{ "schemaVersion": "vultax-public-research-data-v1", "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets", "datasets": [ { "title": "Round-the-clock wallets on esports versus Fed markets, three days to 6 September 2026", "columns": [ { "name": "Category", "unit": null }, { "name": "LoL playoff markets", "unit": "%" }, { "name": "Fed contracts", "unit": "%" } ], "rows": [ [ "share of wallets", 7, 2.6 ], [ "share of trades", 24.6, 19.8 ], [ "share of notional", 13.1, 8.3 ] ], "measurementContext": "Six LPL and LCK playoff markets against the Fed contracts. Shares of wallets, trades and notional from the 2,080 wallets active in every UTC clock-hour between 22 August and 2 September 2026.", "sources": [ { "label": "Polymarket Gamma API: markets by 24 h volume", "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?order=volume24hr&ascending=false&limit=100", "note": "Read 2026-09-06 07:00 UTC" }, { "label": "Polymarket: League of Legends markets", "url": "https://polymarket.com/sports/league-of-legends/games/week/1", "note": "LPL and LCK playoff markets" }, { "label": "Vultax: Fed decision odds, scored", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/fed-september-decision-coin-flip-polymarket-kalshi", "note": "The comparison market" }, { "label": "Vultax: 1.6% of Polymarket wallets never sleep", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-wallets-that-never-sleep-trading-cadence", "note": "The round-the-clock cohort" }, { "label": "Wikipedia — 2026 League of Legends World Championship", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_League_of_Legends_World_Championship", "note": "15 October to 14 November 2026: play-in in Los Angeles, Swiss and knockout stages in Allen, Texas, final at Barclays Center, New York, on 14 November." }, { "label": "LoL Esports — MSI and Worlds updates", "url": "https://lolesports.com/en-US/news/msi-and-worlds-updates", "note": "Riot's own schedule; the live strip on this page reads the same schedule API that powers lolesports.com." }, { "label": "Pew Research Center — Trading volume on prediction markets has soared in recent months (27 May 2026)", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2026/05/27/trading-volume-on-prediction-markets-has-soared-in-recent-months/", "note": "Sports made up about 80% of Kalshi's volume and 39% of Polymarket's since July 2024." }, { "label": "CNBC — 2026 FIFA World Cup boosts prediction market volumes (4 Jul 2026)", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/04/2026-fifa-world-cup-boosts-prediction-market-volumes.html", "note": "June 2026: about $44.8 billion combined across Kalshi and Polymarket, Polymarket's record month at $10.8 billion." }, { "label": "The Crypto Basic — Kalshi, Polymarket August volume drops 14.5% in first monthly decline in a year (2 Sep 2026)", "url": "https://thecryptobasic.com/2026/09/02/kalshi-polymarket-august-volume-drops-14-5-in-first-monthly-decline-in-a-year/", "note": "August 2026 was the first monthly decline in a year after the World Cup; Polymarket's August volume about $8.2 billion, down about 37% from July." }, { "label": "CoinDesk — Polymarket's trading volume may be 25% fake, Columbia study finds", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/11/07/polymarket-s-trading-volume-may-be-25-fake-columbia-study-finds", "note": "Sports markets carried the highest flagged share (about 45% of historical volume); election markets about 17%." }, { "label": "ESPN — CFTC proposes rules limiting prediction markets: no injuries, no props", "url": "https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story/_/id/49019930/cftc-proposes-rules-limiting-prediction-markets-kalshi-sports", "note": "Proposed rules would bar event contracts on officiating outcomes and player injuries, with a 45-day comment period." }, { "label": "Polymarket CLOB — order books", "url": "https://clob.polymarket.com/books", "note": "Read every five minutes, 12–13 September 2026" }, { "label": "Polymarket Gamma API — esports events", "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events/keyset?closed=false&tag_slug=esports", "note": "Market list, start times and clearBookOnStart flag" }, { "label": "Kalshi public trade API — order books", "url": "https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/events?series_ticker=KXNFLGAME&with_nested_markets=true", "note": "NFL, college football, Premier League and MLB game markets" }, { "label": "Vultax: Kalshi–Polymarket arbitrage after fees", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/kalshi-polymarket-arbitrage-gaps-after-fees", "note": "Pre-game NFL gaps that never crossed" }, { "label": "Vultax: Polymarket copy trading costs", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-copy-trading-costs-and-tools", "note": "What a follower pays after a delay" }, { "label": "Vultax: Crypto wash trading and real liquidity", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/crypto-wash-trading-what-the-research-shows", "note": "Why depth, not volume, describes a market" }, { "label": "Polymarket data API — trades", "url": "https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades", "note": "Public trade records underlying Vultax's hourly flow record" }, { "label": "Vultax: Polymarket's up-or-down crypto markets", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets", "note": "Share of trades and money in the crypto format" }, { "label": "Selected arithmetic checked in Lean 4.35.0", "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/research-proof-library-2026-10-25/articles/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets.md", "note": "Selected exact-rational calculations and displayed-value consistency checks, checked by Lean 4.35.0, Lean kernel replay and Nanoda. Not a proof of the underlying observations, statistical conclusions, legal claims or production code." }, { "label": "Per-article scope records and Lean package", "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/research-proof-library-2026-10-25/README.md", "note": "Dated per-article scope records, Lean source, frozen permitted public inputs, checker logs and a reproducible ZIP. Covers only the scope stated in each record, not the whole study." } ], "measurement": { "kind": "observed", "temporalCoverage": null, "population": "1,796 wallets on six LPL and LCK playoff markets, and the Fed contracts, in the three days to 6 September 2026", "methodology": "Share of wallets, trades and notional from the 2,080 wallets active in all 24 UTC clock-hours between 22 August and 2 September 2026." }, "id": "crowds-chart", "kind": "published-chart", "description": "Of $727.0 million of Polymarket trading Vultax observed from 21 August to 12 September 2026, esports took 21.4%, peaking mid-morning UTC. Before start on 12–13 September, a typical League of Legends book held $413 within 2 cents; an NFL game $523,000 on Polymarket and $1.74 million on Kalshi.", "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets", "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets#crowds", "publishedAt": "2026-09-06", "modifiedAt": "2026-10-25", "version": "8091a658ebeeec51eaaaa676ba702ef6340150b01242032a4fdd72a3cafd84b3", "isLive": false, "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Figures describe public market data at the stated read time and fills observed by Vultax's pipeline; they are not a statement about any market's fairness or any participant's identity. Nothing here is financial advice.", "downloads": { "json": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets/data.json?dataset=crowds-chart", "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets/data.csv?dataset=crowds-chart" } } ] }