{ "schemaVersion": "vultax-public-research-data-v1", "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-market-legality/united-states", "datasets": [ { "title": "Three products, three legal footings", "columns": [ { "name": "Product", "unit": null }, { "name": "Federal footing", "unit": null }, { "name": "What it says about states", "unit": null } ], "rows": [ [ "Kalshi event contracts", "KalshiEX LLC, a CFTC-designated contract market", "Its member agreement lists restricted countries and names no US state; limits within the US come from court orders, not from the agreement" ], [ "Polymarket US", "QCX LLC, a CFTC-designated contract market, with the app run by QC Tech", "The app terms name no excluded state; the App Store listing says \"in all 50 states\" with the footnote \"Trading currently unavailable in NV\"" ], [ "polymarket.com (international)", "Operated by Blockratize, Inc.; fined by the CFTC in January 2022 for offering event contracts without registration", "Close-only for the whole United States in the developer documentation; completely restricted in the help page" ] ], "measurementContext": "Read 30 October 2026 from the venues' own documents and the App Store listing. A venue's description of where it operates is not a legal finding.", "sources": [ { "label": "Vultax: Prediction market lawsuit tracker", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-market-lawsuit-tracker", "note": "Every case Vultax follows, each checked against the court record" }, { "label": "Vultax: Is Polymarket legal in the US?", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/is-polymarket-legal-in-the-us-2026", "note": null }, { "label": "Kalshi: Member Agreement, Section VI, version of 1 Oct 2026 (read 30 Oct 2026)", "url": "https://kalshi-public-docs.s3.amazonaws.com/regulatory/agreement/kalshi_member_agreement.pdf", "note": "Kalshi's public regulatory copy; 55 places where trading event contracts is restricted, a list last changed on 22 June 2026. The venue's own policy, not a finding about local law" }, { "label": "Polymarket US: app terms of service, effective 23 Oct 2026", "url": "https://polymarket.us/tos", "note": "QC Tech's app, separate from the QCX exchange and QC Clearing; section 3 sets age, eligibility and identity checks" }, { "label": "Polymarket Exchange (QCX): rulebook dated 30 Sep 2026", "url": "https://polymarketexchange.com/files/legal/latest/rulebook", "note": "84 pages; rule 3.1 sets participant eligibility" }, { "label": "Apple App Store: Polymarket US app listing (read 30 Oct 2026)", "url": "https://apps.apple.com/us/app/polymarket-trade-live-sports/id6648798962", "note": "Says \"in all 50 states*\" with the footnote \"Trading currently unavailable in NV\"; the Google Play listing has no Nevada note" }, { "label": "Polymarket documentation: geographic restrictions (read 30 Oct 2026)", "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/api-reference/geoblock", "note": "Blocked, close-only and website-only close-only lists for polymarket.com; does not cover Polymarket US" }, { "label": "Polymarket Help Center: geographic restrictions (read 30 Oct 2026)", "url": "https://help.polymarket.com/en/articles/13364163-geographic-restrictions", "note": "Updated 29 Oct 2026; headed 40 countries completely restricted but listing 41 codes, and differs from the developer documentation" }, { "label": "Michigan Gaming Control Board: Polymarket backs down in Michigan (28 Oct 2026)", "url": "https://www.michigan.gov/mgcb/news/2026/10/28/polymarket-backs-down-in-michigan", "note": "Polymarket US agreed to stop new sports-related contracts for Michigan customers and close open positions by 25 November 2026; a stipulation approved in the Western District of Michigan, with the Sixth Circuit appeal pending" }, { "label": "CFTC: release 9315-26, suit over Utah's enforcement against CFTC-registered markets (27 Oct 2026)", "url": "https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9315-26", "note": null }, { "label": "CFTC: interim final rule excluding casino-style gambling, 91 FR 65969 (19 Oct 2026)", "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2026-10-19/html/2026-21376.htm", "note": "RIN 3038-AF81; in effect from 19 October 2026 (release 9309-26); comments close 18 November" }, { "label": "CFTC: proposed rule on event contracts, 91 FR 66022 (Federal Register, 19 Oct 2026)", "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2026-10-19/pdf/2026-21377.pdf", "note": "RIN 3038-AF82; announced 9 October (release 9310-26); a proposal, comments close 18 November 2026" }, { "label": "Supreme Court docket 26-299, Flaherty v. KalshiEX (read 30 Oct 2026)", "url": "https://www.supremecourt.gov/docket/docketfiles/html/public/26-299.html", "note": "Response due 9 November 2026; on 29 October Kalshi asked, unopposed, to move it to 7 December" }, { "label": "Supreme Court docket 26-338, Robinhood Derivatives v. Dreitzer (read 30 Oct 2026)", "url": "https://www.supremecourt.gov/docket/docketfiles/html/public/26-338.html", "note": "Response due 13 November 2026" }, { "label": "Supreme Court docket 26-344, North American Derivatives Exchange (Crypto.com) v. Nevada (read 30 Oct 2026)", "url": "https://www.supremecourt.gov/docket/docketfiles/html/public/26-344.html", "note": "Response due 16 November 2026" }, { "label": "Kalshi's request to extend the time to respond in No. 26-299 (letter of 29 Oct 2026)", "url": "https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/26/26-299/431233/20261029183513514_2026-10-29%20Flaherty%20v%20KalshiEX%20LLC%20Extension%20Request.pdf", "note": "Asks to move the brief in opposition from 9 November to 7 December 2026; not yet granted when read on 30 October" } ], "measurement": { "kind": null, "temporalCoverage": null, "population": null, "methodology": null }, "id": "three-products-table", "kind": "published-table", "description": "Every US state and DC, with the court rulings, lawsuits and regulator letters aimed at Kalshi and at Polymarket US, kept apart. A blank record is not permission, and polymarket.com stays closed to new US trades.", "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-market-legality/united-states", "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-market-legality/united-states#three-products", "publishedAt": "2026-10-30", "modifiedAt": "2026-10-30", "version": "b13997ece36b485ad1d7a0aac00008c9fedf9a970f28c5e8e4910d0d6756af61", "isLive": false, "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Describes court decisions, lawsuits, regulator letters and venue documents as recorded on 30 October 2026. Complaints are allegations, most rulings are on preliminary relief, and a state with no recorded action is not a state where any contract is lawful. Nothing here is legal or financial advice.", "downloads": { "json": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-market-legality/united-states/data.json?dataset=three-products-table", "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-market-legality/united-states/data.csv?dataset=three-products-table" } } ] }