{
  "schemaVersion": "vultax-public-research-data-v1",
  "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-market-timestamps-contract-matching",
  "datasets": [
    {
      "title": "The tolerance is part of the result",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Maximum response span",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Passing observations",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Total",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Share",
          "unit": null
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "1 seconds",
          "100",
          "295",
          "33.9%"
        ],
        [
          "5 seconds",
          "295",
          "295",
          "100.0%"
        ],
        [
          "10 seconds",
          "295",
          "295",
          "100.0%"
        ],
        [
          "30 seconds",
          "295",
          "295",
          "100.0%"
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "This is a family-level collection diagnostic. It does not pair equivalent outcomes or establish simultaneously executable prices.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Polymarket October Fed outcome",
          "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?condition_ids=0x9cf563d7b55aa9aa876d5d7e55126347eee473f0ae56d799e325fdef2bf25297",
          "note": "Rules and exact condition ID retrieved 19 September 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "Kalshi October 3.75% threshold",
          "url": "https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets/KXFED-26OCT-T3.75",
          "note": "Rules and exact ticker retrieved 19 September 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "Kalshi October 4.00% threshold",
          "url": "https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets/KXFED-26OCT-T4.00",
          "note": "Second threshold retained in the fixture."
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2026-09-17/2026-09-18",
        "population": "295 shared-family cycles from 48 hourly samples; selected Polymarket and Kalshi watchlists",
        "methodology": "Response timestamp spans within collection cycle and family; family labels are not equivalent contracts."
      },
      "id": "timing-table",
      "kind": "published-table",
      "description": "All 295 sampled shared-family cycles were within five seconds, but only 100 within one second. Matching timestamps still does not make rate-change and rate-level contracts equivalent.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-market-timestamps-contract-matching",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-market-timestamps-contract-matching#timing",
      "publishedAt": "2026-09-20",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-09-20",
      "version": "d4492cabe74f7a16a0240a717c438a9f06d0bb1b7815c1389d2870519e34b126",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Own-collector timing diagnostic on selected hourly observations. Shared labels are not equivalent outcomes. Rate examples are illustrative, not current policy rates. No latency ranking or arbitrage return is established.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-market-timestamps-contract-matching/data.json?dataset=timing-table",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-market-timestamps-contract-matching/data.csv?dataset=timing-table"
      }
    }
  ]
}