Return on the flagged bet type, platform-wide: −3.67%

The screen used to flag insider wallets on Polymarket — $2,500 or more inside an hour on an outcome at 35 cents or less — run across every settled Polymarket market from January 2025 to April 2026: 113,863 bets by 17,858 wallets, $1.24bn staked, 24.4% won, a return of −3.67%.

- Politics, the one large category that paid: +16.87%
- Perfect records vs chance: 1.79×
- Return for wallets under 24 hours old: −5.14%

Observed 2025-01-01 to 2026-04-28, population: 714,691,643 fills across 662,215 settled Polymarket markets.

Study: https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate
Markdown: https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate.md
Data: https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate/data.json
Share card: https://vultax.com/og/article/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate
Live screen: https://app.vultax.com/analytics/traders

Vultax Research, The Polymarket Insider Screen, Run Platform-Wide: 113,863 Bets, 24% Won, −3.7%, 2026-09-21, https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate