{
  "schemaVersion": "vultax-public-research-data-v1",
  "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-market-timestamps-contract-matching",
  "datasets": [
    {
      "title": "The Fed example fails a naive one-to-one match",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Assumed starting bound",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Resulting bound",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "25 bp cut?",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "No above 3.75%?",
          "unit": null
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "4.00%",
          "3.50%",
          "No",
          "Yes"
        ],
        [
          "4.00%",
          "3.75%",
          "Yes",
          "Yes"
        ],
        [
          "4.00%",
          "4.00%",
          "No",
          "No"
        ],
        [
          "4.00%",
          "4.25%",
          "No",
          "No"
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Illustrative truth table. The assumed starting bound is not an observed current rate. No trade or arbitrage recommendation.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Polymarket October Fed outcome",
          "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?condition_ids=0x9cf563d7b55aa9aa876d5d7e55126347eee473f0ae56d799e325fdef2bf25297",
          "note": "Rules and exact condition ID retrieved 19 September 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "Kalshi October 3.75% threshold",
          "url": "https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets/KXFED-26OCT-T3.75",
          "note": "Rules and exact ticker retrieved 19 September 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "Kalshi October 4.00% threshold",
          "url": "https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets/KXFED-26OCT-T4.00",
          "note": "Second threshold retained in the fixture."
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "illustrative",
        "temporalCoverage": "",
        "population": "Four hypothetical rate decisions with an assumed pre-meeting upper bound of 4.00%",
        "methodology": "Truth-table fixture; assumed baseline is not a statement of the current Federal Reserve rate."
      },
      "id": "contracts-table",
      "kind": "published-table",
      "description": "All 295 sampled shared-family cycles were within five seconds, but only 100 within one second. Matching timestamps still does not make rate-change and rate-level contracts equivalent.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-market-timestamps-contract-matching",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-market-timestamps-contract-matching#contracts",
      "publishedAt": "2026-09-20",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-09-20",
      "version": "0b012c897444a77727dd0667ae71a872361fc7db1d3b766f7c0c02ca5f5a6b48",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Own-collector timing diagnostic on selected hourly observations. Shared labels are not equivalent outcomes. Rate examples are illustrative, not current policy rates. No latency ranking or arbitrage return is established.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-market-timestamps-contract-matching/data.json?dataset=contracts-table",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-market-timestamps-contract-matching/data.csv?dataset=contracts-table"
      }
    }
  ]
}