "2,403",
          "1,262",
          "23.55%",
          "21.90¢",
          "$24.9M",
          "+4.74%",
          "+4.46%"
        ],
        [
          "Finance",
          "1,314",
          "908",
          "15.68%",
          "21.89¢",
          "$17.8M",
          "−57.21%",
          "−57.80%"
        ],
        [
          "Culture",
          "1,241",
          "860",
          "21.19%",
          "17.62¢",
          "$13.3M",
          "−14.49%",
          "−14.53%"
        ],
        [
          "Global Elections",
          "1,006",
          "773",
          "5.67%",
          "17.66¢",
          "$19.8M",
          "−86.94%",
          "−86.94%"
        ],
        [
          "Bitcoin",
          "832",
          "202",
          "25.12%",
          "23.76¢",
          "$6.3M",
          "−6.17%",
          "−6.25%"
        ],
        [
          "Sci-Tech",
          "714",
          "535",
          "19.05%",
          "21.76¢",
          "$6.8M",
          "−26.29%",
          "−26.30%"
        ],
        [
          "World",
          "713",
          "513",
          "46.28%",
          "22.97¢",
          "$10.9M",
          "+105.67%",
          "+105.67%"
        ],
        [
          "Soccer",
          "662",
          "376",
          "25.68%",
          "22.54¢",
          "$7.5M",
          "+22.08%",
          "+22.06%"
        ],
        [
          "Games",
          "631",
          "252",
          "26.47%",
          "25.53¢",
          "$6.2M",
          "+10.19%",
          "+9.05%"
        ],
        [
          "Romania",
          "626",
          "405",
          "43.61%",
          "25.12¢",
          "$7.9M",
          "+69.39%",
          "+69.39%"
        ],
        [
          "Fed Rates",
          "604",
          "429",
          "2.15%",
          "12.07¢",
          "$10.8M",
          "−96.44%",
          "−96.44%"
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Every Polymarket category with at least 600 qualifying bets, 1 January 2025 to 28 April 2026, ordered by bets. Each bet carries exactly one category, so the rows do not nest. Returns are stake-weighted.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Anti-Corruption Data Collective — Classifying Insider Trading Risk: Analyzing the Longshot Betting Ecosystem on Polymarket",
          "url": "https://acdatacollective.org/work/classifying-insider-trading-risk-analyzing-the-longshot-betting-ecosystem-on-polymarket/",
          "note": "August 2026. Defines a long-shot bet as \"more than $2500 wagered at 35 cents or less\" and the wallet profile as betting in a small number of markets and on very few topics with a success rate above 75%. Settled markets through 5 May 2026; 12,355 long-shot wallets classified, 556 of them matching the profile."
        },
        {
          "label": "Reuters — More than 150 Polymarket wallets may have traded on military secrets, research finds",
          "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/more-than-150-polymarket-wallets-may-have-traded-military-secrets-research-finds-2026-08-20/",
          "note": "20 August 2026. First report of the study; renders the threshold as at least $2,500 placed cumulatively in an hour or less at odds of 35% or lower. 152 wallets concentrated on military and defence markets, about $8 million won at an average 97.2% win rate against roughly 52% for long-shot bets in those markets generally."
        },
        {
          "label": "CNN — Polymarket referred dozens of possible military insider trading cases to DOJ, source says",
          "url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/21/politics/polymarket-doj-military-prediction-market",
          "note": "21 August 2026. A senior Polymarket official said the referrals predated the report and that internal surveillance monitors around 150 further signals and trading patterns. Polymarket has not been accused of wrongdoing; the Department of Justice did not comment."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Market Integrity Policy",
          "url": "https://integrity.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "The venue's own policy: trading on stolen or confidential information and trading by anyone positioned to influence an outcome are prohibited; real-time surveillance and referral to law enforcement are described."
        },
        {
          "label": "Bloomberg Businessweek — Polymarket and Kalshi Grapple With a New Era of Insider Traders",
          "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-polymarket-traders-who-knew-the-future/",
          "note": "20 July 2026. About 34,000 Polymarket transactions flagged by Polysights between August 2025 and June 2026; 57% of flagged wallets created less than 24 hours before their flagged trades; 38 connected wallets across 90 Iran and Venezuela markets won 98% of them for about $1.6 million. A flag is not presented as proof of wrongdoing."
        },
        {
          "label": "The Wall Street Journal — Cluster of Polymarket Accounts Won Big on Companies Audited by KPMG",
          "url": "https://www.wsj.com/business/c-suite/cluster-of-polymarket-accounts-won-big-on-companies-audited-by-kpmg-b4d322f7",
          "note": "11 September 2026. Bubblemaps clustering linked 19 accounts that went 41 for 42 on earnings bets across roughly 18 KPMG audit clients from November 2025, for about $22,000. KPMG cited zero tolerance for misuse of non-public client information; Bubblemaps said clustering alone does not prove insider trading."
        },
        {
          "label": "Mitts and Ofir — From Iran to Taylor Swift: Informed Trading in Prediction Markets",
          "url": "https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6426778",
          "note": "SSRN working paper, March 2026. Every Polymarket contract from February 2024 to February 2026 scored on bet size, profitability, pre-event timing and directional concentration: 210,718 suspicious wallet-market pairs, a 69.9% win rate more than 60 standard deviations above a permutation null, about $143 million of anomalous profit."
        },
        {
          "label": "Nechepurenko — Per-Market Information Leakage and Order-Flow Skill",
          "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.02287",
          "note": "May 2026. Sets out the limitation of an outcome-conditioned score: profitability is only known at resolution, so the screen gives no real-time signal and does not separate skill from luck on its own."
        },
        {
          "label": "CFTC — Enforcement Division issues Prediction Markets Advisory",
          "url": "https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9185-26",
          "note": "25 February 2026. Names insider trading, fraud and manipulation, wash sales and pre-arranged trading as conduct the Commission polices on any designated contract market."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket trading fees",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/trading/fees",
          "note": "\"Makers are never charged fees. Only takers pay fees.\" The basis for charging the tape's fee field entirely to the taker in the net-of-fee figures."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket Data API — wallet activity",
          "url": "https://data-api.polymarket.com/activity",
          "note": "Used to calibrate the first-seen dates: a stratified sample of 500 wallets was checked against the earliest activity record the venue holds, and 500 of 500 resolved."
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: Polymarket prices tested against 6,776 resolved markets",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-market-fair-value-calibration",
          "note": "The favourite-longshot effect measured from the price side rather than the wallet side"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: 1.6% of Polymarket wallets never sleep",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-wallets-that-never-sleep-trading-cadence",
          "note": "The wallet population these flagged wallets sit inside, measured by cadence"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: where Polymarket profits go",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-traders-leaderboards",
          "note": "Realised profit and loss per wallet, and how little of it persists"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax methodology",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/methodology",
          "note": "How Vultax measures, and what it does not claim"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket activity API documentation",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/api-reference/core/get-user-activity",
          "note": "Oldest public trade per wallet; read 19 September 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax wallet-age check, 500 wallets",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/polymarket-wallet-first-seen-history-audit/wallet-age-audit.csv",
          "note": "First recorded fill against oldest public trade; addresses replaced by sample numbers."
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2025-01-01/2026-04-28",
        "population": "Polymarket categories with at least 600 qualifying bets, one category per bet",
        "methodology": "One bet is one wallet-market-side episode whose rolling one-hour stake reached $2,500 over fills where the side held was priced at 35 cents or less. Stake is shares times entry price; gross profit is winning shares minus stake."
      },
      "id": "by-category-table",
      "kind": "published-table",
      "description": "The screen used to flag insider wallets on Polymarket — $2,500 or more inside an hour on an outcome at 35 cents or less — run across every settled Polymarket market from January 2025 to April 2026: 113,863 bets by 17,858 wallets, $1.24bn staked, 24.4% won, a return of −3.67%.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate#by-category",
      "publishedAt": "2026-09-21",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-09-21",
      "version": "f646bc53a9d4d08566836d16d692b9100c5868658b04b27259ed80f0c3e37db9",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Figures describe Polymarket fills between 1 January 2025 and 28 April 2026 in markets that had settled by the end of that window. A screen is a filter on public trading records, not a finding about any person, and no wallet it selects is accused of anything here. Not a recommendation to trade, and not financial advice.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate/data.json?dataset=by-category-table",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate/data.csv?dataset=by-category-table"
      }
    },
    {
      "title": "What $100 staked came back as, by category",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Category",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Returned per $100 staked",
          "unit": "$"
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "Sports · 70,290 bets",
          98.2
        ],
        [
          "Politics · 11,049 bets",
          116.9
        ],
        [
          "Crypto · 10,413 bets",
          98.9
        ],
        [
          "Price Action · 4,047 bets",
          98.6
        ],
        [
          "Other · 2,403 bets",
          104.7
        ],
        [
          "Finance · 1,314 bets",
          42.8
        ],
        [
          "Culture · 1,241 bets",
          85.5
        ],
        [
          "Global Elections · 1,006 bets",
          13.1
        ],
        [
          "Fed Rates · 604 bets",
          3.6
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Gross of fees, Polymarket settled markets, 1 January 2025 to 28 April 2026. $100 is break-even. Categories with at least 1,000 flagged bets, plus Fed rate decisions.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Anti-Corruption Data Collective — Classifying Insider Trading Risk: Analyzing the Longshot Betting Ecosystem on Polymarket",
          "url": "https://acdatacollective.org/work/classifying-insider-trading-risk-analyzing-the-longshot-betting-ecosystem-on-polymarket/",
          "note": "August 2026. Defines a long-shot bet as \"more than $2500 wagered at 35 cents or less\" and the wallet profile as betting in a small number of markets and on very few topics with a success rate above 75%. Settled markets through 5 May 2026; 12,355 long-shot wallets classified, 556 of them matching the profile."
        },
        {
          "label": "Reuters — More than 150 Polymarket wallets may have traded on military secrets, research finds",
          "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/more-than-150-polymarket-wallets-may-have-traded-military-secrets-research-finds-2026-08-20/",
          "note": "20 August 2026. First report of the study; renders the threshold as at least $2,500 placed cumulatively in an hour or less at odds of 35% or lower. 152 wallets concentrated on military and defence markets, about $8 million won at an average 97.2% win rate against roughly 52% for long-shot bets in those markets generally."
        },
        {
          "label": "CNN — Polymarket referred dozens of possible military insider trading cases to DOJ, source says",
          "url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/21/politics/polymarket-doj-military-prediction-market",
          "note": "21 August 2026. A senior Polymarket official said the referrals predated the report and that internal surveillance monitors around 150 further signals and trading patterns. Polymarket has not been accused of wrongdoing; the Department of Justice did not comment."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Market Integrity Policy",
          "url": "https://integrity.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "The venue's own policy: trading on stolen or confidential information and trading by anyone positioned to influence an outcome are prohibited; real-time surveillance and referral to law enforcement are described."
        },
        {
          "label": "Bloomberg Businessweek — Polymarket and Kalshi Grapple With a New Era of Insider Traders",
          "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-polymarket-traders-who-knew-the-future/",
          "note": "20 July 2026. About 34,000 Polymarket transactions flagged by Polysights between August 2025 and June 2026; 57% of flagged wallets created less than 24 hours before their flagged trades; 38 connected wallets across 90 Iran and Venezuela markets won 98% of them for about $1.6 million. A flag is not presented as proof of wrongdoing."
        },
        {
          "label": "The Wall Street Journal — Cluster of Polymarket Accounts Won Big on Companies Audited by KPMG",
          "url": "https://www.wsj.com/business/c-suite/cluster-of-polymarket-accounts-won-big-on-companies-audited-by-kpmg-b4d322f7",
          "note": "11 September 2026. Bubblemaps clustering linked 19 accounts that went 41 for 42 on earnings bets across roughly 18 KPMG audit clients from November 2025, for about $22,000. KPMG cited zero tolerance for misuse of non-public client information; Bubblemaps said clustering alone does not prove insider trading."
        },
        {
          "label": "Mitts and Ofir — From Iran to Taylor Swift: Informed Trading in Prediction Markets",
          "url": "https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6426778",
          "note": "SSRN working paper, March 2026. Every Polymarket contract from February 2024 to February 2026 scored on bet size, profitability, pre-event timing and directional concentration: 210,718 suspicious wallet-market pairs, a 69.9% win rate more than 60 standard deviations above a permutation null, about $143 million of anomalous profit."
        },
        {
          "label": "Nechepurenko — Per-Market Information Leakage and Order-Flow Skill",
          "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.02287",
          "note": "May 2026. Sets out the limitation of an outcome-conditioned score: profitability is only known at resolution, so the screen gives no real-time signal and does not separate skill from luck on its own."
        },
        {
          "label": "CFTC — Enforcement Division issues Prediction Markets Advisory",
          "url": "https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9185-26",
          "note": "25 February 2026. Names insider trading, fraud and manipulation, wash sales and pre-arranged trading as conduct the Commission polices on any designated contract market."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket trading fees",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/trading/fees",
          "note": "\"Makers are never charged fees. Only takers pay fees.\" The basis for charging the tape's fee field entirely to the taker in the net-of-fee figures."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket Data API — wallet activity",
          "url": "https://data-api.polymarket.com/activity",
          "note": "Used to calibrate the first-seen dates: a stratified sample of 500 wallets was checked against the earliest activity record the venue holds, and 500 of 500 resolved."
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: Polymarket prices tested against 6,776 resolved markets",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-market-fair-value-calibration",
          "note": "The favourite-longshot effect measured from the price side rather than the wallet side"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: 1.6% of Polymarket wallets never sleep",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-wallets-that-never-sleep-trading-cadence",
          "note": "The wallet population these flagged wallets sit inside, measured by cadence"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: where Polymarket profits go",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-traders-leaderboards",
          "note": "Realised profit and loss per wallet, and how little of it persists"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax methodology",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/methodology",
          "note": "How Vultax measures, and what it does not claim"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket activity API documentation",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/api-reference/core/get-user-activity",
          "note": "Oldest public trade per wallet; read 19 September 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax wallet-age check, 500 wallets",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/polymarket-wallet-first-seen-history-audit/wallet-age-audit.csv",
          "note": "First recorded fill against oldest public trade; addresses replaced by sample numbers."
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2025-01-01/2026-04-28",
        "population": "The eight categories with at least 1,000 qualifying bets, plus Fed Rates",
        "methodology": "One bet is one wallet-market-side episode whose rolling one-hour stake reached $2,500 over fills where the side held was priced at 35 cents or less. Stake is shares times entry price; gross profit is winning shares minus stake."
      },
      "id": "by-category-chart",
      "kind": "published-chart",
      "description": "The screen used to flag insider wallets on Polymarket — $2,500 or more inside an hour on an outcome at 35 cents or less — run across every settled Polymarket market from January 2025 to April 2026: 113,863 bets by 17,858 wallets, $1.24bn staked, 24.4% won, a return of −3.67%.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate#by-category",
      "publishedAt": "2026-09-21",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-09-21",
      "version": "9522f1616b02063f91bba8b21fd0b994fa679240eab0f8a497c640dbce44fa57",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Figures describe Polymarket fills between 1 January 2025 and 28 April 2026 in markets that had settled by the end of that window. A screen is a filter on public trading records, not a finding about any person, and no wallet it selects is accused of anything here. Not a recommendation to trade, and not financial advice.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate/data.json?dataset=by-category-chart",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate/data.csv?dataset=by-category-chart"
      }
    },
    {
      "title": "Share of flagged bets that won, against the price the market charged",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Category",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Bets that won",
          "unit": "%"
        },
        {
          "name": "Average price paid",
          "unit": "%"
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "Sports",
          25.54,
          24.48
        ],
        [
          "Politics",
          23.61,
          19.66
        ],
        [
          "Crypto",
          23.85,
          21.72
        ],
        [
          "Price Action",
          22.93,
          21.69
        ],
        [
          "Global Elections",
          5.67,
          17.66
        ],
        [
          "Fed Rates",
          2.15,
          12.07
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Polymarket settled markets, 1 January 2025 to 28 April 2026. The four categories with more than 4,000 flagged bets, plus the two subjects the market priced most confidently.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Anti-Corruption Data Collective — Classifying Insider Trading Risk: Analyzing the Longshot Betting Ecosystem on Polymarket",
          "url": "https://acdatacollective.org/work/classifying-insider-trading-risk-analyzing-the-longshot-betting-ecosystem-on-polymarket/",
          "note": "August 2026. Defines a long-shot bet as \"more than $2500 wagered at 35 cents or less\" and the wallet profile as betting in a small number of markets and on very few topics with a success rate above 75%. Settled markets through 5 May 2026; 12,355 long-shot wallets classified, 556 of them matching the profile."
        },
        {
          "label": "Reuters — More than 150 Polymarket wallets may have traded on military secrets, research finds",
          "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/more-than-150-polymarket-wallets-may-have-traded-military-secrets-research-finds-2026-08-20/",
          "note": "20 August 2026. First report of the study; renders the threshold as at least $2,500 placed cumulatively in an hour or less at odds of 35% or lower. 152 wallets concentrated on military and defence markets, about $8 million won at an average 97.2% win rate against roughly 52% for long-shot bets in those markets generally."
        },
        {
          "label": "CNN — Polymarket referred dozens of possible military insider trading cases to DOJ, source says",
          "url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/21/politics/polymarket-doj-military-prediction-market",
          "note": "21 August 2026. A senior Polymarket official said the referrals predated the report and that internal surveillance monitors around 150 further signals and trading patterns. Polymarket has not been accused of wrongdoing; the Department of Justice did not comment."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Market Integrity Policy",
          "url": "https://integrity.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "The venue's own policy: trading on stolen or confidential information and trading by anyone positioned to influence an outcome are prohibited; real-time surveillance and referral to law enforcement are described."
        },
        {
          "label": "Bloomberg Businessweek — Polymarket and Kalshi Grapple With a New Era of Insider Traders",
          "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-polymarket-traders-who-knew-the-future/",
          "note": "20 July 2026. About 34,000 Polymarket transactions flagged by Polysights between August 2025 and June 2026; 57% of flagged wallets created less than 24 hours before their flagged trades; 38 connected wallets across 90 Iran and Venezuela markets won 98% of them for about $1.6 million. A flag is not presented as proof of wrongdoing."
        },
        {
          "label": "The Wall Street Journal — Cluster of Polymarket Accounts Won Big on Companies Audited by KPMG",
          "url": "https://www.wsj.com/business/c-suite/cluster-of-polymarket-accounts-won-big-on-companies-audited-by-kpmg-b4d322f7",
          "note": "11 September 2026. Bubblemaps clustering linked 19 accounts that went 41 for 42 on earnings bets across roughly 18 KPMG audit clients from November 2025, for about $22,000. KPMG cited zero tolerance for misuse of non-public client information; Bubblemaps said clustering alone does not prove insider trading."
        },
        {
          "label": "Mitts and Ofir — From Iran to Taylor Swift: Informed Trading in Prediction Markets",
          "url": "https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6426778",
          "note": "SSRN working paper, March 2026. Every Polymarket contract from February 2024 to February 2026 scored on bet size, profitability, pre-event timing and directional concentration: 210,718 suspicious wallet-market pairs, a 69.9% win rate more than 60 standard deviations above a permutation null, about $143 million of anomalous profit."
        },
        {
          "label": "Nechepurenko — Per-Market Information Leakage and Order-Flow Skill",
          "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.02287",
          "note": "May 2026. Sets out the limitation of an outcome-conditioned score: profitability is only known at resolution, so the screen gives no real-time signal and does not separate skill from luck on its own."
        },
        {
          "label": "CFTC — Enforcement Division issues Prediction Markets Advisory",
          "url": "https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9185-26",
          "note": "25 February 2026. Names insider trading, fraud and manipulation, wash sales and pre-arranged trading as conduct the Commission polices on any designated contract market."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket trading fees",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/trading/fees",
          "note": "\"Makers are never charged fees. Only takers pay fees.\" The basis for charging the tape's fee field entirely to the taker in the net-of-fee figures."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket Data API — wallet activity",
          "url": "https://data-api.polymarket.com/activity",
          "note": "Used to calibrate the first-seen dates: a stratified sample of 500 wallets was checked against the earliest activity record the venue holds, and 500 of 500 resolved."
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: Polymarket prices tested against 6,776 resolved markets",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-market-fair-value-calibration",
          "note": "The favourite-longshot effect measured from the price side rather than the wallet side"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: 1.6% of Polymarket wallets never sleep",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-wallets-that-never-sleep-trading-cadence",
          "note": "The wallet population these flagged wallets sit inside, measured by cadence"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: where Polymarket profits go",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-traders-leaderboards",
          "note": "Realised profit and loss per wallet, and how little of it persists"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax methodology",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/methodology",
          "note": "How Vultax measures, and what it does not claim"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket activity API documentation",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/api-reference/core/get-user-activity",
          "note": "Oldest public trade per wallet; read 19 September 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax wallet-age check, 500 wallets",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/polymarket-wallet-first-seen-history-audit/wallet-age-audit.csv",
          "note": "First recorded fill against oldest public trade; addresses replaced by sample numbers."
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2025-01-01/2026-04-28",
        "population": "Six Polymarket categories: the four with more than 4,000 qualifying bets, plus Global Elections and Fed Rates",
        "methodology": "Win rate counts each qualifying bet once. Average price paid is the mean entry price of the side held, in cents, shown on the same axis as a percentage."
      },
      "id": "win-rate-chart",
      "kind": "published-chart",
      "description": "The screen used to flag insider wallets on Polymarket — $2,500 or more inside an hour on an outcome at 35 cents or less — run across every settled Polymarket market from January 2025 to April 2026: 113,863 bets by 17,858 wallets, $1.24bn staked, 24.4% won, a return of −3.67%.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate#win-rate",
      "publishedAt": "2026-09-21",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-09-21",
      "version": "5286748eb26d08fa9903cedcabf88328db7f9fcd31f0e1805080281e6cbf736e",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Figures describe Polymarket fills between 1 January 2025 and 28 April 2026 in markets that had settled by the end of that window. A screen is a filter on public trading records, not a finding about any person, and no wallet it selects is accused of anything here. Not a recommendation to trade, and not financial advice.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate/data.json?dataset=win-rate-chart",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate/data.csv?dataset=win-rate-chart"
      }
    },
    {
      "title": "Perfect records against chance",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Qualifying bets placed",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Wallets",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Perfect records",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Expected by chance",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Observed ÷ expected",
          "unit": null
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "3 to 4",
          "1,901",
          "32",
          "18.02",
          "1.78"
        ],
        [
          "5 to 9",
          "1,422",
          "1",
          "0.45",
          "2.22"
        ],
        [
          "10 to 24",
          "890",
          "0",
          "0.00",
          "—"
        ],
        [
          "25 or more",
          "753",
          "0",
          "0.00",
          "—"
        ],
        [
          "All wallets with 3 or more",
          "4,966",
          "33",
          "18.50",
          "1.79"
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Expected counts assume each qualifying bet wins with the probability of its own average entry price, and sum that wallet-level probability across the band. Polymarket settled markets, 1 January 2025 to 28 April 2026.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Anti-Corruption Data Collective — Classifying Insider Trading Risk: Analyzing the Longshot Betting Ecosystem on Polymarket",
          "url": "https://acdatacollective.org/work/classifying-insider-trading-risk-analyzing-the-longshot-betting-ecosystem-on-polymarket/",
          "note": "August 2026. Defines a long-shot bet as \"more than $2500 wagered at 35 cents or less\" and the wallet profile as betting in a small number of markets and on very few topics with a success rate above 75%. Settled markets through 5 May 2026; 12,355 long-shot wallets classified, 556 of them matching the profile."
        },
        {
          "label": "Reuters — More than 150 Polymarket wallets may have traded on military secrets, research finds",
          "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/more-than-150-polymarket-wallets-may-have-traded-military-secrets-research-finds-2026-08-20/",
          "note": "20 August 2026. First report of the study; renders the threshold as at least $2,500 placed cumulatively in an hour or less at odds of 35% or lower. 152 wallets concentrated on military and defence markets, about $8 million won at an average 97.2% win rate against roughly 52% for long-shot bets in those markets generally."
        },
        {
          "label": "CNN — Polymarket referred dozens of possible military insider trading cases to DOJ, source says",
          "url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/21/politics/polymarket-doj-military-prediction-market",
          "note": "21 August 2026. A senior Polymarket official said the referrals predated the report and that internal surveillance monitors around 150 further signals and trading patterns. Polymarket has not been accused of wrongdoing; the Department of Justice did not comment."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Market Integrity Policy",
          "url": "https://integrity.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "The venue's own policy: trading on stolen or confidential information and trading by anyone positioned to influence an outcome are prohibited; real-time surveillance and referral to law enforcement are described."
        },
        {
          "label": "Bloomberg Businessweek — Polymarket and Kalshi Grapple With a New Era of Insider Traders",
          "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-polymarket-traders-who-knew-the-future/",
          "note": "20 July 2026. About 34,000 Polymarket transactions flagged by Polysights between August 2025 and June 2026; 57% of flagged wallets created less than 24 hours before their flagged trades; 38 connected wallets across 90 Iran and Venezuela markets won 98% of them for about $1.6 million. A flag is not presented as proof of wrongdoing."
        },
        {
          "label": "The Wall Street Journal — Cluster of Polymarket Accounts Won Big on Companies Audited by KPMG",
          "url": "https://www.wsj.com/business/c-suite/cluster-of-polymarket-accounts-won-big-on-companies-audited-by-kpmg-b4d322f7",
          "note": "11 September 2026. Bubblemaps clustering linked 19 accounts that went 41 for 42 on earnings bets across roughly 18 KPMG audit clients from November 2025, for about $22,000. KPMG cited zero tolerance for misuse of non-public client information; Bubblemaps said clustering alone does not prove insider trading."
        },
        {
          "label": "Mitts and Ofir — From Iran to Taylor Swift: Informed Trading in Prediction Markets",
          "url": "https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6426778",
          "note": "SSRN working paper, March 2026. Every Polymarket contract from February 2024 to February 2026 scored on bet size, profitability, pre-event timing and directional concentration: 210,718 suspicious wallet-market pairs, a 69.9% win rate more than 60 standard deviations above a permutation null, about $143 million of anomalous profit."
        },
        {
          "label": "Nechepurenko — Per-Market Information Leakage and Order-Flow Skill",
          "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.02287",
          "note": "May 2026. Sets out the limitation of an outcome-conditioned score: profitability is only known at resolution, so the screen gives no real-time signal and does not separate skill from luck on its own."
        },
        {
          "label": "CFTC — Enforcement Division issues Prediction Markets Advisory",
          "url": "https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9185-26",
          "note": "25 February 2026. Names insider trading, fraud and manipulation, wash sales and pre-arranged trading as conduct the Commission polices on any designated contract market."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket trading fees",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/trading/fees",
          "note": "\"Makers are never charged fees. Only takers pay fees.\" The basis for charging the tape's fee field entirely to the taker in the net-of-fee figures."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket Data API — wallet activity",
          "url": "https://data-api.polymarket.com/activity",
          "note": "Used to calibrate the first-seen dates: a stratified sample of 500 wallets was checked against the earliest activity record the venue holds, and 500 of 500 resolved."
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: Polymarket prices tested against 6,776 resolved markets",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-market-fair-value-calibration",
          "note": "The favourite-longshot effect measured from the price side rather than the wallet side"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: 1.6% of Polymarket wallets never sleep",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-wallets-that-never-sleep-trading-cadence",
          "note": "The wallet population these flagged wallets sit inside, measured by cadence"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: where Polymarket profits go",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-traders-leaderboards",
          "note": "Realised profit and loss per wallet, and how little of it persists"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax methodology",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/methodology",
          "note": "How Vultax measures, and what it does not claim"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket activity API documentation",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/api-reference/core/get-user-activity",
          "note": "Oldest public trade per wallet; read 19 September 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax wallet-age check, 500 wallets",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/polymarket-wallet-first-seen-history-audit/wallet-age-audit.csv",
          "note": "First recorded fill against oldest public trade; addresses replaced by sample numbers."
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2025-01-01/2026-04-28",
        "population": "4,966 Polymarket wallets with three or more qualifying bets",
        "methodology": "Per wallet, the probability of a perfect record is the product of its qualifying bets' average entry prices; expected counts are the sum of those probabilities within each band."
      },
      "id": "perfect-records-table",
      "kind": "published-table",
      "description": "The screen used to flag insider wallets on Polymarket — $2,500 or more inside an hour on an outcome at 35 cents or less — run across every settled Polymarket market from January 2025 to April 2026: 113,863 bets by 17,858 wallets, $1.24bn staked, 24.4% won, a return of −3.67%.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate#perfect-records",
      "publishedAt": "2026-09-21",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-09-21",
      "version": "4463a3f4de83b134c788e4b2a003a429a53293c977f0e71ba8bdff2e0a44a6f4",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Figures describe Polymarket fills between 1 January 2025 and 28 April 2026 in markets that had settled by the end of that window. A screen is a filter on public trading records, not a finding about any person, and no wallet it selects is accused of anything here. Not a recommendation to trade, and not financial advice.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate/data.json?dataset=perfect-records-table",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate/data.csv?dataset=perfect-records-table"
      }
    },
    {
      "title": "What the success-rate filter actually selects",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Qualifying bets placed",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Wallets over a 75% success rate",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Their bets",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Gross profit",
          "unit": null
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "1",
          "1,888",
          "1,888",
          "+$46.75M"
        ],
        [
          "2",
          "138",
          "276",
          "+$6.76M"
        ],
        [
          "3 to 4",
          "32",
          "101",
          "+$3.21M"
        ],
        [
          "5 to 9",
          "12",
          "60",
          "+$1.96M"
        ],
        [
          "10 or more",
          "0",
          "0",
          "—"
        ],
        [
          "All",
          "2,070",
          "2,325",
          "+$58.67M"
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Every Polymarket wallet whose qualifying bets won more than 75% of the time, 1 January 2025 to 28 April 2026, by how many qualifying bets it placed. Profit is gross of fees and covers those bets only.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Anti-Corruption Data Collective — Classifying Insider Trading Risk: Analyzing the Longshot Betting Ecosystem on Polymarket",
          "url": "https://acdatacollective.org/work/classifying-insider-trading-risk-analyzing-the-longshot-betting-ecosystem-on-polymarket/",
          "note": "August 2026. Defines a long-shot bet as \"more than $2500 wagered at 35 cents or less\" and the wallet profile as betting in a small number of markets and on very few topics with a success rate above 75%. Settled markets through 5 May 2026; 12,355 long-shot wallets classified, 556 of them matching the profile."
        },
        {
          "label": "Reuters — More than 150 Polymarket wallets may have traded on military secrets, research finds",
          "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/more-than-150-polymarket-wallets-may-have-traded-military-secrets-research-finds-2026-08-20/",
          "note": "20 August 2026. First report of the study; renders the threshold as at least $2,500 placed cumulatively in an hour or less at odds of 35% or lower. 152 wallets concentrated on military and defence markets, about $8 million won at an average 97.2% win rate against roughly 52% for long-shot bets in those markets generally."
        },
        {
          "label": "CNN — Polymarket referred dozens of possible military insider trading cases to DOJ, source says",
          "url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/21/politics/polymarket-doj-military-prediction-market",
          "note": "21 August 2026. A senior Polymarket official said the referrals predated the report and that internal surveillance monitors around 150 further signals and trading patterns. Polymarket has not been accused of wrongdoing; the Department of Justice did not comment."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Market Integrity Policy",
          "url": "https://integrity.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "The venue's own policy: trading on stolen or confidential information and trading by anyone positioned to influence an outcome are prohibited; real-time surveillance and referral to law enforcement are described."
        },
        {
          "label": "Bloomberg Businessweek — Polymarket and Kalshi Grapple With a New Era of Insider Traders",
          "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-polymarket-traders-who-knew-the-future/",
          "note": "20 July 2026. About 34,000 Polymarket transactions flagged by Polysights between August 2025 and June 2026; 57% of flagged wallets created less than 24 hours before their flagged trades; 38 connected wallets across 90 Iran and Venezuela markets won 98% of them for about $1.6 million. A flag is not presented as proof of wrongdoing."
        },
        {
          "label": "The Wall Street Journal — Cluster of Polymarket Accounts Won Big on Companies Audited by KPMG",
          "url": "https://www.wsj.com/business/c-suite/cluster-of-polymarket-accounts-won-big-on-companies-audited-by-kpmg-b4d322f7",
          "note": "11 September 2026. Bubblemaps clustering linked 19 accounts that went 41 for 42 on earnings bets across roughly 18 KPMG audit clients from November 2025, for about $22,000. KPMG cited zero tolerance for misuse of non-public client information; Bubblemaps said clustering alone does not prove insider trading."
        },
        {
          "label": "Mitts and Ofir — From Iran to Taylor Swift: Informed Trading in Prediction Markets",
          "url": "https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6426778",
          "note": "SSRN working paper, March 2026. Every Polymarket contract from February 2024 to February 2026 scored on bet size, profitability, pre-event timing and directional concentration: 210,718 suspicious wallet-market pairs, a 69.9% win rate more than 60 standard deviations above a permutation null, about $143 million of anomalous profit."
        },
        {
          "label": "Nechepurenko — Per-Market Information Leakage and Order-Flow Skill",
          "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.02287",
          "note": "May 2026. Sets out the limitation of an outcome-conditioned score: profitability is only known at resolution, so the screen gives no real-time signal and does not separate skill from luck on its own."
        },
        {
          "label": "CFTC — Enforcement Division issues Prediction Markets Advisory",
          "url": "https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9185-26",
          "note": "25 February 2026. Names insider trading, fraud and manipulation, wash sales and pre-arranged trading as conduct the Commission polices on any designated contract market."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket trading fees",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/trading/fees",
          "note": "\"Makers are never charged fees. Only takers pay fees.\" The basis for charging the tape's fee field entirely to the taker in the net-of-fee figures."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket Data API — wallet activity",
          "url": "https://data-api.polymarket.com/activity",
          "note": "Used to calibrate the first-seen dates: a stratified sample of 500 wallets was checked against the earliest activity record the venue holds, and 500 of 500 resolved."
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: Polymarket prices tested against 6,776 resolved markets",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-market-fair-value-calibration",
          "note": "The favourite-longshot effect measured from the price side rather than the wallet side"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: 1.6% of Polymarket wallets never sleep",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-wallets-that-never-sleep-trading-cadence",
          "note": "The wallet population these flagged wallets sit inside, measured by cadence"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: where Polymarket profits go",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-traders-leaderboards",
          "note": "Realised profit and loss per wallet, and how little of it persists"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax methodology",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/methodology",
          "note": "How Vultax measures, and what it does not claim"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket activity API documentation",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/api-reference/core/get-user-activity",
          "note": "Oldest public trade per wallet; read 19 September 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax wallet-age check, 500 wallets",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/polymarket-wallet-first-seen-history-audit/wallet-age-audit.csv",
          "note": "First recorded fill against oldest public trade; addresses replaced by sample numbers."
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2025-01-01/2026-04-28",
        "population": "2,070 of 17,858 flagged Polymarket wallets, those with a success rate above 75% on their qualifying bets",
        "methodology": "The published wallet filter applied to the reproduction: success rate above 75% on qualifying bets, with no minimum number of bets, banded by bet count."
      },
      "id": "success-rate-filter-table",
      "kind": "published-table",
      "description": "The screen used to flag insider wallets on Polymarket — $2,500 or more inside an hour on an outcome at 35 cents or less — run across every settled Polymarket market from January 2025 to April 2026: 113,863 bets by 17,858 wallets, $1.24bn staked, 24.4% won, a return of −3.67%.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate#success-rate-filter",
      "publishedAt": "2026-09-21",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-09-21",
      "version": "5a1bbbac1c534c91a65f72225d088ee2398ee9311f6d858ffcc484fc8a257ddc",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Figures describe Polymarket fills between 1 January 2025 and 28 April 2026 in markets that had settled by the end of that window. A screen is a filter on public trading records, not a finding about any person, and no wallet it selects is accused of anything here. Not a recommendation to trade, and not financial advice.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate/data.json?dataset=success-rate-filter-table",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate/data.csv?dataset=success-rate-filter-table"
      }
    },
    {
      "title": "The wallets that appeared and immediately bet big",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Wallet age at its first qualifying bet",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Wallets",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Bets",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Bets that won",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Staked",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Gross profit",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Return",
          "unit": null
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "Up to 24 hours",
          "4,860",
          "27,910",
          "23.50%",
          "$381.3M",
          "−$19.58M",
          "−5.14%"
        ],
        [
          "24 to 48 hours",
          "633",
          "5,825",
          "25.46%",
          "$65.8M",
          "−$4.68M",
          "−7.12%"
        ],
        [
          "2 to 7 days",
          "1,745",
          "12,432",
          "24.59%",
          "$130.8M",
          "+$0.34M",
          "+0.26%"
        ],
        [
          "7 to 30 days",
          "3,012",
          "21,256",
          "24.95%",
          "$196.5M",
          "−$2.53M",
          "−1.29%"
        ],
        [
          "More than 30 days",
          "4,483",
          "22,795",
          "24.42%",
          "$208.8M",
          "−$8.79M",
          "−4.21%"
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "The 14,733 flagged wallets whose first-seen date is reliable, 1 January 2025 to 28 April 2026. Bets that won counts every qualifying bet in the band; returns are stake-weighted and gross of fees.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Anti-Corruption Data Collective — Classifying Insider Trading Risk: Analyzing the Longshot Betting Ecosystem on Polymarket",
          "url": "https://acdatacollective.org/work/classifying-insider-trading-risk-analyzing-the-longshot-betting-ecosystem-on-polymarket/",
          "note": "August 2026. Defines a long-shot bet as \"more than $2500 wagered at 35 cents or less\" and the wallet profile as betting in a small number of markets and on very few topics with a success rate above 75%. Settled markets through 5 May 2026; 12,355 long-shot wallets classified, 556 of them matching the profile."
        },
        {
          "label": "Reuters — More than 150 Polymarket wallets may have traded on military secrets, research finds",
          "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/more-than-150-polymarket-wallets-may-have-traded-military-secrets-research-finds-2026-08-20/",
          "note": "20 August 2026. First report of the study; renders the threshold as at least $2,500 placed cumulatively in an hour or less at odds of 35% or lower. 152 wallets concentrated on military and defence markets, about $8 million won at an average 97.2% win rate against roughly 52% for long-shot bets in those markets generally."
        },
        {
          "label": "CNN — Polymarket referred dozens of possible military insider trading cases to DOJ, source says",
          "url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/21/politics/polymarket-doj-military-prediction-market",
          "note": "21 August 2026. A senior Polymarket official said the referrals predated the report and that internal surveillance monitors around 150 further signals and trading patterns. Polymarket has not been accused of wrongdoing; the Department of Justice did not comment."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Market Integrity Policy",
          "url": "https://integrity.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "The venue's own policy: trading on stolen or confidential information and trading by anyone positioned to influence an outcome are prohibited; real-time surveillance and referral to law enforcement are described."
        },
        {
          "label": "Bloomberg Businessweek — Polymarket and Kalshi Grapple With a New Era of Insider Traders",
          "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-polymarket-traders-who-knew-the-future/",
          "note": "20 July 2026. About 34,000 Polymarket transactions flagged by Polysights between August 2025 and June 2026; 57% of flagged wallets created less than 24 hours before their flagged trades; 38 connected wallets across 90 Iran and Venezuela markets won 98% of them for about $1.6 million. A flag is not presented as proof of wrongdoing."
        },
        {
          "label": "The Wall Street Journal — Cluster of Polymarket Accounts Won Big on Companies Audited by KPMG",
          "url": "https://www.wsj.com/business/c-suite/cluster-of-polymarket-accounts-won-big-on-companies-audited-by-kpmg-b4d322f7",
          "note": "11 September 2026. Bubblemaps clustering linked 19 accounts that went 41 for 42 on earnings bets across roughly 18 KPMG audit clients from November 2025, for about $22,000. KPMG cited zero tolerance for misuse of non-public client information; Bubblemaps said clustering alone does not prove insider trading."
        },
        {
          "label": "Mitts and Ofir — From Iran to Taylor Swift: Informed Trading in Prediction Markets",
          "url": "https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6426778",
          "note": "SSRN working paper, March 2026. Every Polymarket contract from February 2024 to February 2026 scored on bet size, profitability, pre-event timing and directional concentration: 210,718 suspicious wallet-market pairs, a 69.9% win rate more than 60 standard deviations above a permutation null, about $143 million of anomalous profit."
        },
        {
          "label": "Nechepurenko — Per-Market Information Leakage and Order-Flow Skill",
          "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.02287",
          "note": "May 2026. Sets out the limitation of an outcome-conditioned score: profitability is only known at resolution, so the screen gives no real-time signal and does not separate skill from luck on its own."
        },
        {
          "label": "CFTC — Enforcement Division issues Prediction Markets Advisory",
          "url": "https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9185-26",
          "note": "25 February 2026. Names insider trading, fraud and manipulation, wash sales and pre-arranged trading as conduct the Commission polices on any designated contract market."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket trading fees",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/trading/fees",
          "note": "\"Makers are never charged fees. Only takers pay fees.\" The basis for charging the tape's fee field entirely to the taker in the net-of-fee figures."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket Data API — wallet activity",
          "url": "https://data-api.polymarket.com/activity",
          "note": "Used to calibrate the first-seen dates: a stratified sample of 500 wallets was checked against the earliest activity record the venue holds, and 500 of 500 resolved."
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: Polymarket prices tested against 6,776 resolved markets",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-market-fair-value-calibration",
          "note": "The favourite-longshot effect measured from the price side rather than the wallet side"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: 1.6% of Polymarket wallets never sleep",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-wallets-that-never-sleep-trading-cadence",
          "note": "The wallet population these flagged wallets sit inside, measured by cadence"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: where Polymarket profits go",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-traders-leaderboards",
          "note": "Realised profit and loss per wallet, and how little of it persists"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax methodology",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/methodology",
          "note": "How Vultax measures, and what it does not claim"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket activity API documentation",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/api-reference/core/get-user-activity",
          "note": "Oldest public trade per wallet; read 19 September 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax wallet-age check, 500 wallets",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/polymarket-wallet-first-seen-history-audit/wallet-age-audit.csv",
          "note": "First recorded fill against oldest public trade; addresses replaced by sample numbers."
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2025-01-01/2026-04-28",
        "population": "14,733 flagged Polymarket wallets whose first-seen date is not left-censored",
        "methodology": "Wallet age is the interval between the wallet's first fill anywhere on Polymarket in the window and the moment its first qualifying bet crossed $2,500. Wallets first seen before February 2025 are excluded as unreliable."
      },
      "id": "new-wallets-table",
      "kind": "published-table",
      "description": "The screen used to flag insider wallets on Polymarket — $2,500 or more inside an hour on an outcome at 35 cents or less — run across every settled Polymarket market from January 2025 to April 2026: 113,863 bets by 17,858 wallets, $1.24bn staked, 24.4% won, a return of −3.67%.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate#new-wallets",
      "publishedAt": "2026-09-21",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-09-21",
      "version": "597a2508b6892f401fce78e5510bfc0f93e784c7f431987b349c919c21c42ce7",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Figures describe Polymarket fills between 1 January 2025 and 28 April 2026 in markets that had settled by the end of that window. A screen is a filter on public trading records, not a finding about any person, and no wallet it selects is accused of anything here. Not a recommendation to trade, and not financial advice.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate/data.json?dataset=new-wallets-table",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate/data.csv?dataset=new-wallets-table"
      }
    },
    {
      "title": "How new is a new wallet: 134 of 250 first seen in the record's first month had traded before",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "First recorded fill",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Wallets checked",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Had an older public trade",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Share",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "95% interval",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Median head start",
          "unit": null
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "January 2025",
          "250",
          "134",
          "53.6%",
          "47.4–59.7%",
          "43 days"
        ],
        [
          "February 2025 onward",
          "250",
          "17",
          "6.8%",
          "4.3–10.6%",
          "146 days"
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Head start is the time from a wallet's oldest public trade to its first fill in the archive. Intervals are Wilson intervals within each group of 250.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Anti-Corruption Data Collective — Classifying Insider Trading Risk: Analyzing the Longshot Betting Ecosystem on Polymarket",
          "url": "https://acdatacollective.org/work/classifying-insider-trading-risk-analyzing-the-longshot-betting-ecosystem-on-polymarket/",
          "note": "August 2026. Defines a long-shot bet as \"more than $2500 wagered at 35 cents or less\" and the wallet profile as betting in a small number of markets and on very few topics with a success rate above 75%. Settled markets through 5 May 2026; 12,355 long-shot wallets classified, 556 of them matching the profile."
        },
        {
          "label": "Reuters — More than 150 Polymarket wallets may have traded on military secrets, research finds",
          "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/more-than-150-polymarket-wallets-may-have-traded-military-secrets-research-finds-2026-08-20/",
          "note": "20 August 2026. First report of the study; renders the threshold as at least $2,500 placed cumulatively in an hour or less at odds of 35% or lower. 152 wallets concentrated on military and defence markets, about $8 million won at an average 97.2% win rate against roughly 52% for long-shot bets in those markets generally."
        },
        {
          "label": "CNN — Polymarket referred dozens of possible military insider trading cases to DOJ, source says",
          "url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/21/politics/polymarket-doj-military-prediction-market",
          "note": "21 August 2026. A senior Polymarket official said the referrals predated the report and that internal surveillance monitors around 150 further signals and trading patterns. Polymarket has not been accused of wrongdoing; the Department of Justice did not comment."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Market Integrity Policy",
          "url": "https://integrity.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "The venue's own policy: trading on stolen or confidential information and trading by anyone positioned to influence an outcome are prohibited; real-time surveillance and referral to law enforcement are described."
        },
        {
          "label": "Bloomberg Businessweek — Polymarket and Kalshi Grapple With a New Era of Insider Traders",
          "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-polymarket-traders-who-knew-the-future/",
          "note": "20 July 2026. About 34,000 Polymarket transactions flagged by Polysights between August 2025 and June 2026; 57% of flagged wallets created less than 24 hours before their flagged trades; 38 connected wallets across 90 Iran and Venezuela markets won 98% of them for about $1.6 million. A flag is not presented as proof of wrongdoing."
        },
        {
          "label": "The Wall Street Journal — Cluster of Polymarket Accounts Won Big on Companies Audited by KPMG",
          "url": "https://www.wsj.com/business/c-suite/cluster-of-polymarket-accounts-won-big-on-companies-audited-by-kpmg-b4d322f7",
          "note": "11 September 2026. Bubblemaps clustering linked 19 accounts that went 41 for 42 on earnings bets across roughly 18 KPMG audit clients from November 2025, for about $22,000. KPMG cited zero tolerance for misuse of non-public client information; Bubblemaps said clustering alone does not prove insider trading."
        },
        {
          "label": "Mitts and Ofir — From Iran to Taylor Swift: Informed Trading in Prediction Markets",
          "url": "https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6426778",
          "note": "SSRN working paper, March 2026. Every Polymarket contract from February 2024 to February 2026 scored on bet size, profitability, pre-event timing and directional concentration: 210,718 suspicious wallet-market pairs, a 69.9% win rate more than 60 standard deviations above a permutation null, about $143 million of anomalous profit."
        },
        {
          "label": "Nechepurenko — Per-Market Information Leakage and Order-Flow Skill",
          "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.02287",
          "note": "May 2026. Sets out the limitation of an outcome-conditioned score: profitability is only known at resolution, so the screen gives no real-time signal and does not separate skill from luck on its own."
        },
        {
          "label": "CFTC — Enforcement Division issues Prediction Markets Advisory",
          "url": "https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9185-26",
          "note": "25 February 2026. Names insider trading, fraud and manipulation, wash sales and pre-arranged trading as conduct the Commission polices on any designated contract market."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket trading fees",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/trading/fees",
          "note": "\"Makers are never charged fees. Only takers pay fees.\" The basis for charging the tape's fee field entirely to the taker in the net-of-fee figures."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket Data API — wallet activity",
          "url": "https://data-api.polymarket.com/activity",
          "note": "Used to calibrate the first-seen dates: a stratified sample of 500 wallets was checked against the earliest activity record the venue holds, and 500 of 500 resolved."
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: Polymarket prices tested against 6,776 resolved markets",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-market-fair-value-calibration",
          "note": "The favourite-longshot effect measured from the price side rather than the wallet side"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: 1.6% of Polymarket wallets never sleep",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-wallets-that-never-sleep-trading-cadence",
          "note": "The wallet population these flagged wallets sit inside, measured by cadence"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: where Polymarket profits go",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-traders-leaderboards",
          "note": "Realised profit and loss per wallet, and how little of it persists"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax methodology",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/methodology",
          "note": "How Vultax measures, and what it does not claim"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket activity API documentation",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/api-reference/core/get-user-activity",
          "note": "Oldest public trade per wallet; read 19 September 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax wallet-age check, 500 wallets",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/polymarket-wallet-first-seen-history-audit/wallet-age-audit.csv",
          "note": "First recorded fill against oldest public trade; addresses replaced by sample numbers."
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2025-01-01/2026-04-28",
        "population": "500 Polymarket wallets with at least five recorded fills, 250 in each first-recorded group",
        "methodology": "First fill in the archive compared with the oldest trade returned by Polymarket's public activity API on 19 September 2026."
      },
      "id": "strata-table",
      "kind": "published-table",
      "description": "The screen used to flag insider wallets on Polymarket — $2,500 or more inside an hour on an outcome at 35 cents or less — run across every settled Polymarket market from January 2025 to April 2026: 113,863 bets by 17,858 wallets, $1.24bn staked, 24.4% won, a return of −3.67%.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate#strata",
      "publishedAt": "2026-09-21",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-09-21",
      "version": "d8ca3f31127536e51a454b76092fc45922415095da1e38e9b9a4311e7ae0d398",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Figures describe Polymarket fills between 1 January 2025 and 28 April 2026 in markets that had settled by the end of that window. A screen is a filter on public trading records, not a finding about any person, and no wallet it selects is accused of anything here. Not a recommendation to trade, and not financial advice.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate/data.json?dataset=strata-table",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate/data.csv?dataset=strata-table"
      }
    },
    {
      "title": "Wallets with a public trade older than their first recorded fill",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Category",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Share of wallets",
          "unit": "%"
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "First recorded January 2025",
          53.6
        ],
        [
          "First recorded February 2025 onward",
          6.8
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "250 wallets in each group; archive 1 January 2025 to 28 April 2026, public histories read 19 September 2026.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Anti-Corruption Data Collective — Classifying Insider Trading Risk: Analyzing the Longshot Betting Ecosystem on Polymarket",
          "url": "https://acdatacollective.org/work/classifying-insider-trading-risk-analyzing-the-longshot-betting-ecosystem-on-polymarket/",
          "note": "August 2026. Defines a long-shot bet as \"more than $2500 wagered at 35 cents or less\" and the wallet profile as betting in a small number of markets and on very few topics with a success rate above 75%. Settled markets through 5 May 2026; 12,355 long-shot wallets classified, 556 of them matching the profile."
        },
        {
          "label": "Reuters — More than 150 Polymarket wallets may have traded on military secrets, research finds",
          "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/more-than-150-polymarket-wallets-may-have-traded-military-secrets-research-finds-2026-08-20/",
          "note": "20 August 2026. First report of the study; renders the threshold as at least $2,500 placed cumulatively in an hour or less at odds of 35% or lower. 152 wallets concentrated on military and defence markets, about $8 million won at an average 97.2% win rate against roughly 52% for long-shot bets in those markets generally."
        },
        {
          "label": "CNN — Polymarket referred dozens of possible military insider trading cases to DOJ, source says",
          "url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/21/politics/polymarket-doj-military-prediction-market",
          "note": "21 August 2026. A senior Polymarket official said the referrals predated the report and that internal surveillance monitors around 150 further signals and trading patterns. Polymarket has not been accused of wrongdoing; the Department of Justice did not comment."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Market Integrity Policy",
          "url": "https://integrity.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "The venue's own policy: trading on stolen or confidential information and trading by anyone positioned to influence an outcome are prohibited; real-time surveillance and referral to law enforcement are described."
        },
        {
          "label": "Bloomberg Businessweek — Polymarket and Kalshi Grapple With a New Era of Insider Traders",
          "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-polymarket-traders-who-knew-the-future/",
          "note": "20 July 2026. About 34,000 Polymarket transactions flagged by Polysights between August 2025 and June 2026; 57% of flagged wallets created less than 24 hours before their flagged trades; 38 connected wallets across 90 Iran and Venezuela markets won 98% of them for about $1.6 million. A flag is not presented as proof of wrongdoing."
        },
        {
          "label": "The Wall Street Journal — Cluster of Polymarket Accounts Won Big on Companies Audited by KPMG",
          "url": "https://www.wsj.com/business/c-suite/cluster-of-polymarket-accounts-won-big-on-companies-audited-by-kpmg-b4d322f7",
          "note": "11 September 2026. Bubblemaps clustering linked 19 accounts that went 41 for 42 on earnings bets across roughly 18 KPMG audit clients from November 2025, for about $22,000. KPMG cited zero tolerance for misuse of non-public client information; Bubblemaps said clustering alone does not prove insider trading."
        },
        {
          "label": "Mitts and Ofir — From Iran to Taylor Swift: Informed Trading in Prediction Markets",
          "url": "https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6426778",
          "note": "SSRN working paper, March 2026. Every Polymarket contract from February 2024 to February 2026 scored on bet size, profitability, pre-event timing and directional concentration: 210,718 suspicious wallet-market pairs, a 69.9% win rate more than 60 standard deviations above a permutation null, about $143 million of anomalous profit."
        },
        {
          "label": "Nechepurenko — Per-Market Information Leakage and Order-Flow Skill",
          "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.02287",
          "note": "May 2026. Sets out the limitation of an outcome-conditioned score: profitability is only known at resolution, so the screen gives no real-time signal and does not separate skill from luck on its own."
        },
        {
          "label": "CFTC — Enforcement Division issues Prediction Markets Advisory",
          "url": "https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9185-26",
          "note": "25 February 2026. Names insider trading, fraud and manipulation, wash sales and pre-arranged trading as conduct the Commission polices on any designated contract market."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket trading fees",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/trading/fees",
          "note": "\"Makers are never charged fees. Only takers pay fees.\" The basis for charging the tape's fee field entirely to the taker in the net-of-fee figures."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket Data API — wallet activity",
          "url": "https://data-api.polymarket.com/activity",
          "note": "Used to calibrate the first-seen dates: a stratified sample of 500 wallets was checked against the earliest activity record the venue holds, and 500 of 500 resolved."
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: Polymarket prices tested against 6,776 resolved markets",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-market-fair-value-calibration",
          "note": "The favourite-longshot effect measured from the price side rather than the wallet side"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: 1.6% of Polymarket wallets never sleep",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-wallets-that-never-sleep-trading-cadence",
          "note": "The wallet population these flagged wallets sit inside, measured by cadence"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: where Polymarket profits go",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-traders-leaderboards",
          "note": "Realised profit and loss per wallet, and how little of it persists"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax methodology",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/methodology",
          "note": "How Vultax measures, and what it does not claim"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket activity API documentation",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/api-reference/core/get-user-activity",
          "note": "Oldest public trade per wallet; read 19 September 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax wallet-age check, 500 wallets",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/polymarket-wallet-first-seen-history-audit/wallet-age-audit.csv",
          "note": "First recorded fill against oldest public trade; addresses replaced by sample numbers."
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2025-01-01/2026-04-28",
        "population": "500 Polymarket wallets with at least five recorded fills, 250 in each first-recorded group",
        "methodology": "First fill in the archive compared with the oldest trade returned by Polymarket's public activity API on 19 September 2026."
      },
      "id": "strata-chart",
      "kind": "published-chart",
      "description": "The screen used to flag insider wallets on Polymarket — $2,500 or more inside an hour on an outcome at 35 cents or less — run across every settled Polymarket market from January 2025 to April 2026: 113,863 bets by 17,858 wallets, $1.24bn staked, 24.4% won, a return of −3.67%.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate#strata",
      "publishedAt": "2026-09-21",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-09-21",
      "version": "1b1c7ea24cfe6f52493cdd3916447d9ca6142ee1f0c964f80a571be70b1523ea",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Figures describe Polymarket fills between 1 January 2025 and 28 April 2026 in markets that had settled by the end of that window. A screen is a filter on public trading records, not a finding about any person, and no wallet it selects is accused of anything here. Not a recommendation to trade, and not financial advice.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate/data.json?dataset=strata-chart",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate/data.csv?dataset=strata-chart"
      }
    },
    {
      "title": "What a screen can and cannot show",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Win-rate band, wallets with 3 or more qualifying bets",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Wallets",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Bets",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Gross profit",
          "unit": null
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "90% or better",
          "33",
          "106",
          "+$3.53M"
        ],
        [
          "75% to 90%",
          "50",
          "219",
          "+$4.39M"
        ],
        [
          "50% to 75%",
          "458",
          "2,335",
          "+$28.20M"
        ],
        [
          "25% to 50%",
          "2,056",
          "50,495",
          "+$90.54M"
        ],
        [
          "Under 25%",
          "2,369",
          "45,194",
          "−$143.15M"
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "The same 4,966 wallets, sorted by their own win rate. Sorting on the outcome is what puts money at the top; the bands are a description of the sort, not of skill. Polymarket settled markets, 1 January 2025 to 28 April 2026.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Anti-Corruption Data Collective — Classifying Insider Trading Risk: Analyzing the Longshot Betting Ecosystem on Polymarket",
          "url": "https://acdatacollective.org/work/classifying-insider-trading-risk-analyzing-the-longshot-betting-ecosystem-on-polymarket/",
          "note": "August 2026. Defines a long-shot bet as \"more than $2500 wagered at 35 cents or less\" and the wallet profile as betting in a small number of markets and on very few topics with a success rate above 75%. Settled markets through 5 May 2026; 12,355 long-shot wallets classified, 556 of them matching the profile."
        },
        {
          "label": "Reuters — More than 150 Polymarket wallets may have traded on military secrets, research finds",
          "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/more-than-150-polymarket-wallets-may-have-traded-military-secrets-research-finds-2026-08-20/",
          "note": "20 August 2026. First report of the study; renders the threshold as at least $2,500 placed cumulatively in an hour or less at odds of 35% or lower. 152 wallets concentrated on military and defence markets, about $8 million won at an average 97.2% win rate against roughly 52% for long-shot bets in those markets generally."
        },
        {
          "label": "CNN — Polymarket referred dozens of possible military insider trading cases to DOJ, source says",
          "url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/21/politics/polymarket-doj-military-prediction-market",
          "note": "21 August 2026. A senior Polymarket official said the referrals predated the report and that internal surveillance monitors around 150 further signals and trading patterns. Polymarket has not been accused of wrongdoing; the Department of Justice did not comment."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Market Integrity Policy",
          "url": "https://integrity.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "The venue's own policy: trading on stolen or confidential information and trading by anyone positioned to influence an outcome are prohibited; real-time surveillance and referral to law enforcement are described."
        },
        {
          "label": "Bloomberg Businessweek — Polymarket and Kalshi Grapple With a New Era of Insider Traders",
          "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-polymarket-traders-who-knew-the-future/",
          "note": "20 July 2026. About 34,000 Polymarket transactions flagged by Polysights between August 2025 and June 2026; 57% of flagged wallets created less than 24 hours before their flagged trades; 38 connected wallets across 90 Iran and Venezuela markets won 98% of them for about $1.6 million. A flag is not presented as proof of wrongdoing."
        },
        {
          "label": "The Wall Street Journal — Cluster of Polymarket Accounts Won Big on Companies Audited by KPMG",
          "url": "https://www.wsj.com/business/c-suite/cluster-of-polymarket-accounts-won-big-on-companies-audited-by-kpmg-b4d322f7",
          "note": "11 September 2026. Bubblemaps clustering linked 19 accounts that went 41 for 42 on earnings bets across roughly 18 KPMG audit clients from November 2025, for about $22,000. KPMG cited zero tolerance for misuse of non-public client information; Bubblemaps said clustering alone does not prove insider trading."
        },
        {
          "label": "Mitts and Ofir — From Iran to Taylor Swift: Informed Trading in Prediction Markets",
          "url": "https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6426778",
          "note": "SSRN working paper, March 2026. Every Polymarket contract from February 2024 to February 2026 scored on bet size, profitability, pre-event timing and directional concentration: 210,718 suspicious wallet-market pairs, a 69.9% win rate more than 60 standard deviations above a permutation null, about $143 million of anomalous profit."
        },
        {
          "label": "Nechepurenko — Per-Market Information Leakage and Order-Flow Skill",
          "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.02287",
          "note": "May 2026. Sets out the limitation of an outcome-conditioned score: profitability is only known at resolution, so the screen gives no real-time signal and does not separate skill from luck on its own."
        },
        {
          "label": "CFTC — Enforcement Division issues Prediction Markets Advisory",
          "url": "https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9185-26",
          "note": "25 February 2026. Names insider trading, fraud and manipulation, wash sales and pre-arranged trading as conduct the Commission polices on any designated contract market."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket trading fees",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/trading/fees",
          "note": "\"Makers are never charged fees. Only takers pay fees.\" The basis for charging the tape's fee field entirely to the taker in the net-of-fee figures."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket Data API — wallet activity",
          "url": "https://data-api.polymarket.com/activity",
          "note": "Used to calibrate the first-seen dates: a stratified sample of 500 wallets was checked against the earliest activity record the venue holds, and 500 of 500 resolved."
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: Polymarket prices tested against 6,776 resolved markets",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-market-fair-value-calibration",
          "note": "The favourite-longshot effect measured from the price side rather than the wallet side"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: 1.6% of Polymarket wallets never sleep",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-wallets-that-never-sleep-trading-cadence",
          "note": "The wallet population these flagged wallets sit inside, measured by cadence"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: where Polymarket profits go",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-traders-leaderboards",
          "note": "Realised profit and loss per wallet, and how little of it persists"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax methodology",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/methodology",
          "note": "How Vultax measures, and what it does not claim"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket activity API documentation",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/api-reference/core/get-user-activity",
          "note": "Oldest public trade per wallet; read 19 September 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax wallet-age check, 500 wallets",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/polymarket-wallet-first-seen-history-audit/wallet-age-audit.csv",
          "note": "First recorded fill against oldest public trade; addresses replaced by sample numbers."
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2025-01-01/2026-04-28",
        "population": "4,966 Polymarket wallets with three or more qualifying bets",
        "methodology": "Wallets banded by the share of their own qualifying bets that won; profit is gross of fees over those bets only."
      },
      "id": "what-a-screen-shows-table",
      "kind": "published-table",
      "description": "The screen used to flag insider wallets on Polymarket — $2,500 or more inside an hour on an outcome at 35 cents or less — run across every settled Polymarket market from January 2025 to April 2026: 113,863 bets by 17,858 wallets, $1.24bn staked, 24.4% won, a return of −3.67%.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate#what-a-screen-shows",
      "publishedAt": "2026-09-21",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-09-21",
      "version": "2238e850601219b84b8d6ff15be4326de1c3be0a981dee7c492e14f3053671ad",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Figures describe Polymarket fills between 1 January 2025 and 28 April 2026 in markets that had settled by the end of that window. A screen is a filter on public trading records, not a finding about any person, and no wallet it selects is accused of anything here. Not a recommendation to trade, and not financial advice.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate/data.json?dataset=what-a-screen-shows-table",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate/data.csv?dataset=what-a-screen-shows-table"
      }
    }
  ]
}