{ "schemaVersion": "vultax-public-research-data-v1", "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets", "datasets": [ { "title": "Money traded on Polymarket by sport and hour of day", "columns": [ { "name": "Category", "unit": null }, { "name": "Tennis", "unit": "$" }, { "name": "Esports", "unit": "$" }, { "name": "Soccer", "unit": "$" }, { "name": "U.S. sports", "unit": "$" } ], "rows": [ [ "00", 366000, 63000, 95000, 532000 ], [ "01", 384000, 72000, 120000, 629000 ], [ "02", 353000, 79000, 113000, 516000 ], [ "03", 297000, 74000, 88000, 478000 ], [ "04", 176000, 107000, 212000, 186000 ], [ "05", 168000, 291000, 162000, 70000 ], [ "06", 120000, 341000, 96000, 14000 ], [ "07", 129000, 508000, 70000, 8000 ], [ "08", 177000, 1279000, 88000, 11000 ], [ "09", 251000, 1449000, 165000, 17000 ], [ "10", 304000, 1586000, 136000, 22000 ], [ "11", 357000, 1421000, 178000, 45000 ], [ "12", 328000, 1074000, 996000, 83000 ], [ "13", 375000, 812000, 731000, 152000 ], [ "14", 579000, 633000, 617000, 168000 ], [ "15", 643000, 767000, 827000, 271000 ], [ "16", 659000, 890000, 1051000, 241000 ], [ "17", 652000, 718000, 841000, 308000 ], [ "18", 880000, 645000, 1802000, 209000 ], [ "19", 753000, 358000, 1030000, 369000 ], [ "20", 552000, 339000, 1631000, 586000 ], [ "21", 723000, 333000, 793000, 494000 ], [ "22", 601000, 184000, 159000, 565000 ], [ "23", 388000, 112000, 140000, 607000 ] ], "measurementContext": "Average notional per observed hour, UTC, 21 Aug to 12 Sep 2026", "sources": [ { "label": "Polymarket Gamma API: markets by 24 h volume", "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?order=volume24hr&ascending=false&limit=100", "note": "Read 2026-09-06 07:00 UTC" }, { "label": "Polymarket: League of Legends markets", "url": "https://polymarket.com/sports/league-of-legends/games/week/1", "note": "LPL and LCK playoff markets" }, { "label": "Vultax: Fed decision odds, scored", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/fed-september-decision-coin-flip-polymarket-kalshi", "note": "The comparison market" }, { "label": "Vultax: 1.6% of Polymarket wallets never sleep", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-wallets-that-never-sleep-trading-cadence", "note": "The round-the-clock cohort" }, { "label": "Wikipedia — 2026 League of Legends World Championship", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_League_of_Legends_World_Championship", "note": "15 October to 14 November 2026: play-in in Los Angeles, Swiss and knockout stages in Allen, Texas, final at Barclays Center, New York, on 14 November." }, { "label": "LoL Esports — MSI and Worlds updates", "url": "https://lolesports.com/en-US/news/msi-and-worlds-updates", "note": "Riot's own schedule; the live strip on this page reads the same schedule API that powers lolesports.com." }, { "label": "Pew Research Center — Trading volume on prediction markets has soared in recent months (27 May 2026)", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2026/05/27/trading-volume-on-prediction-markets-has-soared-in-recent-months/", "note": "Sports made up about 80% of Kalshi's volume and 39% of Polymarket's since July 2024." }, { "label": "CNBC — 2026 FIFA World Cup boosts prediction market volumes (4 Jul 2026)", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/04/2026-fifa-world-cup-boosts-prediction-market-volumes.html", "note": "June 2026: about $44.8 billion combined across Kalshi and Polymarket, Polymarket's record month at $10.8 billion." }, { "label": "The Crypto Basic — Kalshi, Polymarket August volume drops 14.5% in first monthly decline in a year (2 Sep 2026)", "url": "https://thecryptobasic.com/2026/09/02/kalshi-polymarket-august-volume-drops-14-5-in-first-monthly-decline-in-a-year/", "note": "August 2026 was the first monthly decline in a year after the World Cup; Polymarket's August volume about $8.2 billion, down about 37% from July." }, { "label": "CoinDesk — Polymarket's trading volume may be 25% fake, Columbia study finds", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/11/07/polymarket-s-trading-volume-may-be-25-fake-columbia-study-finds", "note": "Sports markets carried the highest flagged share (about 45% of historical volume); election markets about 17%." }, { "label": "ESPN — CFTC proposes rules limiting prediction markets: no injuries, no props", "url": "https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story/_/id/49019930/cftc-proposes-rules-limiting-prediction-markets-kalshi-sports", "note": "Proposed rules would bar event contracts on officiating outcomes and player injuries, with a 45-day comment period." }, { "label": "Polymarket CLOB — order books", "url": "https://clob.polymarket.com/books", "note": "Read every five minutes, 12–13 September 2026" }, { "label": "Polymarket Gamma API — esports events", "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events/keyset?closed=false&tag_slug=esports", "note": "Market list, start times and clearBookOnStart flag" }, { "label": "Kalshi public trade API — order books", "url": "https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/events?series_ticker=KXNFLGAME&with_nested_markets=true", "note": "NFL, college football, Premier League and MLB game markets" }, { "label": "Vultax: Kalshi–Polymarket arbitrage after fees", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/kalshi-polymarket-arbitrage-gaps-after-fees", "note": "Pre-game NFL gaps that never crossed" }, { "label": "Vultax: Polymarket copy trading costs", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-copy-trading-costs-and-tools", "note": "What a follower pays after a delay" }, { "label": "Vultax: Crypto wash trading and real liquidity", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/crypto-wash-trading-what-the-research-shows", "note": "Why depth, not volume, describes a market" }, { "label": "Polymarket data API — trades", "url": "https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades", "note": "Public trade records underlying Vultax's hourly flow record" }, { "label": "Vultax: Polymarket's up-or-down crypto markets", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets", "note": "Share of trades and money in the crypto format" } ], "measurement": { "kind": "observed", "temporalCoverage": "2026-08-21T12:00Z/2026-09-12T18:00Z", "population": "251 observed hours of Polymarket trading", "methodology": "Notional by market family and UTC hour, divided by the number of times that hour was observed." }, "id": "clock-chart", "kind": "published-chart", "description": "Of $727.0 million of Polymarket trading Vultax observed from 21 August to 12 September 2026, esports took 21.4%, peaking mid-morning UTC. Before start on 12–13 September, a typical League of Legends book held $413 within 2 cents; an NFL game $523,000 on Polymarket and $1.74 million on Kalshi.", "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets", "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets#clock", "publishedAt": "2026-09-06", "modifiedAt": "2026-09-16", "version": "48cff107492d727aa3a70c6e6a4f17a45049cf1243c13cce18b5bcb2219f2583", "isLive": false, "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Figures describe public market data at the stated read time and fills observed by Vultax's pipeline; they are not a statement about any market's fairness or any participant's identity. Nothing here is financial advice.", "downloads": { "json": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets/data.json?dataset=clock-chart", "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets/data.csv?dataset=clock-chart" } }, { "title": "Sport by sport", "columns": [ { "name": "Sport or title", "unit": null }, { "name": "Traded", "unit": null }, { "name": "Busiest hour (UTC)", "unit": null }, { "name": "Quietest hour (UTC)", "unit": null }, { "name": "Busiest against quietest", "unit": null }, { "name": "Busiest weekday (UTC)", "unit": null } ], "rows": [ [ "League of Legends", "$92.0M", "10:00", "03:00", "69×", "Sat" ], [ "Other soccer leagues", "$81.3M", "20:00", "07:00", "29×", "Sat" ], [ "ATP tennis", "$70.8M", "18:00", "06:00", "11×", "Mon" ], [ "Counter-Strike 2", "$50.9M", "16:00", "00:00", "13×", "Fri" ], [ "MLB", "$48.6M", "20:00", "07:00", "102×", "Thu" ], [ "Premier League", "$36.6M", "12:00", "00:00", "409×", "Sun" ], [ "WTA tennis", "$27.1M", "17:00", "07:00", "23×", "Mon" ], [ "Dota 2", "$9.8M", "12:00", "01:00", "111×", "Sat" ], [ "College football", "$9.6M", "23:00", "11:00", "67×", "Sat" ], [ "NFL", "$4.9M", "00:00", "09:00", "347×", "Fri" ], [ "Valorant", "$3.2M", "21:00", "05:00", "162×", "Thu" ] ], "measurementContext": "Polymarket markets grouped by address prefix, 251 observed hours between 21 August and 12 September 2026. Other soccer leagues combines La Liga, Serie A, the Bundesliga, Ligue 1, European cup competitions and leagues in the Americas.", "sources": [ { "label": "Polymarket Gamma API: markets by 24 h volume", "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?order=volume24hr&ascending=false&limit=100", "note": "Read 2026-09-06 07:00 UTC" }, { "label": "Polymarket: League of Legends markets", "url": "https://polymarket.com/sports/league-of-legends/games/week/1", "note": "LPL and LCK playoff markets" }, { "label": "Vultax: Fed decision odds, scored", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/fed-september-decision-coin-flip-polymarket-kalshi", "note": "The comparison market" }, { "label": "Vultax: 1.6% of Polymarket wallets never sleep", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-wallets-that-never-sleep-trading-cadence", "note": "The round-the-clock cohort" }, { "label": "Wikipedia — 2026 League of Legends World Championship", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_League_of_Legends_World_Championship", "note": "15 October to 14 November 2026: play-in in Los Angeles, Swiss and knockout stages in Allen, Texas, final at Barclays Center, New York, on 14 November." }, { "label": "LoL Esports — MSI and Worlds updates", "url": "https://lolesports.com/en-US/news/msi-and-worlds-updates", "note": "Riot's own schedule; the live strip on this page reads the same schedule API that powers lolesports.com." }, { "label": "Pew Research Center — Trading volume on prediction markets has soared in recent months (27 May 2026)", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2026/05/27/trading-volume-on-prediction-markets-has-soared-in-recent-months/", "note": "Sports made up about 80% of Kalshi's volume and 39% of Polymarket's since July 2024." }, { "label": "CNBC — 2026 FIFA World Cup boosts prediction market volumes (4 Jul 2026)", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/04/2026-fifa-world-cup-boosts-prediction-market-volumes.html", "note": "June 2026: about $44.8 billion combined across Kalshi and Polymarket, Polymarket's record month at $10.8 billion." }, { "label": "The Crypto Basic — Kalshi, Polymarket August volume drops 14.5% in first monthly decline in a year (2 Sep 2026)", "url": "https://thecryptobasic.com/2026/09/02/kalshi-polymarket-august-volume-drops-14-5-in-first-monthly-decline-in-a-year/", "note": "August 2026 was the first monthly decline in a year after the World Cup; Polymarket's August volume about $8.2 billion, down about 37% from July." }, { "label": "CoinDesk — Polymarket's trading volume may be 25% fake, Columbia study finds", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/11/07/polymarket-s-trading-volume-may-be-25-fake-columbia-study-finds", "note": "Sports markets carried the highest flagged share (about 45% of historical volume); election markets about 17%." }, { "label": "ESPN — CFTC proposes rules limiting prediction markets: no injuries, no props", "url": "https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story/_/id/49019930/cftc-proposes-rules-limiting-prediction-markets-kalshi-sports", "note": "Proposed rules would bar event contracts on officiating outcomes and player injuries, with a 45-day comment period." }, { "label": "Polymarket CLOB — order books", "url": "https://clob.polymarket.com/books", "note": "Read every five minutes, 12–13 September 2026" }, { "label": "Polymarket Gamma API — esports events", "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events/keyset?closed=false&tag_slug=esports", "note": "Market list, start times and clearBookOnStart flag" }, { "label": "Kalshi public trade API — order books", "url": "https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/events?series_ticker=KXNFLGAME&with_nested_markets=true", "note": "NFL, college football, Premier League and MLB game markets" }, { "label": "Vultax: Kalshi–Polymarket arbitrage after fees", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/kalshi-polymarket-arbitrage-gaps-after-fees", "note": "Pre-game NFL gaps that never crossed" }, { "label": "Vultax: Polymarket copy trading costs", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-copy-trading-costs-and-tools", "note": "What a follower pays after a delay" }, { "label": "Vultax: Crypto wash trading and real liquidity", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/crypto-wash-trading-what-the-research-shows", "note": "Why depth, not volume, describes a market" }, { "label": "Polymarket data API — trades", "url": "https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades", "note": "Public trade records underlying Vultax's hourly flow record" }, { "label": "Vultax: Polymarket's up-or-down crypto markets", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets", "note": "Share of trades and money in the crypto format" } ], "measurement": { "kind": "observed", "temporalCoverage": "2026-08-21/2026-09-12", "population": "Polymarket sports and esports markets", "methodology": "Summed notional per family; busiest and quietest UTC hour by average notional per observed hour; weekday by average per observed hour." }, "id": "by-title-table", "kind": "published-table", "description": "Of $727.0 million of Polymarket trading Vultax observed from 21 August to 12 September 2026, esports took 21.4%, peaking mid-morning UTC. Before start on 12–13 September, a typical League of Legends book held $413 within 2 cents; an NFL game $523,000 on Polymarket and $1.74 million on Kalshi.", "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets", "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets#by-title", "publishedAt": "2026-09-06", "modifiedAt": "2026-09-16", "version": "632a63d01da6b25c61e87d254cde32078e54922bada87b76d5e192a0fa1fe8be", "isLive": false, "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Figures describe public market data at the stated read time and fills observed by Vultax's pipeline; they are not a statement about any market's fairness or any participant's identity. Nothing here is financial advice.", "downloads": { "json": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets/data.json?dataset=by-title-table", "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets/data.csv?dataset=by-title-table" } }, { "title": "How much sits behind the price", "columns": [ { "name": "Market", "unit": null }, { "name": "Venue", "unit": null }, { "name": "Markets", "unit": null }, { "name": "Median depth within 2¢", "unit": null }, { "name": "Readings with nothing within 2¢", "unit": null }, { "name": "Median spread", "unit": null }, { "name": "Spread, worst quarter", "unit": null } ], "rows": [ [ "NFL", "Kalshi", "26", "$1,742,232", "0.0%", "1¢", "1¢" ], [ "NFL", "Polymarket", "13", "$522,598", "0.0%", "1¢", "1¢" ], [ "MLB", "Kalshi", "54", "$487,398", "0.0%", "1¢", "1¢" ], [ "College football", "Kalshi", "60", "$290,031", "0.1%", "1¢", "1¢" ], [ "Premier League", "Kalshi", "9", "$148,070", "0.2%", "1¢", "1¢" ], [ "Premier League", "Polymarket", "9", "$115,343", "0.0%", "1¢", "1¢" ], [ "College football", "Polymarket", "51", "$28,705", "10.4%", "1¢", "1¢" ], [ "League of Legends", "Polymarket", "51", "$413", "29.0%", "1¢", "12¢" ], [ "Counter-Strike 2", "Polymarket", "147", "$39", "42.0%", "3¢", "36¢" ], [ "Dota 2", "Polymarket", "42", "$24", "44.3%", "3¢", "38¢" ], [ "Valorant", "Polymarket", "15", "$0", "58.9%", "22¢", "66¢" ] ], "measurementContext": "Game and match-winner markets priced 15 to 85 cents, readings up to six hours before the scheduled start, 18:51 UTC 12 September to 23:06 UTC 13 September 2026. Worst quarter is the 75th percentile of the spread. Kalshi lists esports markets too, but Vultax's collection did not include them, so the esports rows are Polymarket only.", "sources": [ { "label": "Polymarket Gamma API: markets by 24 h volume", "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?order=volume24hr&ascending=false&limit=100", "note": "Read 2026-09-06 07:00 UTC" }, { "label": "Polymarket: League of Legends markets", "url": "https://polymarket.com/sports/league-of-legends/games/week/1", "note": "LPL and LCK playoff markets" }, { "label": "Vultax: Fed decision odds, scored", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/fed-september-decision-coin-flip-polymarket-kalshi", "note": "The comparison market" }, { "label": "Vultax: 1.6% of Polymarket wallets never sleep", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-wallets-that-never-sleep-trading-cadence", "note": "The round-the-clock cohort" }, { "label": "Wikipedia — 2026 League of Legends World Championship", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_League_of_Legends_World_Championship", "note": "15 October to 14 November 2026: play-in in Los Angeles, Swiss and knockout stages in Allen, Texas, final at Barclays Center, New York, on 14 November." }, { "label": "LoL Esports — MSI and Worlds updates", "url": "https://lolesports.com/en-US/news/msi-and-worlds-updates", "note": "Riot's own schedule; the live strip on this page reads the same schedule API that powers lolesports.com." }, { "label": "Pew Research Center — Trading volume on prediction markets has soared in recent months (27 May 2026)", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2026/05/27/trading-volume-on-prediction-markets-has-soared-in-recent-months/", "note": "Sports made up about 80% of Kalshi's volume and 39% of Polymarket's since July 2024." }, { "label": "CNBC — 2026 FIFA World Cup boosts prediction market volumes (4 Jul 2026)", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/04/2026-fifa-world-cup-boosts-prediction-market-volumes.html", "note": "June 2026: about $44.8 billion combined across Kalshi and Polymarket, Polymarket's record month at $10.8 billion." }, { "label": "The Crypto Basic — Kalshi, Polymarket August volume drops 14.5% in first monthly decline in a year (2 Sep 2026)", "url": "https://thecryptobasic.com/2026/09/02/kalshi-polymarket-august-volume-drops-14-5-in-first-monthly-decline-in-a-year/", "note": "August 2026 was the first monthly decline in a year after the World Cup; Polymarket's August volume about $8.2 billion, down about 37% from July." }, { "label": "CoinDesk — Polymarket's trading volume may be 25% fake, Columbia study finds", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/11/07/polymarket-s-trading-volume-may-be-25-fake-columbia-study-finds", "note": "Sports markets carried the highest flagged share (about 45% of historical volume); election markets about 17%." }, { "label": "ESPN — CFTC proposes rules limiting prediction markets: no injuries, no props", "url": "https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story/_/id/49019930/cftc-proposes-rules-limiting-prediction-markets-kalshi-sports", "note": "Proposed rules would bar event contracts on officiating outcomes and player injuries, with a 45-day comment period." }, { "label": "Polymarket CLOB — order books", "url": "https://clob.polymarket.com/books", "note": "Read every five minutes, 12–13 September 2026" }, { "label": "Polymarket Gamma API — esports events", "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events/keyset?closed=false&tag_slug=esports", "note": "Market list, start times and clearBookOnStart flag" }, { "label": "Kalshi public trade API — order books", "url": "https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/events?series_ticker=KXNFLGAME&with_nested_markets=true", "note": "NFL, college football, Premier League and MLB game markets" }, { "label": "Vultax: Kalshi–Polymarket arbitrage after fees", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/kalshi-polymarket-arbitrage-gaps-after-fees", "note": "Pre-game NFL gaps that never crossed" }, { "label": "Vultax: Polymarket copy trading costs", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-copy-trading-costs-and-tools", "note": "What a follower pays after a delay" }, { "label": "Vultax: Crypto wash trading and real liquidity", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/crypto-wash-trading-what-the-research-shows", "note": "Why depth, not volume, describes a market" }, { "label": "Polymarket data API — trades", "url": "https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades", "note": "Public trade records underlying Vultax's hourly flow record" }, { "label": "Vultax: Polymarket's up-or-down crypto markets", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets", "note": "Share of trades and money in the crypto format" } ], "measurement": { "kind": "observed", "temporalCoverage": "2026-09-12T18:51Z/2026-09-13T23:06Z", "population": "477 game and match-winner markets on the two venues", "methodology": "Five-minute order-book readings; depth is price × size within 2 cents of the midpoint; medians and 75th percentiles across readings." }, "id": "depth-table", "kind": "published-table", "description": "Of $727.0 million of Polymarket trading Vultax observed from 21 August to 12 September 2026, esports took 21.4%, peaking mid-morning UTC. Before start on 12–13 September, a typical League of Legends book held $413 within 2 cents; an NFL game $523,000 on Polymarket and $1.74 million on Kalshi.", "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets", "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets#depth", "publishedAt": "2026-09-06", "modifiedAt": "2026-09-16", "version": "dbfcb2c8ebd4e58e774a1d3b7cb6e316d7a0eaaaca988b0bd78e3b127fe8ad87", "isLive": false, "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Figures describe public market data at the stated read time and fills observed by Vultax's pipeline; they are not a statement about any market's fairness or any participant's identity. 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the live strip on this page reads the same schedule API that powers lolesports.com." }, { "label": "Pew Research Center — Trading volume on prediction markets has soared in recent months (27 May 2026)", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2026/05/27/trading-volume-on-prediction-markets-has-soared-in-recent-months/", "note": "Sports made up about 80% of Kalshi's volume and 39% of Polymarket's since July 2024." }, { "label": "CNBC — 2026 FIFA World Cup boosts prediction market volumes (4 Jul 2026)", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/04/2026-fifa-world-cup-boosts-prediction-market-volumes.html", "note": "June 2026: about $44.8 billion combined across Kalshi and Polymarket, Polymarket's record month at $10.8 billion." }, { "label": "The Crypto Basic — Kalshi, Polymarket August volume drops 14.5% in first monthly decline in a year (2 Sep 2026)", "url": "https://thecryptobasic.com/2026/09/02/kalshi-polymarket-august-volume-drops-14-5-in-first-monthly-decline-in-a-year/", "note": "August 2026 was the first monthly decline in a year after the World Cup; Polymarket's August volume about $8.2 billion, down about 37% from July." }, { "label": "CoinDesk — Polymarket's trading volume may be 25% fake, Columbia study finds", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/11/07/polymarket-s-trading-volume-may-be-25-fake-columbia-study-finds", "note": "Sports markets carried the highest flagged share (about 45% of historical volume); election markets about 17%." }, { "label": "ESPN — CFTC proposes rules limiting prediction markets: no injuries, no props", "url": "https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story/_/id/49019930/cftc-proposes-rules-limiting-prediction-markets-kalshi-sports", "note": "Proposed rules would bar event contracts on officiating outcomes and player injuries, with a 45-day comment period." }, { "label": "Polymarket CLOB — order books", "url": "https://clob.polymarket.com/books", "note": "Read every five minutes, 12–13 September 2026" }, { "label": "Polymarket Gamma API — esports events", "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events/keyset?closed=false&tag_slug=esports", "note": "Market list, start times and clearBookOnStart flag" }, { "label": "Kalshi public trade API — order books", "url": "https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/events?series_ticker=KXNFLGAME&with_nested_markets=true", "note": "NFL, college football, Premier League and MLB game markets" }, { "label": "Vultax: Kalshi–Polymarket arbitrage after fees", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/kalshi-polymarket-arbitrage-gaps-after-fees", "note": "Pre-game NFL gaps that never crossed" }, { "label": "Vultax: Polymarket copy trading costs", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-copy-trading-costs-and-tools", "note": "What a follower pays after a delay" }, { "label": "Vultax: Crypto wash trading and real liquidity", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/crypto-wash-trading-what-the-research-shows", "note": "Why depth, not volume, describes a market" }, { "label": "Polymarket data API — trades", "url": "https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades", "note": "Public trade records underlying Vultax's hourly flow record" }, { "label": "Vultax: Polymarket's up-or-down crypto markets", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets", "note": "Share of trades and money in the crypto format" } ], "measurement": { "kind": "observed", "temporalCoverage": "2026-09-12T18:51Z/2026-09-13T23:06Z", "population": "328 Polymarket game and match-winner markets priced 15–85 cents", "methodology": "Sum of price × size of resting bids and asks within 2 cents of the midpoint, median across five-minute readings up to six hours before the scheduled start." }, "id": "depth-chart", "kind": "published-chart", "description": "Of $727.0 million of Polymarket trading Vultax observed from 21 August to 12 September 2026, esports took 21.4%, peaking mid-morning UTC. Before start on 12–13 September, a typical League of Legends book held $413 within 2 cents; an NFL game $523,000 on Polymarket and $1.74 million on Kalshi.", "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets", "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets#depth", "publishedAt": "2026-09-06", "modifiedAt": "2026-09-16", "version": "d735b8784acc5920f8257596a35f0461e1006532cac8b8e38750cad4c4d9c1d2", "isLive": false, "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Figures describe public market data at the stated read time and fills observed by Vultax's pipeline; they are not a statement about any market's fairness or any participant's identity. Nothing here is financial advice.", "downloads": { "json": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets/data.json?dataset=depth-chart", "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets/data.csv?dataset=depth-chart" } }, { "title": "Who trades them: esports draws the broadest crowds", "columns": [ { "name": "Market family", "unit": null }, { "name": "Markets", "unit": null }, { "name": "Median wallets per market", "unit": null }, { "name": "Largest wallet's median share", "unit": null }, { "name": "Top five's median share", "unit": null } ], "rows": [ [ "Dota 2", "277", "72", "21.5%", "60.3%" ], [ "League of Legends", "878", "63", "25.2%", "64.6%" ], [ "Counter-Strike 2", "1,465", "53", "29.4%", "69.2%" ], [ "Valorant", "147", "41", "33.7%", "73.5%" ], [ "ATP tennis", "1,053", "63", "35.7%", "78.3%" ], [ "WTA tennis", "443", "58", "36.5%", "79.8%" ], [ "Premier League", "571", "27", "48.1%", "90.9%" ], [ "MLB", "1,361", "28", "50.0%", "91.4%" ], [ "NFL", "143", "16", "58.0%", "96.5%" ], [ "College football", "663", "12", "65.1%", "98.2%" ] ], "measurementContext": "Polymarket markets with at least $1,000 traded in 251 observed hours between 21 August and 12 September 2026, all market types. Shares are of each market's traded notional; money traded by sport, across all markets, is in the sport-by-sport table.", "sources": [ { "label": "Polymarket Gamma API: markets by 24 h volume", "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?order=volume24hr&ascending=false&limit=100", "note": "Read 2026-09-06 07:00 UTC" }, { "label": "Polymarket: League of Legends markets", "url": "https://polymarket.com/sports/league-of-legends/games/week/1", "note": "LPL and LCK playoff markets" }, { "label": "Vultax: Fed decision odds, scored", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/fed-september-decision-coin-flip-polymarket-kalshi", "note": "The comparison market" }, { "label": "Vultax: 1.6% of Polymarket wallets never sleep", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-wallets-that-never-sleep-trading-cadence", "note": "The round-the-clock cohort" }, { "label": "Wikipedia — 2026 League of Legends World Championship", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_League_of_Legends_World_Championship", "note": "15 October to 14 November 2026: play-in in Los Angeles, Swiss and knockout stages in Allen, Texas, final at Barclays Center, New York, on 14 November." }, { "label": "LoL Esports — MSI and Worlds updates", "url": "https://lolesports.com/en-US/news/msi-and-worlds-updates", "note": "Riot's own schedule; the live strip on this page reads the same schedule API that powers lolesports.com." }, { "label": "Pew Research Center — Trading volume on prediction markets has soared in recent months (27 May 2026)", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2026/05/27/trading-volume-on-prediction-markets-has-soared-in-recent-months/", "note": "Sports made up about 80% of Kalshi's volume and 39% of Polymarket's since July 2024." }, { "label": "CNBC — 2026 FIFA World Cup boosts prediction market volumes (4 Jul 2026)", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/04/2026-fifa-world-cup-boosts-prediction-market-volumes.html", "note": "June 2026: about $44.8 billion combined across Kalshi and Polymarket, Polymarket's record month at $10.8 billion." }, { "label": "The Crypto Basic — Kalshi, Polymarket August volume drops 14.5% in first monthly decline in a year (2 Sep 2026)", "url": "https://thecryptobasic.com/2026/09/02/kalshi-polymarket-august-volume-drops-14-5-in-first-monthly-decline-in-a-year/", "note": "August 2026 was the first monthly decline in a year after the World Cup; Polymarket's August volume about $8.2 billion, down about 37% from July." }, { "label": "CoinDesk — Polymarket's trading volume may be 25% fake, Columbia study finds", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/11/07/polymarket-s-trading-volume-may-be-25-fake-columbia-study-finds", "note": "Sports markets carried the highest flagged share (about 45% of historical volume); election markets about 17%." }, { "label": "ESPN — CFTC proposes rules limiting prediction markets: no injuries, no props", "url": "https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story/_/id/49019930/cftc-proposes-rules-limiting-prediction-markets-kalshi-sports", "note": "Proposed rules would bar event contracts on officiating outcomes and player injuries, with a 45-day comment period." }, { "label": "Polymarket CLOB — order books", "url": "https://clob.polymarket.com/books", "note": "Read every five minutes, 12–13 September 2026" }, { "label": "Polymarket Gamma API — esports events", "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events/keyset?closed=false&tag_slug=esports", "note": "Market list, start times and clearBookOnStart flag" }, { "label": "Kalshi public trade API — order books", "url": "https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/events?series_ticker=KXNFLGAME&with_nested_markets=true", "note": "NFL, college football, Premier League and MLB game markets" }, { "label": "Vultax: Kalshi–Polymarket arbitrage after fees", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/kalshi-polymarket-arbitrage-gaps-after-fees", "note": "Pre-game NFL gaps that never crossed" }, { "label": "Vultax: Polymarket copy trading costs", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-copy-trading-costs-and-tools", "note": "What a follower pays after a delay" }, { "label": "Vultax: Crypto wash trading and real liquidity", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/crypto-wash-trading-what-the-research-shows", "note": "Why depth, not volume, describes a market" }, { "label": "Polymarket data API — trades", "url": "https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades", "note": "Public trade records underlying Vultax's hourly flow record" }, { "label": "Vultax: Polymarket's up-or-down crypto markets", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets", "note": "Share of trades and money in the crypto format" } ], "measurement": { "kind": "observed", "temporalCoverage": "2026-08-21/2026-09-12", "population": "7,001 Polymarket sports and esports markets", "methodology": "Per market, each hashed wallet's summed notional from Vultax's hourly flow record; 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Before start on 12–13 September, a typical League of Legends book held $413 within 2 cents; an NFL game $523,000 on Polymarket and $1.74 million on Kalshi.", "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets", "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets#crowds", "publishedAt": "2026-09-06", "modifiedAt": "2026-09-16", "version": "e4d153c1f7e4c320c591e0318ee7a58ab3e3575aea2cd43b9c573a12090bfd0a", "isLive": false, "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Figures describe public market data at the stated read time and fills observed by Vultax's pipeline; they are not a statement about any market's fairness or any participant's identity. Nothing here is financial advice.", "downloads": { "json": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets/data.json?dataset=crowds-table", "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets/data.csv?dataset=crowds-table" } }, { "title": "Round-the-clock wallets on esports versus Fed markets, three days to 6 September 2026", "columns": [ { "name": "Category", "unit": null }, { "name": "LoL playoff markets", "unit": "%" }, { "name": "Fed contracts", "unit": "%" } ], "rows": [ [ "share of wallets", 7, 2.6 ], [ "share of trades", 24.6, 19.8 ], [ "share of notional", 13.1, 8.3 ] ], "measurementContext": "Six LPL and LCK playoff markets against the Fed contracts. Shares of wallets, trades and notional from the 2,080 wallets active in every UTC clock-hour between 22 August and 2 September 2026.", "sources": [ { "label": "Polymarket Gamma API: markets by 24 h volume", "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?order=volume24hr&ascending=false&limit=100", "note": "Read 2026-09-06 07:00 UTC" }, { "label": "Polymarket: League of Legends markets", "url": "https://polymarket.com/sports/league-of-legends/games/week/1", "note": "LPL and LCK playoff markets" }, { "label": "Vultax: Fed decision odds, scored", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/fed-september-decision-coin-flip-polymarket-kalshi", "note": "The comparison market" }, { "label": "Vultax: 1.6% of Polymarket wallets never sleep", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-wallets-that-never-sleep-trading-cadence", "note": "The round-the-clock cohort" }, { "label": "Wikipedia — 2026 League of Legends World Championship", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_League_of_Legends_World_Championship", "note": "15 October to 14 November 2026: play-in in Los Angeles, Swiss and knockout stages in Allen, Texas, final at Barclays Center, New York, on 14 November." }, { "label": "LoL Esports — MSI and Worlds updates", "url": "https://lolesports.com/en-US/news/msi-and-worlds-updates", "note": "Riot's own schedule; the live strip on this page reads the same schedule API that powers lolesports.com." }, { "label": "Pew Research Center — Trading volume on prediction markets has soared in recent months (27 May 2026)", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2026/05/27/trading-volume-on-prediction-markets-has-soared-in-recent-months/", "note": "Sports made up about 80% of Kalshi's volume and 39% of Polymarket's since July 2024." }, { "label": "CNBC — 2026 FIFA World Cup boosts prediction market volumes (4 Jul 2026)", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/04/2026-fifa-world-cup-boosts-prediction-market-volumes.html", "note": "June 2026: about $44.8 billion combined across Kalshi and Polymarket, Polymarket's record month at $10.8 billion." }, { "label": "The Crypto Basic — Kalshi, Polymarket August volume drops 14.5% in first monthly decline in a year (2 Sep 2026)", "url": "https://thecryptobasic.com/2026/09/02/kalshi-polymarket-august-volume-drops-14-5-in-first-monthly-decline-in-a-year/", "note": "August 2026 was the first monthly decline in a year after the World Cup; Polymarket's August volume about $8.2 billion, down about 37% from July." }, { "label": "CoinDesk — Polymarket's trading volume may be 25% fake, Columbia study finds", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/11/07/polymarket-s-trading-volume-may-be-25-fake-columbia-study-finds", "note": "Sports markets carried the highest flagged share (about 45% of historical volume); election markets about 17%." }, { "label": "ESPN — CFTC proposes rules limiting prediction markets: no injuries, no props", "url": "https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story/_/id/49019930/cftc-proposes-rules-limiting-prediction-markets-kalshi-sports", "note": "Proposed rules would bar event contracts on officiating outcomes and player injuries, with a 45-day comment period." }, { "label": "Polymarket CLOB — order books", "url": "https://clob.polymarket.com/books", "note": "Read every five minutes, 12–13 September 2026" }, { "label": "Polymarket Gamma API — esports events", "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events/keyset?closed=false&tag_slug=esports", "note": "Market list, start times and clearBookOnStart flag" }, { "label": "Kalshi public trade API — order books", "url": "https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/events?series_ticker=KXNFLGAME&with_nested_markets=true", "note": "NFL, college football, Premier League and MLB game markets" }, { "label": "Vultax: Kalshi–Polymarket arbitrage after fees", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/kalshi-polymarket-arbitrage-gaps-after-fees", "note": "Pre-game NFL gaps that never crossed" }, { "label": "Vultax: Polymarket copy trading costs", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-copy-trading-costs-and-tools", "note": "What a follower pays after a delay" }, { "label": "Vultax: Crypto wash trading and real liquidity", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/crypto-wash-trading-what-the-research-shows", "note": "Why depth, not volume, describes a market" }, { "label": "Polymarket data API — trades", "url": "https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades", "note": "Public trade records underlying Vultax's hourly flow record" }, { "label": "Vultax: Polymarket's up-or-down crypto markets", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets", "note": "Share of trades and money in the crypto format" } ], "measurement": { "kind": "observed", "temporalCoverage": null, "population": "1,796 wallets on six LPL and LCK playoff markets, and the Fed contracts, in the three days to 6 September 2026", "methodology": "Share of wallets, trades and notional from the 2,080 wallets active in all 24 UTC clock-hours between 22 August and 2 September 2026." }, "id": "crowds-chart", "kind": "published-chart", "description": "Of $727.0 million of Polymarket trading Vultax observed from 21 August to 12 September 2026, esports took 21.4%, peaking mid-morning UTC. Before start on 12–13 September, a typical League of Legends book held $413 within 2 cents; an NFL game $523,000 on Polymarket and $1.74 million on Kalshi.", "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets", "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets#crowds", "publishedAt": "2026-09-06", "modifiedAt": "2026-09-16", "version": "5237a3967050b31b7d8c4a3fef9d97feb51592dd8b372d52b438dad4d0c6b210", "isLive": false, "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Figures describe public market data at the stated read time and fills observed by Vultax's pipeline; they are not a statement about any market's fairness or any participant's identity. Nothing here is financial advice.", "downloads": { "json": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets/data.json?dataset=crowds-chart", "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets/data.csv?dataset=crowds-chart" } }, { "title": "6 September 2026: the day esports out-traded the Fed", "columns": [ { "name": "Market", "unit": null }, { "name": "Category", "unit": null }, { "name": "Notional", "unit": null }, { "name": "Fills", "unit": null }, { "name": "Wallets", "unit": null } ], "rows": [ [ "LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) – LPL Playoffs", "esports", "$1,121,262", "4,062", "1,122" ], [ "Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Vitality (BO3) – BLAST Open Porto Playoffs", "esports", "$1,100,915", "2,825", "1,176" ], [ "LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports – Game 3 Winner", "esports", "$1,068,842", "2,463", "807" ], [ "LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports – Game 4 Winner", "esports", "$995,391", "3,137", "805" ], [ "LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports – Game 2 Winner", "esports", "$990,191", "4,049", "898" ], [ "US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Learner Tien", "sports", "$945,812", "3,554", "948" ], [ "Will OGC Nice win on 2026-09-05?", "sports", "$920,071", "559", "272" ], [ "LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports – Game 4 Winner", "esports", "$873,657", "2,698", "744" ] ], "measurementContext": "Public on-chain fills observed by Vultax in the 24 hours to 07:00 UTC on 6 September 2026. Notional is size × price.", "sources": [ { "label": "Polymarket Gamma API: markets by 24 h volume", "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?order=volume24hr&ascending=false&limit=100", "note": "Read 2026-09-06 07:00 UTC" }, { "label": "Polymarket: League of Legends markets", "url": "https://polymarket.com/sports/league-of-legends/games/week/1", "note": "LPL and LCK playoff markets" }, { "label": "Vultax: Fed decision odds, scored", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/fed-september-decision-coin-flip-polymarket-kalshi", "note": "The comparison market" }, { "label": "Vultax: 1.6% of Polymarket wallets never sleep", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-wallets-that-never-sleep-trading-cadence", "note": "The round-the-clock cohort" }, { "label": "Wikipedia — 2026 League of Legends World Championship", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_League_of_Legends_World_Championship", "note": "15 October to 14 November 2026: play-in in Los Angeles, Swiss and knockout stages in Allen, Texas, final at Barclays Center, New York, on 14 November." }, { "label": "LoL Esports — MSI and Worlds updates", "url": "https://lolesports.com/en-US/news/msi-and-worlds-updates", "note": "Riot's own schedule; the live strip on this page reads the same schedule API that powers lolesports.com." }, { "label": "Pew Research Center — Trading volume on prediction markets has soared in recent months (27 May 2026)", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2026/05/27/trading-volume-on-prediction-markets-has-soared-in-recent-months/", "note": "Sports made up about 80% of Kalshi's volume and 39% of Polymarket's since July 2024." }, { "label": "CNBC — 2026 FIFA World Cup boosts prediction market volumes (4 Jul 2026)", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/04/2026-fifa-world-cup-boosts-prediction-market-volumes.html", "note": "June 2026: about $44.8 billion combined across Kalshi and Polymarket, Polymarket's record month at $10.8 billion." }, { "label": "The Crypto Basic — Kalshi, Polymarket August volume drops 14.5% in first monthly decline in a year (2 Sep 2026)", "url": "https://thecryptobasic.com/2026/09/02/kalshi-polymarket-august-volume-drops-14-5-in-first-monthly-decline-in-a-year/", "note": "August 2026 was the first monthly decline in a year after the World Cup; Polymarket's August volume about $8.2 billion, down about 37% from July." }, { "label": "CoinDesk — Polymarket's trading volume may be 25% fake, Columbia study finds", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/11/07/polymarket-s-trading-volume-may-be-25-fake-columbia-study-finds", "note": "Sports markets carried the highest flagged share (about 45% of historical volume); election markets about 17%." }, { "label": "ESPN — CFTC proposes rules limiting prediction markets: no injuries, no props", "url": "https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story/_/id/49019930/cftc-proposes-rules-limiting-prediction-markets-kalshi-sports", "note": "Proposed rules would bar event contracts on officiating outcomes and player injuries, with a 45-day comment period." }, { "label": "Polymarket CLOB — order books", "url": "https://clob.polymarket.com/books", "note": "Read every five minutes, 12–13 September 2026" }, { "label": "Polymarket Gamma API — esports events", "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events/keyset?closed=false&tag_slug=esports", "note": "Market list, start times and clearBookOnStart flag" }, { "label": "Kalshi public trade API — order books", "url": "https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/events?series_ticker=KXNFLGAME&with_nested_markets=true", "note": "NFL, college football, Premier League and MLB game markets" }, { "label": "Vultax: Kalshi–Polymarket arbitrage after fees", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/kalshi-polymarket-arbitrage-gaps-after-fees", "note": "Pre-game NFL gaps that never crossed" }, { "label": "Vultax: Polymarket copy trading costs", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-copy-trading-costs-and-tools", "note": "What a follower pays after a delay" }, { "label": "Vultax: Crypto wash trading and real liquidity", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/crypto-wash-trading-what-the-research-shows", "note": "Why depth, not volume, describes a market" }, { "label": "Polymarket data API — trades", "url": "https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades", "note": "Public trade records underlying Vultax's hourly flow record" }, { "label": "Vultax: Polymarket's up-or-down crypto markets", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets", "note": "Share of trades and money in the crypto format" } ], "measurement": { "kind": "observed", "temporalCoverage": "2026-09-05T07:00Z/2026-09-06T07:00Z", "population": "The eight largest markets by notional in Vultax's observed Polymarket fills", "methodology": "Public on-chain fills ingested by Vultax's pipeline in the 24 hours to 07:00 UTC on 6 September 2026; notional is size × price." }, "id": "esports-out-traded-the-fed-table", "kind": "published-table", "description": "Of $727.0 million of Polymarket trading Vultax observed from 21 August to 12 September 2026, esports took 21.4%, peaking mid-morning UTC. Before start on 12–13 September, a typical League of Legends book held $413 within 2 cents; an NFL game $523,000 on Polymarket and $1.74 million on Kalshi.", "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets", "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets#esports-out-traded-the-fed", "publishedAt": "2026-09-06", "modifiedAt": "2026-09-16", "version": "eb43d9579368e8cff0ab81761809c5afd24abfdc35a62da23392c85376d55ff7", "isLive": false, "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Figures describe public market data at the stated read time and fills observed by Vultax's pipeline; they are not a statement about any market's fairness or any participant's identity. Nothing here is financial advice.", "downloads": { "json": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets/data.json?dataset=esports-out-traded-the-fed-table", "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets/data.csv?dataset=esports-out-traded-the-fed-table" } }, { "title": "Share of 24-hour volume across Polymarket's 100 busiest markets, 6 September 2026", "columns": [ { "name": "Category", "unit": null }, { "name": "Share of 24 h volume", "unit": "%" } ], "rows": [ [ "esports", 21.4 ], [ "macro", 20.5 ], [ "sports", 19.8 ], [ "politics", 19.1 ], [ "other", 16.1 ], [ "crypto", 3.3 ] ], "measurementContext": "Polymarket's own volume figures, read 2026-09-06 07:00 UTC. Categories assigned from each market's question.", "sources": [ { "label": "Polymarket Gamma API: markets by 24 h volume", "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?order=volume24hr&ascending=false&limit=100", "note": "Read 2026-09-06 07:00 UTC" }, { "label": "Polymarket: League of Legends markets", "url": "https://polymarket.com/sports/league-of-legends/games/week/1", "note": "LPL and LCK playoff markets" }, { "label": "Vultax: Fed decision odds, scored", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/fed-september-decision-coin-flip-polymarket-kalshi", "note": "The comparison market" }, { "label": "Vultax: 1.6% of Polymarket wallets never sleep", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-wallets-that-never-sleep-trading-cadence", "note": "The round-the-clock cohort" }, { "label": "Wikipedia — 2026 League of Legends World Championship", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_League_of_Legends_World_Championship", "note": "15 October to 14 November 2026: play-in in Los Angeles, Swiss and knockout stages in Allen, Texas, final at Barclays Center, New York, on 14 November." }, { "label": "LoL Esports — MSI and Worlds updates", "url": "https://lolesports.com/en-US/news/msi-and-worlds-updates", "note": "Riot's own schedule; the live strip on this page reads the same schedule API that powers lolesports.com." }, { "label": "Pew Research Center — Trading volume on prediction markets has soared in recent months (27 May 2026)", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2026/05/27/trading-volume-on-prediction-markets-has-soared-in-recent-months/", "note": "Sports made up about 80% of Kalshi's volume and 39% of Polymarket's since July 2024." }, { "label": "CNBC — 2026 FIFA World Cup boosts prediction market volumes (4 Jul 2026)", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/04/2026-fifa-world-cup-boosts-prediction-market-volumes.html", "note": "June 2026: about $44.8 billion combined across Kalshi and Polymarket, Polymarket's record month at $10.8 billion." }, { "label": "The Crypto Basic — Kalshi, Polymarket August volume drops 14.5% in first monthly decline in a year (2 Sep 2026)", "url": "https://thecryptobasic.com/2026/09/02/kalshi-polymarket-august-volume-drops-14-5-in-first-monthly-decline-in-a-year/", "note": "August 2026 was the first monthly decline in a year after the World Cup; Polymarket's August volume about $8.2 billion, down about 37% from July." }, { "label": "CoinDesk — Polymarket's trading volume may be 25% fake, Columbia study finds", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/11/07/polymarket-s-trading-volume-may-be-25-fake-columbia-study-finds", "note": "Sports markets carried the highest flagged share (about 45% of historical volume); election markets about 17%." }, { "label": "ESPN — CFTC proposes rules limiting prediction markets: no injuries, no props", "url": "https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story/_/id/49019930/cftc-proposes-rules-limiting-prediction-markets-kalshi-sports", "note": "Proposed rules would bar event contracts on officiating outcomes and player injuries, with a 45-day comment period." }, { "label": "Polymarket CLOB — order books", "url": "https://clob.polymarket.com/books", "note": "Read every five minutes, 12–13 September 2026" }, { "label": "Polymarket Gamma API — esports events", "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events/keyset?closed=false&tag_slug=esports", "note": "Market list, start times and clearBookOnStart flag" }, { "label": "Kalshi public trade API — order books", "url": "https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/events?series_ticker=KXNFLGAME&with_nested_markets=true", "note": "NFL, college football, Premier League and MLB game markets" }, { "label": "Vultax: Kalshi–Polymarket arbitrage after fees", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/kalshi-polymarket-arbitrage-gaps-after-fees", "note": "Pre-game NFL gaps that never crossed" }, { "label": "Vultax: Polymarket copy trading costs", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-copy-trading-costs-and-tools", "note": "What a follower pays after a delay" }, { "label": "Vultax: Crypto wash trading and real liquidity", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/crypto-wash-trading-what-the-research-shows", "note": "Why depth, not volume, describes a market" }, { "label": "Polymarket data API — trades", "url": "https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades", "note": "Public trade records underlying Vultax's hourly flow record" }, { "label": "Vultax: Polymarket's up-or-down crypto markets", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets", "note": "Share of trades and money in the crypto format" } ], "measurement": { "kind": "observed", "temporalCoverage": "2026-09-05T07:00Z/2026-09-06T07:00Z", "population": "Polymarket's 100 busiest active markets by 24-hour volume", "methodology": "Polymarket's own 24-hour volume figures, read 2026-09-06 07:00 UTC; categories assigned from each market's question." }, "id": "esports-out-traded-the-fed-chart", "kind": "published-chart", "description": "Of $727.0 million of Polymarket trading Vultax observed from 21 August to 12 September 2026, esports took 21.4%, peaking mid-morning UTC. Before start on 12–13 September, a typical League of Legends book held $413 within 2 cents; an NFL game $523,000 on Polymarket and $1.74 million on Kalshi.", "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets", "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets#esports-out-traded-the-fed", "publishedAt": "2026-09-06", "modifiedAt": "2026-09-16", "version": "9d367586722003f22f7a8eb2721296e7d7f635521a63bc4a7d9d54b3b91b9cc6", "isLive": false, "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Figures describe public market data at the stated read time and fills observed by Vultax's pipeline; they are not a statement about any market's fairness or any participant's identity. Nothing here is financial advice.", "downloads": { "json": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets/data.json?dataset=esports-out-traded-the-fed-chart", "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets/data.csv?dataset=esports-out-traded-the-fed-chart" } } ] }