# Prediction Markets in Europe: Sixteen Blocking Orders, and Only Three Are Measured

Every European regulator's action on Polymarket and Kalshi, dated and sourced: 22 jurisdictions, sixteen blocking orders, one penalty, one licensing regime. Eleven of the sixteen blocks are not applied by Polymarket itself, and only France, Spain and Switzerland have network tests.

Canonical URL: https://vultax.com/research/prediction-markets-europe-regulation-tracker
Author: [Vultax Research](https://vultax.com/editorial-policy)
Published: 2026-10-19
Last public revision: 2026-10-19

Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. A dated record of public documents and press reports, read to 19 October 2026, with the regulators' own written answers to Vultax where they exist. Rows marked reported rest on press coverage. Network measurements are OONI volunteers' tests and show interference, not a legal status. Nothing here is legal advice.

## Key figures

- European jurisdictions with a public action on record: 22 — Plus ESMA at EU level; actions dated from November 2024 to 19 October 2026
- Blocking orders or blacklistings: 16 — Latvia, Switzerland, Poland, Belgium, Romania, Greece, Ukraine, Portugal, Hungary, Cyprus, Spain, Denmark, Italy, Czechia, France, Lithuania
- Blocks that Polymarket does not apply itself: 11 — Spain, Portugal, Hungary, Czechia, Lithuania, Romania, Switzerland, Cyprus, Greece, Latvia and Denmark are absent from Polymarket's own restrictions page, read 19 October 2026
- polymarket.com tests in France that were anomalous or failed: 82% — 385 of 472 OONI web tests, 21 July to 19 October 2026; Spain 48%, Switzerland 15%; no tests exist from the other thirteen blocking countries

<a id="next"></a>
## What comes next

Spain's regulator has until about 26 November 2026 to decide the sanction case it opened on 26 May; on 1 October it [told Vultax it could not say whether it had ruled](https://vultax.com/market-updates/polymarket-kalshi-spain-sanction-decision). In Italy the administrative court in Rome refused on 5 August to suspend the block and still has to decide the merits. In the Netherlands, Polymarket has taken the 420,000 euro penalty to court, and in Denmark its appeal against the court-ordered block is pending. Czech internet providers have had to [block kalshi.com since 15 October](https://vultax.com/market-updates/kalshi-blocked-in-czech-republic). Lithuania's authority is [reviewing other prediction-market sites](https://vultax.com/market-updates/polymarket-blocked-in-lithuania). In Gibraltar, the register now lists two authorised operators. In Britain, the FCA is talking to the operators and has changed no rule.

Dates from the regulators' own notices and from the court reports cited below, read 19 October 2026.

| Date | Where | What is due |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 15 Oct 2026 | Czechia, Ministry of Finance | Internet providers must block kalshi.com from this day; polymarket.com has been listed since 13 July |
| About 26 Nov 2026 | Spain, DGOJ | Six-month limit on the sanction case opened on 26 May; a fine of 1 to 50 million euros is possible under article 42.3 of the Gambling Act |
| Pending | Italy, TAR Lazio | Decision on the merits of Polymarket's appeal against the ADM block; the urgent appeal was refused on 5 August |
| Pending | Netherlands, court | Polymarket's challenge to the Kansspelautoriteit's 420,000 euro penalty, forfeited after the 17 February deadline |
| Pending | Denmark, appeal | Polymarket's appeal against the Frederiksberg court's blocking order; on 6 October the Danish Gambling Authority said a remand had been claimed and the appeal was still pending |
| 1 Jan 2027 | Finland | The new licensing regime opens; no Finnish action on prediction markets has been found |

[CSV](https://vultax.com/research/prediction-markets-europe-regulation-tracker/data.csv?dataset=next-table), [JSON](https://vultax.com/research/prediction-markets-europe-regulation-tracker/data.json?dataset=next-table)

<a id="the-record"></a>
## The record, latest first

Each row is one public action by a European authority: a block, a penalty, a warning, a licence, a statement or a written answer to Vultax. The source column links the authority's own document where Vultax has read it; where only press reports exist, the row says so. Platform geoblocking decided by Polymarket itself is not an action by a regulator and is listed separately below.

Rows marked reported rest on press coverage until the authority's document is read. Register entries without a published date carry the date by which Vultax saw them.

| Date | Authority | Action | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| By 19 Oct 2026 | Gibraltar, Licensing Authority | Register of authorised operators under regulation 10 lists Predict Street Limited, PMA01, and Wire Alternative Markets Limited, PMA02; the register publishes no dates | [Gambling Division, register](https://gamblingdivision.gov.gi/prediction-market-authorisations) |
| 17 Oct 2026 | Malta, Malta Gaming Authority | Told Vultax it sees significant interest and that some prediction-market products may fit existing betting licences; declined to discuss individual applications | [Vultax, 17 Oct 2026](https://vultax.com/market-updates/malta-mga-prediction-markets-significant-interest) |
| 15 Oct 2026 | Malta, Malta Gaming Authority | Extended Hacksaw Group's B2B critical gaming supply licence to Type 3 gaming services for a peer-to-peer prediction-markets platform, per Hacksaw's own announcement | [Hacksaw Group release, 15 Oct 2026](https://mfn.se/a/hacksaw/hacksaw-group-launches-b2b-prediction-markets-platform-expanding-technology-and-distribution-ecosystem) |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Latvia, State Revenue Service | Told Vultax that polymarket.com was blocked by a decision of the Lotteries and Gambling Supervisory Inspection of 25 November 2024, that Polymarket's operator Adventure One QSS is not subject to payment blocking, that the supervisor has not asked the operator to restrict Latvian users, and that the decision was not appealed; the answer did not cover Kalshi's entries | Vultax, 22 Oct 2026; [State Revenue Service, blocked operators and websites](https://www.vid.gov.lv/lv/bloketie-komersanti) |
| 7 Oct 2026 | Germany, GGL | Confirmed to Vultax that administrative proceedings are open against Polymarket and Kalshi, both responded, geoblocking is in place, and no internet-provider block was requested | [Vultax, 7 Oct 2026](https://vultax.com/market-updates/polymarket-kalshi-germany-ggl-proceedings) |
| 6 Oct 2026 | United Kingdom, FCA | Markets executive director Simon Walls said the FCA is engaging with operators on their UK plans; the retail ban on binary options is unchanged | [The Paypers, reporting the FCA](https://thepaypers.com/crypto-web3-and-cbdc/news/fca-reportedly-confirms-talks-as-prediction-markets-push-back-on-gambling-label) |
| 6 Oct 2026 | Ireland, GRAI | Told Vultax that two major prediction-market operators geoblocked Ireland earlier this year after its interventions, that prediction markets offering betting count as remote betting intermediaries and have needed a GRAI licence since 1 July 2026, and that legal action can include High Court blocking orders aimed at internet providers, app stores and payments | Written answer to Vultax, 6 Oct 2026, attributed to a GRAI spokesperson and quoted below; [GRAI, business-to-consumer licences](https://www.grai.ie/licensing-regulation/business-to-consumer-licenses) |
| 6 Oct 2026 | Denmark, Danish Gambling Authority | Asked about Polymarket's appeal against the blocking order, told Vultax only that a remand had been claimed and the appeal was still pending | Written answer to Vultax, 6 Oct 2026, quoted below |
| 1 Oct 2026 | Spain, DGOJ | Told Vultax it cannot say whether it has ruled in the sanction case against Polymarket and Kalshi | [Vultax, 2 Oct 2026](https://vultax.com/market-updates/polymarket-kalshi-spain-sanction-decision) |
| 30 Sep 2026 | Lithuania, Gaming Control Authority | Told Vultax that Polymarket's operator had neither responded nor appealed, and that other prediction-market sites are under evaluation | [Vultax, 30 Sep 2026](https://vultax.com/market-updates/polymarket-blocked-in-lithuania) |
| 30 Sep 2026 | Czechia, Ministry of Finance | Entered kalshi.com on the List of Unauthorised Internet Games; providers must block it within fifteen days | [Ministry of Finance list, PDF](https://mf.gov.cz/assets/attachments/Zverejnovane-udaje-ze-Seznamu-nepovolenych-internetovych-her_v210.pdf) |
| 10 Sep 2026 | EU, ESMA | Risk report with a chapter on prediction markets: the largest platforms hold no EU authorisation, insider trading is a risk, and the platforms restrict some EU countries but not others | [ESMA TRV Risk Monitor No. 2, 2026](https://www.esma.europa.eu/sites/default/files/2026-09/ESMA50-1949966494-4282_TRV_Risk_Monitor_2_2026.pdf) |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Lithuania, Gaming Control Authority | Announced the block of polymarket.com after a Regional Administrative Court ruling of 24 August; entry 2,204 on the list of illegal operators | [Gaming Control Authority notice](https://lpt.lrv.lt/lt/naujienos/po-lpt-tyrimo-uzblokuota-prieiga-prie-polymarket-svetaines-Jno/) |
| 13 Aug 2026 | Gibraltar, Government | Prediction Market (Fees and Duties) Regulations 2026, LN.2026/316, in operation: 30,000 pounds to apply, 100,000 pounds a year, and a general prediction market duty of 0.15 percent of commission charged | [Gibraltar Laws, LN.2026/316](https://www.gibraltarlaws.gov.gi/uploads/legislations/gambling/2026s316/2026s316.pdf) |
| 5 Aug 2026 | Italy, TAR Lazio | Refused Polymarket's urgent application to suspend the block; the site stays inaccessible pending the merits | [Sky TG24](https://tg24.sky.it/economia/2026/08/05/polymarket-italia-chiuso-ricorso-respinto) |
| 16 Jul 2026 | France, ANJ | The ANJ president ordered internet providers to block polymarket.com; the communiqué of 17 July cites a Paris prosecutor's investigation opened on 4 May into manipulated weather bets and the absence of identity checks; Polymarket said on 23 July it would challenge | [ANJ communiqué, 17 Jul 2026](https://anj.fr/promotion-dune-offre-de-jeux-dargent-illegale-blocage-du-site-polymarket); [CoinDesk, 23 Jul 2026](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/07/23/polymarket-to-challenge-france-s-nationwide-website-block) |
| 13 Jul 2026 | Gibraltar, Government | Prediction Market Regulations 2026, LN.2026/176, in force: an authorisation regime with a public register, separate from a gambling licence; two operators reported on the register | [Gibraltar Laws, LN.2026/176](https://www.gibraltarlaws.gov.gi/uploads/legislations/gambling/2026s176/2026s176.pdf) |
| 13 Jul 2026 | Czechia, Ministry of Finance | Entered polymarket.com on the List of Unauthorised Internet Games; the first providers were blocking it by 16 July | [Ministry of Finance, blocking page](https://mf.gov.cz/cs/kontrola-a-regulace/hazardni-hry/blokace-nepovolenych-internetovych-her); [Lupa.cz](https://www.lupa.cz/aktuality/cesko-zakazalo-popularni-polymarket-sazkarsky-web-uz-blokuji-prvni-poskytovatele-internetu/) |
| 10 Jul 2026 | Italy, ADM | Decision 427985 ordered 293 more sites blocked by 27 July 2026, polymarket.com among them; the domain is number 3934 on the list read 19 October | [ADM, decision of 10 Jul 2026](https://www.adm.gov.it/portale/documents/20182/128370228/Nota427985RU_Fri+Jul+10+020000+CEST+2026.pdf); [ADM list of blocked sites](https://www.adm.gov.it/portale/documents/20182/109453590/elenco_siti_inibiti.pdf) |
| 8 Jul 2026 | Denmark, court at Frederiksberg | Ruled for the Danish Gambling Authority and ordered internet providers to block 98 gambling sites; polymarket.com is number 97 on the authority's published list; the authority announced the ruling on 19 August | [Danish Gambling Authority, 19 Aug 2026](https://spillemyndigheden.dk/en-us/news-articles/the-danish-gambling-authority-blocks-98-illegal-gambling-sites); [list of blocked websites, July 2026](https://spillemyndigheden.dk/media/ettbgi33/websites-blocked-july-2026.pdf) |
| 3 Jul 2026 | EU, ESMA | Public statement: an event contract that is a financial instrument is a derivative, falls under the national bans on selling binary options to retail clients, and may be distributed only by an authorised investment firm | [ESMA public statement, PDF](https://www.esma.europa.eu/sites/default/files/2026-07/ESMA35-243228190-8148_Public_Statement_on_the_application_of_the_national_product_intervention_measures_on_binary_options_to_event_contracts.pdf) |
| 23 Jun 2026 | Netherlands, Kansspelautoriteit | Rejected Polymarket's objection; the order under penalty and the 420,000 euro penalty stand; published 8 July; an appeal lies to the district court | [Kansspelautoriteit, decision on objection, 23 Jun 2026](https://kansspelautoriteit.nl/sites/default/files/2026-07/2026-06-23_24971_beslissing%20op%20bezwaar%20Adventure%20One%20QSS%20Inc._sanctiebesluit.pdf) |
| 17 Jun 2026 | Switzerland, Gespa | Media release joining the joint statement: prediction markets are gambling under Swiss law, providers from abroad without authorisation act illegally and access to their websites is blocked | [Gespa, 17 Jun 2026](https://www.gespa.ch/download/pictures/33/vqqy606j9ss18bv1iw621p37i8ept9/26-06-17_medienmitteilung_prognosemaerkte_en.pdf) |
| 17 Jun 2026 | Nine regulators: Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland | Joint statement at the opening of the World Cup warning about unlicensed prediction markets and pledging enforcement; the GGL told Vultax on 7 October that no joint measures had followed yet | [EGR](https://www.egr.global/intel/news/european-regulators-join-forces-and-threaten-action-against-prediction-markets/); [Gaming Tech Law](https://www.gamingtechlaw.com/2026/06/prediction-markets-in-europe/) |
| 26 May 2026 | Spain, DGOJ | Opened sanction proceedings against Polymarket and Kalshi and ordered internet providers to block both sites as a precaution, notified in the official gazette | [Vultax, 2 Oct 2026](https://vultax.com/market-updates/polymarket-kalshi-spain-sanction-decision) |
| 19 May 2026 | Netherlands, Kansspelautoriteit | Collection decision: the 420,000 euros forfeited after the 17 February deadline are to be collected; published 16 June | [Kansspelautoriteit, case page](https://kansspelautoriteit.nl/adventure-one-qss-inc-polymarket) |
| 9 Apr 2026 | Greece, Hellenic Gaming Commission | Decision 11131 entered kalshi.com on the blacklist in its 50th edition; predictit.org followed in the 52nd edition by decision 18780 of 12 June 2026 | [Hellenic Gaming Commission, blacklist, 53rd edition](https://hgc.gov.gr/%ce%ba%ce%bf%ce%b9%ce%bd%cf%8c-%ce%ba%ce%b1%ce%b9-%cf%80%ce%b1%ce%af%ce%ba%cf%84%ce%b5%cf%82/blacklist/) |
| 1 Apr 2026 | Romania, court | Refused to suspend the ONJN blacklisting of Polymarket while the case continues | [SiGMA, 6 Apr 2026](https://sigma.world/news/romanian-court-keeps-polymarket-onjn-blacklist/); reported, court document not read |
| 26 Mar 2026 | Gibraltar, Licensing Authority | Predict Street Ltd licensed as a betting intermediary under the 2005 Act, reported from the licence register as the first prediction-market licence in Europe | [iGaming Business, 1 Apr 2026](https://igamingbusiness.com/prediction-markets/gibraltar-licenses-first-prediction-market-operator/); reported, licence document not read |
| Feb 2026 | United Kingdom, Gambling Commission | Said prediction-market businesses could require a betting intermediary licence, since trading positions on event outcomes can resemble a betting exchange | [The Paypers](https://thepaypers.com/crypto-web3-and-cbdc/news/fca-reportedly-confirms-talks-as-prediction-markets-push-back-on-gambling-label); the Commission's text not read |
| 24 Feb 2026 | France, ANJ | Statement that prediction-market platforms are illegal in France and carry the risks of unlicensed gambling; names Polymarket and Kalshi, both geoblocked at the ANJ's request, and lists ten countries that have blocked Polymarket, Greece and Cyprus among them | [ANJ, 24 Feb 2026](https://anj.fr/plateformes-de-marches-de-prediction-des-sites-illegaux-en-france-qui-peuvent-presenter-des-risques) |
| By 24 Feb 2026 | Cyprus, National Betting Authority | polymarket.com and kalshi.com on the blocking list that internet providers must apply under article 69 of the Betting Law of 2019; absent from an archived copy of 17 September 2025, present when read on 19 October 2026; the French ANJ named Cyprus as a blocking country on 24 February 2026 | [National Betting Authority, blocking list](https://nba.gov.cy/wp-content/uploads/BlockingListLatest.txt); [archived copy, 17 Sep 2025](http://web.archive.org/web/20250917175440/https://nba.gov.cy/wp-content/uploads/BlockingListLatest.txt) |
| 18 Feb 2026 | Netherlands, Kansspelautoriteit | Found Polymarket still accessible the day after the 17 February deadline of its order under penalty; 420,000 euros forfeited, with 840,000 the maximum | [NOS](https://nos.nl/l/2602855); [Gambling Insider NL](https://www.gamblinginsider.com/nl/nieuws/104336/polymarket-krijgt-e420-000-boete-van-de-kansspelautoriteit-in-juni) |
| 13 Feb 2026 | Romania, ONJN | Decision 76 entered kalshi.com on the blacklist, number 4 in annex 1, on inspection report 7675 of 11 February | [ONJN, decision 76 and annexes](https://onjn.gov.ro/decizia-nr-76-din-13-02-2026/) |
| 20 Jan 2026 | Netherlands, Kansspelautoriteit | Order under penalty on Adventure One QSS Inc., decision 22310/01.370.802: stop giving the opportunity to gamble through polymarket.com within four weeks or forfeit 420,000 euros per week up to 840,000 euros; published 17 February | [Kansspelautoriteit, decision of 20 Jan 2026](https://kansspelautoriteit.nl/sites/default/files/2026-02/2026-01-20_22310_LOD%20Adventure%20One%20SQQ%20Inc._sanctiebesluit.pdf) |
| By 18 Jan 2026 | Italy, ADM | kalshi.com on the list of blocked gambling sites in an archived copy dated 18 January 2026; the decision that added it has not been read | [ADM list, archived copy](http://web.archive.org/web/20260118041158/https://www.adm.gov.it/portale/documents/20182/114059352/elenco_siti_inibiti_giochi.txt) |
| 16 Jan 2026 | Portugal, SRIJ | Ban: Polymarket is not authorised to offer betting in Portugal, and betting on political events is not permitted under national law | [Decrypt via Yahoo](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/polymarket-banned-portugal-hungary-prediction-175111303.html); the regulator's notice not read |
| 16 Jan 2026 | Hungary, SZTFH | Temporary order requiring internet providers to block polymarket.com and its subdomains | [Lexology, CMS note](https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=314ca58f-8ef0-4608-9173-8ea5dddc1196) |
| 22 Dec 2025 | Latvia, Lotteries and Gambling Supervisory Inspection | Decision 3985-Blok put KalshiEX LLC and Kalshi Klear LLC on the list of unlicensed operators that credit and payment institutions may not work with; kalshi.com and www.kalshi.com are also on the blocked-domain list, which publishes no entry dates | [State Revenue Service, payment-blocking list](https://www.vid.gov.lv/lv/media/33851/download?attachment=); [blocked-domain list](https://www.vid.gov.lv/lv/media/33860/download?attachment=) |
| 10 Dec 2025 | Ukraine, National Commission for the Regulation of Electronic Communications | Resolution 695 added polymarket.com to the register of blocked websites | [Decrypt via Yahoo](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-blocks-polymarket-over-war-163335690.html); resolution not read |
| 25 Nov 2025 | Switzerland, Gespa | kalshi.com added to the blocking list; four Swiss-branded Polymarket domains followed on 25 August 2026 | [Gespa blocking list, 25 Aug 2026](https://blocklist.gespa.ch/comlot_blacklist.pdf) |
| 21 Nov 2025 | Greece, Hellenic Gaming Commission | Decision 32917 entered polymarket.com, operator Adventure One QSS, on the blacklist of unlicensed providers in its 47th edition; internet providers must deny access under article 48 of Law 4002/2011 | [Hellenic Gaming Commission, blacklist, 53rd edition](https://hgc.gov.gr/%ce%ba%ce%bf%ce%b9%ce%bd%cf%8c-%ce%ba%ce%b1%ce%b9-%cf%80%ce%b1%ce%af%ce%ba%cf%84%ce%b5%cf%82/blacklist/); [the list as a spreadsheet](https://hgc.gov.gr/wp-content/uploads/blacklist.xlsx) |
| 29 Oct 2025 | Romania, ONJN | Decision 883 of the Supervisory Committee entered polymarket.com on the blacklist, number 19 in annex 1, on inspection report 75.111 of 24 October; providers must block access | [ONJN, decision 883 and annexes](https://onjn.gov.ro/decizia-nr-883-din-29-10-2025/) |
| 5 Sep 2025 | Germany, GGL | Public warning naming Polymarket: paid bets on social and political events cannot be licensed in Germany | [GGL warning](https://www.gluecksspiel-behoerde.de/de/news/ggl-warnt-vor-teilnahme-an-illegalen-gesellschaftswetten) |
| 14 Apr 2025 | Poland, Ministry of Finance | kalshi.com and www.kalshi.com entered in the register, entries 49208 and 49209; predictit.org and predictit.com followed on 12 May 2025 | [Register of domains](https://hazard.mf.gov.pl/) |
| 30 Jan 2025 | Belgium, Kansspelcommissie | Added Polymarket to the blacklist after warnings went unanswered and asked the prosecutor to have access blocked | [CDC Gaming](https://cdcgaming.com/brief/belgium-blocks-polymarket-as-blacklisted-website/); [SBC News](https://sbcnews.co.uk/sportsbook/2025/02/03/polymarket-belgium-ban/) |
| 8 Jan 2025 | Poland, Ministry of Finance | polymarket.com, www.polymarket.com and learn.polymarket.com entered in the register of domains used to offer gambling contrary to the Act, entries 47994 to 47996; providers must block within 48 hours of an entry and payment providers must stop within 30 days | [Register of domains](https://hazard.mf.gov.pl/); [Ministry of Finance, how the register works](https://www.gov.pl/web/finanse/rejestr-domen-sluzacych-do-oferowania-gier-hazardowych-niezgodnie-z-ustawa) |
| 29 Nov 2024 | France, ANJ | Communiqué: after the ANJ examined polymarket.com and approached Adventure One QSS Inc., the company introduced geoblocking that prevents play from France | [ANJ, 29 Nov 2024](https://anj.fr/suite-lintervention-de-lanj-le-site-polymarket-ne-propose-plus-ses-services-sur-le-territoire) |
| 26 Nov 2024 | Switzerland, Gespa | Blocking order for polymarket.com under article 86 of the Gambling Act; the domain has been on Gespa's blocking list since that date, which internet providers must apply | [Gespa blocking list, 25 Aug 2026](https://blocklist.gespa.ch/comlot_blacklist.pdf) |
| 25 Nov 2024 | Latvia, Lotteries and Gambling Supervisory Inspection | Decided to block polymarket.com, which was then added to the list of blocked gambling websites that internet providers must apply; the State Revenue Service confirmed the decision to Vultax on 12 October 2026 and said it was not appealed | [State Revenue Service, blocked-domain list](https://www.vid.gov.lv/lv/media/33860/download?attachment=); [blocked operators and websites](https://www.vid.gov.lv/lv/bloketie-komersanti) |

[CSV](https://vultax.com/research/prediction-markets-europe-regulation-tracker/data.csv?dataset=the-record-table), [JSON](https://vultax.com/research/prediction-markets-europe-regulation-tracker/data.json?dataset=the-record-table)

<a id="polymarket-own-restrictions"></a>
## Eleven blocks that Polymarket does not apply itself

Polymarket's restrictions page, read on 19 October 2026, lists the countries where its own website and API refuse new positions. In Europe these are Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Slovakia and the United Kingdom on both the website and the API, and Ireland, the Netherlands and Malta on the website only, with Malta marked sports only. Ukraine appears for three regions, not the country.

Spain, Portugal, Hungary, Czechia, Lithuania, Romania, Switzerland, Cyprus, Greece, Latvia and Denmark do not appear on that page. In those eleven countries the regulator's block rests on internet providers alone, and the Spanish and Swiss tests below show what that means in practice: the block holds on some networks and not on others. Latvia's State Revenue Service told Vultax on 12 October that the supervisor has not asked Polymarket to restrict Latvian users. Ireland shows the other route: there is no blocking order, but a GRAI spokesperson told Vultax that two major prediction-market operators geoblocked Ireland after the authority's interventions, and Ireland is on Polymarket's list.

Regulators' orders from the record above; Polymarket's restrictions from its geographic-restrictions page, read 19 October 2026. Kalshi publishes no comparable page.

| Country | Regulator's order | Polymarket's own restriction, 19 Oct 2026 |
| --- | --- | --- |
| France | ISP block, 16 Jul 2026 | Close-only on website and API |
| Belgium | Blacklist, 30 Jan 2025 | Close-only on website and API |
| Italy | ISP block, 10 Jul 2026, in force 27 Jul | Close-only on website and API |
| Germany | Proceedings; no ISP order | Close-only on website and API |
| Poland | Register entry, 8 Jan 2025 | Close-only on website and API |
| Netherlands | Penalty order, 20 Jan 2026 | Close-only on website only |
| Ireland | No order; GRAI interventions, 2026 | Close-only on website only |
| Spain | ISP block, 26 May 2026 | Not listed |
| Portugal | Ban, 16 Jan 2026 | Not listed |
| Hungary | ISP block, 16 Jan 2026 | Not listed |
| Czechia | Listed, 13 Jul 2026 | Not listed |
| Lithuania | ISP block, 8 Sep 2026 | Not listed |
| Romania | Blacklist, 29 Oct 2025 | Not listed |
| Switzerland | ISP block, 26 Nov 2024 | Not listed |
| Cyprus | Blocking list, by 24 Feb 2026 | Not listed |
| Greece | Blacklist, 21 Nov 2025 | Not listed |
| Latvia | Blocked-site list, 25 Nov 2024 | Not listed |
| Denmark | Court-ordered ISP block, 8 Jul 2026 | Not listed |
| Ukraine | Register, 10 Dec 2025 | Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk only |

[CSV](https://vultax.com/research/prediction-markets-europe-regulation-tracker/data.csv?dataset=polymarket-own-restrictions-table), [JSON](https://vultax.com/research/prediction-markets-europe-regulation-tracker/data.json?dataset=polymarket-own-restrictions-table)

<a id="measured"></a>
## Only three blocks have been measured

An authority order is a document. Observed access is a separate measurement. OONI's public dataset for the stated window contains tests from three of the sixteen blocking jurisdictions, with just thirteen tests from Switzerland. The Open Observatory of Network Interference collects web-connectivity tests run by volunteers on their own connections. Vultax read its aggregate counts for polymarket.com and kalshi.com from 21 July to 19 October 2026.

In France, 385 of 472 tests of polymarket.com were anomalous or failed: 327 were marked anomalous against the control and 58 failed outright. In Spain, 381 of 791 tests were anomalous, which matches the earlier finding that the block holds on Telefónica and Vodafone and barely applies on Orange. In Switzerland, where the block has been in force since November 2024, 11 of 13 tests loaded. For kalshi.com, Spain is the only country with tests: 1,059 were marked anomalous and one failed, giving 1,060 anomalous or failed tests out of 1,621. These categories are combined in the table.

From Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Hungary, Czechia, Lithuania, Romania, Belgium, Ukraine, Poland, Cyprus, Greece, Latvia and Denmark there were no tests of either site in the window. Sweden had six, all loading. The public OONI record leaves most listed blocking countries unmeasured in this window.

OONI aggregation API, web_connectivity tests, 21 July to 19 October 2026, read 19 October. An anomalous test is one that differs from OONI's control; it is evidence of interference, not proof of a block on every connection.

| Country | polymarket.com: anomalous or failed, of tests | kalshi.com: anomalous or failed, of tests | Regulator's order |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| France | 385 of 472 | no tests | ISP block since 16 Jul 2026 |
| Spain | 381 of 791 | 1,060 of 1,621 | ISP block since 26 May 2026 |
| Switzerland | 2 of 13 | no tests | ISP block since 26 Nov 2024 |
| Sweden | 0 of 6 | no tests | None found |
| Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Hungary, Czechia, Lithuania, Romania, Belgium, Ukraine, Poland, Cyprus, Greece, Latvia, Denmark | no tests | no tests | Orders in the record above |

[CSV](https://vultax.com/research/prediction-markets-europe-regulation-tracker/data.csv?dataset=measured-table), [JSON](https://vultax.com/research/prediction-markets-europe-regulation-tracker/data.json?dataset=measured-table)

### Share of polymarket.com tests that were anomalous or failed, by country

OONI web-connectivity tests marked anomalous or failed, 21 July to 19 October 2026; countries with at least five tests

| Category | polymarket.com (%) |
| --- | --- |
| France | 81.6 |
| Spain | 48.2 |
| Switzerland | 15.4 |
| Sweden | 0 |

[CSV](https://vultax.com/research/prediction-markets-europe-regulation-tracker/data.csv?dataset=measured-chart), [JSON](https://vultax.com/research/prediction-markets-europe-regulation-tracker/data.json?dataset=measured-chart)

<a id="licences"></a>
## Where a licence exists or is being discussed

Gibraltar is the only European jurisdiction with a regime written for prediction markets. The Prediction Market Regulations 2026 came into force on 13 July 2026 under the Gambling Act 2025. They create an authorisation that is not a gambling licence, with a public register and core conditions in a schedule. The register, read on 19 October, lists two authorised operators, Predict Street Limited and Wire Alternative Markets Limited, without dates. The Fees and Duties Regulations of 13 August set an application fee of 30,000 pounds, an annual fee of 100,000 pounds and a general prediction market duty of 0.15 percent of commission charged.

Malta has no dedicated regime. Its authority told Vultax on 17 October that some prediction-market products may fit existing betting licences, and two days earlier Hacksaw Group announced that the authority had extended its supplier licence to Type 3 gaming services for a peer-to-peer prediction-markets platform.

Ireland has no regime written for prediction markets, but its general licence reaches them. Since 1 July 2026 any operator providing remote betting or remote betting intermediary services to consumers in Ireland must hold a GRAI licence, and a GRAI spokesperson told Vultax on 6 October that prediction markets providing betting activities fall within the definition of a remote betting intermediary. Operators without a licence should prevent access from Ireland, the spokesperson said.

Britain splits the question in two. The Gambling Commission said in February that a prediction-market business could require a betting intermediary licence. The FCA's perimeter work treats the financial contracts it examined as binary options, which cannot be sold to retail clients, and on 6 October its markets executive director said the authority is engaging with operators on their UK plans. No rule has changed.

At EU level, ESMA's statement of 3 July says an event contract whose question concerns a financial underlying is a derivative: it falls under the national bans on binary options for retail clients and may be distributed only by an authorised investment firm. Its risk report of 10 September adds that the largest platforms hold no EU authorisation, that insider trading is a live risk, and that the platforms restrict some EU countries and not others.

<a id="what-regulators-told-vultax"></a>
## What eight regulators told Vultax in writing

This article links or quotes eight written responses: [Germany's GGL](https://vultax.com/market-updates/polymarket-kalshi-germany-ggl-proceedings) on 7 October, [Spain's DGOJ](https://vultax.com/market-updates/polymarket-kalshi-spain-sanction-decision) on 1 October, [Lithuania's Gaming Control Authority](https://vultax.com/market-updates/polymarket-blocked-in-lithuania) on 30 September, [Czechia's Ministry of Finance](https://vultax.com/market-updates/kalshi-blocked-in-czech-republic) on 2 October, the [Malta Gaming Authority](https://vultax.com/market-updates/malta-mga-prediction-markets-significant-interest) on 17 October, Latvia's State Revenue Service on 12 October, and Ireland's GRAI and the Danish Gambling Authority on 6 October. The first five each have their own page, and Latvia's answer is reported on its own page from 22 October 2026; the Irish and Danish answers are quoted here. This is the published-response count, not the total number of authorities in Vultax's correspondence.

"Following interventions by the GRAI, earlier this year two major prediction market operators geoblocked their services to Ireland," a GRAI spokesperson said. "This means they have voluntarily restricted access to their platforms for users in Ireland." The authority said it cannot comment on individual operators or ongoing investigations, and that legal action against unlicensed operators can include prosecutions and applications to the High Court for blocking orders directed at internet service providers, app stores and financial institutions.

Asked about Polymarket's appeal, whether it had asked Polymarket to block Danish users and whether kalshi.com was under review, the Danish Gambling Authority replied: "All we can say is a remand has been claimed, and the appeal is still pending. We have no further comments."

<a id="method-and-limits"></a>
## Method and limits

An action enters the record when a public authority, a court, or a regulator's written reply to Vultax records it. The date is the document's own date; where Vultax has read only press reports, the row says reported and the date is the report's. Polymarket's own restrictions come from its geographic-restrictions page and describe its published policy, not tested access. Kalshi publishes no comparable page and most of its contracts are offered to United States residents only. Entries in the Polish, Swiss, Cypriot, Italian, Romanian, Latvian and Danish lists are read from the authorities' own published lists; where a list publishes no entry date, the row carries the date by which Vultax saw the entry and, where an archived copy exists, the date it was still absent.

The network measurements are OONI's aggregate counts by probe country. Volunteers choose when and where to run tests, so the counts are not a sample of all connections, and an anomalous result is evidence of interference rather than proof that a block applies on every network. Where no tests exist, Vultax says so rather than inferring anything.

The record covers the European Union, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Gibraltar and Ukraine. It is updated when a new document is read; the changelog records material changes. Challenge a row at research@vultax.com.

## Questions

### Is Polymarket blocked in Europe?

In sixteen European jurisdictions a regulator or a court has ordered internet providers to block it or has blacklisted it: Latvia, Switzerland, Poland, Belgium, Romania, Greece, Ukraine, Portugal, Hungary, Cyprus, Spain, Denmark, Italy, Czechia, France and Lithuania. Polymarket itself applies close-only restrictions in Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Slovakia, the United Kingdom, Ireland, the Netherlands and Malta, and not in the eleven countries whose blocks rest on internet providers alone.

### Which European country licenses prediction markets?

Gibraltar, under the Prediction Market Regulations 2026 in force since 13 July 2026, with an authorisation separate from a gambling licence; its register lists two authorised operators and the annual fee is 100,000 pounds. Malta's authority says some products may fit existing betting licences and has extended one supplier licence to Type 3 services. Ireland requires a GRAI licence for prediction markets that offer betting, as remote betting intermediaries. Britain has no licence; its Gambling Commission says one could be required and the FCA keeps its retail ban on binary options.

### What has ESMA said about prediction markets?

On 3 July 2026 ESMA said an event contract whose question concerns a financial underlying is a derivative, falls under the national bans on selling binary options to retail clients, and may be distributed only by an authorised investment firm. Its risk report of 10 September 2026 adds that the largest platforms hold no EU authorisation and that insider trading is a live risk.

### Do the European blocks actually work?

Measured in only three countries, and thinly in one. In France 385 of 472 public tests of polymarket.com were anomalous or failed between 21 July and 19 October 2026; in Spain 381 of 791, because the block holds on some networks and barely applies on Orange; in Switzerland 11 of 13 tests loaded despite a block in force since November 2024. No tests exist from the other thirteen blocking countries in that window.

## Revision notes

- 2026-10-19: Expanded the record to 44 actions and 19 jurisdictions using the additional authority documents listed in Sources. Clarified that the Spain/Kalshi total combines 1,059 anomalous tests and one failure, and separated published regulator replies from the wider correspondence total. Network-test labels now name the observed categories.
- 2026-10-19: Added Latvia, where polymarket.com has been blocked since 25 November 2024, and Denmark, where a court ordered the block on 8 July 2026: sixteen blocking orders, eleven of them not applied by Polymarket itself. Added the written answers of Latvia's State Revenue Service, Ireland's GRAI and the Danish Gambling Authority.

## Sources and methodology

- [ESMA: public statement on the application of national binary-options measures to event contracts, 3 July 2026](https://www.esma.europa.eu/sites/default/files/2026-07/ESMA35-243228190-8148_Public_Statement_on_the_application_of_the_national_product_intervention_measures_on_binary_options_to_event_contracts.pdf) — ESMA35-243228190-8148
- [ESMA: TRV Risk Monitor No. 2, 2026, 10 September 2026](https://www.esma.europa.eu/sites/default/files/2026-09/ESMA50-1949966494-4282_TRV_Risk_Monitor_2_2026.pdf) — In-depth section on prediction markets
- [Gibraltar: Prediction Market Regulations 2026, LN.2026/176](https://www.gibraltarlaws.gov.gi/uploads/legislations/gambling/2026s176/2026s176.pdf) — In force 13 July 2026
- [Lithuania, Gaming Control Authority: access to polymarket.com blocked after an investigation, 8 September 2026](https://lpt.lrv.lt/lt/naujienos/po-lpt-tyrimo-uzblokuota-prieiga-prie-polymarket-svetaines-Jno/) — Lithuanian
- [Czech Ministry of Finance: published data from the List of Unauthorised Internet Games, 30 September 2026](https://mf.gov.cz/assets/attachments/Zverejnovane-udaje-ze-Seznamu-nepovolenych-internetovych-her_v210.pdf) — Czech, PDF
- [GGL: warning on illegal bets on social events, 5 September 2025](https://www.gluecksspiel-behoerde.de/de/news/ggl-warnt-vor-teilnahme-an-illegalen-gesellschaftswetten) — German; names Polymarket
- [Vultax: Germany's GGL confirms proceedings, 7 October 2026](https://vultax.com/market-updates/polymarket-kalshi-germany-ggl-proceedings) — The authority's written answer
- [Vultax: Polymarket is blocked in Spain, but on Orange 98% of tests still load, 2 October 2026](https://vultax.com/market-updates/polymarket-kalshi-spain-sanction-decision) — The DGOJ's written answer and the Spanish network tests
- [Vultax: Lithuania is evaluating other prediction markets, 30 September 2026](https://vultax.com/market-updates/polymarket-blocked-in-lithuania) — The authority's written answer
- [Vultax: Czechia blocks Kalshi, 1 October 2026](https://vultax.com/market-updates/kalshi-blocked-in-czech-republic) — The ministry's written answer
- [Vultax: Malta's MGA sees significant interest, 17 October 2026](https://vultax.com/market-updates/malta-mga-prediction-markets-significant-interest) — The authority's written answer
- [Hacksaw Group: launches B2B prediction markets platform, 15 October 2026](https://mfn.se/a/hacksaw/hacksaw-group-launches-b2b-prediction-markets-platform-expanding-technology-and-distribution-ecosystem) — Company announcement of the MGA Type 3 extension
- [France 24: France orders internet providers to block Polymarket, 17 July 2026](https://www.france24.com/en/france/20260717-france-orders-internet-service-providers-to-block-access-to-polymarket) — The ANJ order of 16 July
- [CoinDesk: Polymarket to challenge France's block, 23 July 2026](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/07/23/polymarket-to-challenge-france-s-nationwide-website-block)
- [L'Espresso: Polymarket blocked in Italy from 27 July, 24 July 2026](https://lespresso.it/c/innovazione/2026/7/24/polymarket-stop-bloccato-perche/63673) — Italian; ADM decision of 10 July
- [Sky TG24: TAR rejects Polymarket's urgent appeal, 5 August 2026](https://tg24.sky.it/economia/2026/08/05/polymarket-italia-chiuso-ricorso-respinto) — Italian
- [NOS: regulator says Polymarket must leave the Netherlands or pay, 2026](https://nos.nl/l/2602855) — Dutch; the order under penalty
- [CasinoNieuws: Ksa rejects Polymarket's objection, 23 June 2026](https://www.casinonieuws.nl/online/ksa-bezwaar-polymarket/) — Dutch
- [EGR: European regulators join forces against prediction markets, June 2026](https://www.egr.global/intel/news/european-regulators-join-forces-and-threaten-action-against-prediction-markets/) — The joint statement of 17 June
- [Gaming Tech Law: nine regulators warn over the World Cup, June 2026](https://www.gamingtechlaw.com/2026/06/prediction-markets-in-europe/) — Names ADM, ANJ, DGOJ, GGL and Gespa among the signatories
- [Decrypt via Yahoo: Polymarket banned in Portugal and Hungary, 20 January 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/polymarket-banned-portugal-hungary-prediction-175111303.html)
- [Lexology: Hungary temporarily blocks access to Polymarket, CMS, January 2026](https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=314ca58f-8ef0-4608-9173-8ea5dddc1196) — The SZTFH order of 16 January
- [Decrypt via Yahoo: Ukraine blocks Polymarket, 2025 to 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-blocks-polymarket-over-war-163335690.html) — Resolution 695 of 10 December 2025
- [CDC Gaming: Belgium blocks Polymarket as a blacklisted website, February 2025](https://cdcgaming.com/brief/belgium-blocks-polymarket-as-blacklisted-website/) — Blacklisting of 30 January 2025
- [iGaming Business via Public Gaming: how Europe is calling time on prediction markets, 23 July 2026](https://publicgaming.com/news-categories-m/legal/16156-how-europe-is-calling-time-on-prediction-markets-regulatory-free-ride) — The ANJ's count of countries and the November 2024 formal notice
- [The Paypers: FCA confirms talks, October 2026](https://thepaypers.com/crypto-web3-and-cbdc/news/fca-reportedly-confirms-talks-as-prediction-markets-push-back-on-gambling-label) — FCA perimeter position and the Gambling Commission's February statement
- [SBC News: Gibraltar feature, 4 June 2026](https://sbcnews.co.uk/features/2026/06/04/gibraltar/) — Predict Street licence of 8 April 2026
- [Polymarket: geographic restrictions](https://docs.polymarket.com/api-reference/geoblock) — Read 19 October 2026
- [OONI: aggregation API, web-connectivity tests of polymarket.com and kalshi.com by country](https://api.ooni.io/api/v1/aggregation?domain=polymarket.com&since=2026-07-21&until=2026-10-19&test_name=web_connectivity&axis_x=probe_cc) — Read 19 October 2026; the kalshi.com query differs only in the domain
- [Poland, Ministry of Finance: register of domains used to offer gambling contrary to the Act](https://hazard.mf.gov.pl/) — Read 19 October 2026; entries 47994 to 47996 of 8 January 2025 and 49208 to 49209 of 14 April 2025
- [Poland, Ministry of Finance: how the register works, article 15f](https://www.gov.pl/web/finanse/rejestr-domen-sluzacych-do-oferowania-gier-hazardowych-niezgodnie-z-ustawa) — Blocking within 48 hours, payment services stopped within 30 days
- [Gespa: blocking list of the Swiss Gambling Supervisory Authority, 25 August 2026](https://blocklist.gespa.ch/comlot_blacklist.pdf) — polymarket.com blocked 26 November 2024, kalshi.com 25 November 2025
- [Gespa: media release on prediction markets, 17 June 2026](https://www.gespa.ch/download/pictures/33/vqqy606j9ss18bv1iw621p37i8ept9/26-06-17_medienmitteilung_prognosemaerkte_en.pdf) — English
- [ONJN: decision 883 of 29 October 2025 on the blacklist, with annexes](https://onjn.gov.ro/decizia-nr-883-din-29-10-2025/) — Romanian; polymarket.com is number 19 in annex 1
- [ONJN: decision 76 of 13 February 2026 on the blacklist, with annexes](https://onjn.gov.ro/decizia-nr-76-din-13-02-2026/) — Romanian; kalshi.com is number 4 in annex 1
- [Kansspelautoriteit: order under penalty on Adventure One QSS Inc., 20 January 2026](https://kansspelautoriteit.nl/sites/default/files/2026-02/2026-01-20_22310_LOD%20Adventure%20One%20SQQ%20Inc._sanctiebesluit.pdf) — Dutch, PDF; decision 22310/01.370.802
- [Kansspelautoriteit: Adventure One QSS Inc. (Polymarket) case page](https://kansspelautoriteit.nl/adventure-one-qss-inc-polymarket) — Collection decision of 19 May and decision on objection of 23 June 2026
- [ANJ: after the ANJ's intervention, Polymarket no longer offers its services in France, 29 November 2024](https://anj.fr/suite-lintervention-de-lanj-le-site-polymarket-ne-propose-plus-ses-services-sur-le-territoire) — French
- [ANJ: prediction-market platforms are illegal sites in France, 24 February 2026](https://anj.fr/plateformes-de-marches-de-prediction-des-sites-illegaux-en-france-qui-peuvent-presenter-des-risques) — French; names the countries that have blocked Polymarket
- [ANJ: promotion of an illegal gambling offer, blocking of the Polymarket site, 17 July 2026](https://anj.fr/promotion-dune-offre-de-jeux-dargent-illegale-blocage-du-site-polymarket) — French; the order of 16 July
- [Gibraltar: Prediction Market (Fees and Duties) Regulations 2026, LN.2026/316](https://www.gibraltarlaws.gov.gi/uploads/legislations/gambling/2026s316/2026s316.pdf) — In operation 13 August 2026
- [Gibraltar Gambling Division: prediction market authorisations and register](https://gamblingdivision.gov.gi/prediction-market-authorisations) — Read 19 October 2026; two operators listed
- [Cyprus, National Betting Authority: blocking list](https://nba.gov.cy/wp-content/uploads/BlockingListLatest.txt) — Read 19 October 2026; the archived copy of 17 September 2025 did not list polymarket.com or kalshi.com
- [ADM: decision of 10 July 2026 blocking 293 more sites](https://www.adm.gov.it/portale/documents/20182/128370228/Nota427985RU_Fri+Jul+10+020000+CEST+2026.pdf) — Italian, PDF; decision 427985, effective 27 July 2026
- [ADM: list of blocked gambling sites](https://www.adm.gov.it/portale/documents/20182/109453590/elenco_siti_inibiti.pdf) — Read 19 October 2026; the archived text copy of 18 January 2026 already lists kalshi.com
- [SiGMA: Romanian court keeps Polymarket on the ONJN blacklist, 6 April 2026](https://sigma.world/news/romanian-court-keeps-polymarket-onjn-blacklist/) — The ruling of 1 April 2026
- [iGaming Business: Gibraltar licenses first prediction market operator, 1 April 2026](https://igamingbusiness.com/prediction-markets/gibraltar-licenses-first-prediction-market-operator/) — Predict Street Ltd, licence of 26 March 2026
- [Greece, Hellenic Gaming Commission: list of unlicensed gambling providers (Blacklist), 53rd edition, decision 24363 of 29 July 2026](https://hgc.gov.gr/wp-content/uploads/blacklist.xlsx) — Read 19 October 2026; polymarket.com added by decision 32917 of 21 November 2025, kalshi.com by decision 11131 of 9 April 2026
- [State Revenue Service of Latvia: blocked operators and websites (in Latvian)](https://www.vid.gov.lv/lv/bloketie-komersanti) — Legal basis for website and payment blocking; read 19 October 2026
- [State Revenue Service of Latvia: list of blocked domains](https://www.vid.gov.lv/lv/media/33860/download?attachment=) — polymarket.com, www.polymarket.com, kalshi.com and www.kalshi.com listed; downloaded 19 October 2026
- [State Revenue Service of Latvia: operators that credit and payment institutions may not work with](https://www.vid.gov.lv/lv/media/33851/download?attachment=) — KalshiEX LLC and Kalshi Klear LLC under decision 3985-Blok of 22 December 2025; Adventure One QSS not listed; downloaded 19 October 2026
- [Danish Gambling Authority: the Danish Gambling Authority blocks 98 illegal gambling sites, 19 August 2026](https://spillemyndigheden.dk/en-us/news-articles/the-danish-gambling-authority-blocks-98-illegal-gambling-sites) — The Frederiksberg court's ruling of 8 July 2026
- [Danish Gambling Authority: websites blocked, July 2026](https://spillemyndigheden.dk/media/ettbgi33/websites-blocked-july-2026.pdf) — polymarket.com is number 97 of 98; read 19 October 2026
- [Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland: business-to-consumer licences](https://www.grai.ie/licensing-regulation/business-to-consumer-licenses) — The licence classes, including remote betting intermediary