{ "schemaVersion": "vultax-public-research-data-v1", "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-markets-europe-regulation-tracker", "datasets": [ { "title": "Only three blocks have been measured", "columns": [ { "name": "Country", "unit": null }, { "name": "polymarket.com: anomalous or failed, of tests", "unit": null }, { "name": "kalshi.com: anomalous or failed, of tests", "unit": null }, { "name": "Regulator's order", "unit": null } ], "rows": [ [ "France", "385 of 472", "no tests", "ISP block since 16 Jul 2026" ], [ "Spain", "381 of 791", "1,060 of 1,621", "ISP block since 26 May 2026" ], [ "Switzerland", "2 of 13", "no tests", "ISP block since 26 Nov 2024" ], [ "Sweden", "0 of 6", "no tests", "None found" ], [ "Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Hungary, Czechia, Lithuania, Romania, Belgium, Ukraine, Poland, Cyprus, Greece, Latvia, Denmark", "no tests", "no tests", "Orders in the record above" ] ], "measurementContext": "OONI aggregation API, web_connectivity tests, 21 July to 19 October 2026, read 19 October. An anomalous test is one that differs from OONI's control; it is evidence of interference, not proof of a block on every connection.", "sources": [ { "label": "ESMA: public statement on the application of national binary-options measures to event contracts, 3 July 2026", "url": "https://www.esma.europa.eu/sites/default/files/2026-07/ESMA35-243228190-8148_Public_Statement_on_the_application_of_the_national_product_intervention_measures_on_binary_options_to_event_contracts.pdf", "note": "ESMA35-243228190-8148" }, { "label": "ESMA: TRV Risk Monitor No. 2, 2026, 10 September 2026", "url": "https://www.esma.europa.eu/sites/default/files/2026-09/ESMA50-1949966494-4282_TRV_Risk_Monitor_2_2026.pdf", "note": "In-depth section on prediction markets" }, { "label": "Gibraltar: Prediction Market Regulations 2026, LN.2026/176", "url": "https://www.gibraltarlaws.gov.gi/uploads/legislations/gambling/2026s176/2026s176.pdf", "note": "In force 13 July 2026" }, { "label": "Lithuania, Gaming Control Authority: access to polymarket.com blocked after an investigation, 8 September 2026", "url": "https://lpt.lrv.lt/lt/naujienos/po-lpt-tyrimo-uzblokuota-prieiga-prie-polymarket-svetaines-Jno/", "note": "Lithuanian" }, { "label": "Czech Ministry of Finance: published data from the List of Unauthorised Internet Games, 30 September 2026", "url": "https://mf.gov.cz/assets/attachments/Zverejnovane-udaje-ze-Seznamu-nepovolenych-internetovych-her_v210.pdf", "note": "Czech, PDF" }, { "label": "GGL: warning on illegal bets on social events, 5 September 2025", "url": "https://www.gluecksspiel-behoerde.de/de/news/ggl-warnt-vor-teilnahme-an-illegalen-gesellschaftswetten", "note": "German; names Polymarket" }, { "label": "Vultax: Germany's GGL confirms proceedings, 7 October 2026", "url": "https://vultax.com/market-updates/polymarket-kalshi-germany-ggl-proceedings", "note": "The authority's written answer" }, { "label": "Vultax: Polymarket is blocked in Spain, but on Orange 98% of tests still load, 2 October 2026", "url": "https://vultax.com/market-updates/polymarket-kalshi-spain-sanction-decision", "note": "The DGOJ's written answer and the Spanish network tests" }, { "label": "Vultax: Lithuania is evaluating other prediction markets, 30 September 2026", "url": "https://vultax.com/market-updates/polymarket-blocked-in-lithuania", "note": "The authority's written answer" }, { "label": "Vultax: Czechia blocks Kalshi, 1 October 2026", "url": "https://vultax.com/market-updates/kalshi-blocked-in-czech-republic", "note": "The ministry's written answer" }, { "label": "Vultax: Malta's MGA sees significant interest, 17 October 2026", "url": "https://vultax.com/market-updates/malta-mga-prediction-markets-significant-interest", "note": "The authority's written answer" }, { "label": "Hacksaw Group: launches B2B prediction markets platform, 15 October 2026", "url": "https://mfn.se/a/hacksaw/hacksaw-group-launches-b2b-prediction-markets-platform-expanding-technology-and-distribution-ecosystem", "note": "Company announcement of the MGA Type 3 extension" }, { "label": "France 24: France orders internet providers to block Polymarket, 17 July 2026", "url": "https://www.france24.com/en/france/20260717-france-orders-internet-service-providers-to-block-access-to-polymarket", "note": "The ANJ order of 16 July" }, { "label": "CoinDesk: Polymarket to challenge France's block, 23 July 2026", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/07/23/polymarket-to-challenge-france-s-nationwide-website-block", "note": "" }, { "label": "L'Espresso: Polymarket blocked in Italy from 27 July, 24 July 2026", "url": "https://lespresso.it/c/innovazione/2026/7/24/polymarket-stop-bloccato-perche/63673", "note": "Italian; ADM decision of 10 July" }, { "label": "Sky TG24: TAR rejects Polymarket's urgent appeal, 5 August 2026", "url": "https://tg24.sky.it/economia/2026/08/05/polymarket-italia-chiuso-ricorso-respinto", "note": "Italian" }, { "label": "NOS: regulator says Polymarket must leave the Netherlands or pay, 2026", "url": "https://nos.nl/l/2602855", "note": "Dutch; the order under penalty" }, { "label": "CasinoNieuws: Ksa rejects Polymarket's objection, 23 June 2026", "url": "https://www.casinonieuws.nl/online/ksa-bezwaar-polymarket/", "note": "Dutch" }, { "label": "EGR: European regulators join forces against prediction markets, June 2026", "url": "https://www.egr.global/intel/news/european-regulators-join-forces-and-threaten-action-against-prediction-markets/", "note": "The joint statement of 17 June" }, { "label": "Gaming Tech Law: nine regulators warn over the World Cup, June 2026", "url": "https://www.gamingtechlaw.com/2026/06/prediction-markets-in-europe/", "note": "Names ADM, ANJ, DGOJ, GGL and Gespa among the signatories" }, { "label": "Decrypt via Yahoo: Polymarket banned in Portugal and Hungary, 20 January 2026", "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/polymarket-banned-portugal-hungary-prediction-175111303.html", "note": "" }, { "label": "Lexology: Hungary temporarily blocks access to Polymarket, CMS, January 2026", "url": "https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=314ca58f-8ef0-4608-9173-8ea5dddc1196", "note": "The SZTFH order of 16 January" }, { "label": "Decrypt via Yahoo: Ukraine blocks Polymarket, 2025 to 2026", "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-blocks-polymarket-over-war-163335690.html", "note": "Resolution 695 of 10 December 2025" }, { "label": "CDC Gaming: Belgium blocks Polymarket as a blacklisted website, February 2025", "url": "https://cdcgaming.com/brief/belgium-blocks-polymarket-as-blacklisted-website/", "note": "Blacklisting of 30 January 2025" }, { "label": "iGaming Business via Public Gaming: how Europe is calling time on prediction markets, 23 July 2026", "url": "https://publicgaming.com/news-categories-m/legal/16156-how-europe-is-calling-time-on-prediction-markets-regulatory-free-ride", "note": "The ANJ's count of countries and the November 2024 formal notice" }, { "label": "The Paypers: FCA confirms talks, October 2026", "url": "https://thepaypers.com/crypto-web3-and-cbdc/news/fca-reportedly-confirms-talks-as-prediction-markets-push-back-on-gambling-label", "note": "FCA perimeter position and the Gambling Commission's February statement" }, { "label": "SBC News: Gibraltar feature, 4 June 2026", "url": "https://sbcnews.co.uk/features/2026/06/04/gibraltar/", "note": "Predict Street licence of 8 April 2026" }, { "label": "Polymarket: geographic restrictions", "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/api-reference/geoblock", "note": "Read 19 October 2026" }, { "label": "OONI: aggregation API, web-connectivity tests of polymarket.com and kalshi.com by country", "url": "https://api.ooni.io/api/v1/aggregation?domain=polymarket.com&since=2026-07-21&until=2026-10-19&test_name=web_connectivity&axis_x=probe_cc", "note": "Read 19 October 2026; the kalshi.com query differs only in the domain" }, { "label": "Poland, Ministry of Finance: register of domains used to offer gambling contrary to the Act", "url": "https://hazard.mf.gov.pl/", "note": "Read 19 October 2026; entries 47994 to 47996 of 8 January 2025 and 49208 to 49209 of 14 April 2025" }, { "label": "Poland, Ministry of Finance: how the register works, article 15f", "url": "https://www.gov.pl/web/finanse/rejestr-domen-sluzacych-do-oferowania-gier-hazardowych-niezgodnie-z-ustawa", "note": "Blocking within 48 hours, payment services stopped within 30 days" }, { "label": "Gespa: blocking list of the Swiss Gambling Supervisory Authority, 25 August 2026", "url": "https://blocklist.gespa.ch/comlot_blacklist.pdf", "note": "polymarket.com blocked 26 November 2024, kalshi.com 25 November 2025" }, { "label": "Gespa: media release on prediction markets, 17 June 2026", "url": "https://www.gespa.ch/download/pictures/33/vqqy606j9ss18bv1iw621p37i8ept9/26-06-17_medienmitteilung_prognosemaerkte_en.pdf", "note": "English" }, { "label": "ONJN: decision 883 of 29 October 2025 on the blacklist, with annexes", "url": "https://onjn.gov.ro/decizia-nr-883-din-29-10-2025/", "note": "Romanian; polymarket.com is number 19 in annex 1" }, { "label": "ONJN: decision 76 of 13 February 2026 on the blacklist, with annexes", "url": "https://onjn.gov.ro/decizia-nr-76-din-13-02-2026/", "note": "Romanian; kalshi.com is number 4 in annex 1" }, { "label": "Kansspelautoriteit: order under penalty on Adventure One QSS Inc., 20 January 2026", "url": "https://kansspelautoriteit.nl/sites/default/files/2026-02/2026-01-20_22310_LOD%20Adventure%20One%20SQQ%20Inc._sanctiebesluit.pdf", "note": "Dutch, PDF; decision 22310/01.370.802" }, { "label": "Kansspelautoriteit: Adventure One QSS Inc. (Polymarket) case page", "url": "https://kansspelautoriteit.nl/adventure-one-qss-inc-polymarket", "note": "Collection decision of 19 May and decision on objection of 23 June 2026" }, { "label": "ANJ: after the ANJ's intervention, Polymarket no longer offers its services in France, 29 November 2024", "url": "https://anj.fr/suite-lintervention-de-lanj-le-site-polymarket-ne-propose-plus-ses-services-sur-le-territoire", "note": "French" }, { "label": "ANJ: prediction-market platforms are illegal sites in France, 24 February 2026", "url": "https://anj.fr/plateformes-de-marches-de-prediction-des-sites-illegaux-en-france-qui-peuvent-presenter-des-risques", "note": "French; names the countries that have blocked Polymarket" }, { "label": "ANJ: promotion of an illegal gambling offer, blocking of the Polymarket site, 17 July 2026", "url": "https://anj.fr/promotion-dune-offre-de-jeux-dargent-illegale-blocage-du-site-polymarket", "note": "French; the order of 16 July" }, { "label": "Gibraltar: Prediction Market (Fees and Duties) Regulations 2026, LN.2026/316", "url": "https://www.gibraltarlaws.gov.gi/uploads/legislations/gambling/2026s316/2026s316.pdf", "note": "In operation 13 August 2026" }, { "label": "Gibraltar Gambling Division: prediction market authorisations and register", "url": "https://gamblingdivision.gov.gi/prediction-market-authorisations", "note": "Read 19 October 2026; two operators listed" }, { "label": "Cyprus, National Betting Authority: blocking list", "url": "https://nba.gov.cy/wp-content/uploads/BlockingListLatest.txt", "note": "Read 19 October 2026; the archived copy of 17 September 2025 did not list polymarket.com or kalshi.com" }, { "label": "ADM: decision of 10 July 2026 blocking 293 more sites", "url": "https://www.adm.gov.it/portale/documents/20182/128370228/Nota427985RU_Fri+Jul+10+020000+CEST+2026.pdf", "note": "Italian, PDF; decision 427985, effective 27 July 2026" }, { "label": "ADM: list of blocked gambling sites", "url": "https://www.adm.gov.it/portale/documents/20182/109453590/elenco_siti_inibiti.pdf", "note": "Read 19 October 2026; the archived text copy of 18 January 2026 already lists kalshi.com" }, { "label": "SiGMA: Romanian court keeps Polymarket on the ONJN blacklist, 6 April 2026", "url": "https://sigma.world/news/romanian-court-keeps-polymarket-onjn-blacklist/", "note": "The ruling of 1 April 2026" }, { "label": "iGaming Business: Gibraltar licenses first prediction market operator, 1 April 2026", "url": "https://igamingbusiness.com/prediction-markets/gibraltar-licenses-first-prediction-market-operator/", "note": "Predict Street Ltd, licence of 26 March 2026" }, { "label": "Greece, Hellenic Gaming Commission: list of unlicensed gambling providers (Blacklist), 53rd edition, decision 24363 of 29 July 2026", "url": "https://hgc.gov.gr/wp-content/uploads/blacklist.xlsx", "note": "Read 19 October 2026; polymarket.com added by decision 32917 of 21 November 2025, kalshi.com by decision 11131 of 9 April 2026" }, { "label": "State Revenue Service of Latvia: blocked operators and websites (in Latvian)", "url": "https://www.vid.gov.lv/lv/bloketie-komersanti", "note": "Legal basis for website and payment blocking; read 19 October 2026" }, { "label": "State Revenue Service of Latvia: list of blocked domains", "url": "https://www.vid.gov.lv/lv/media/33860/download?attachment=", "note": "polymarket.com, www.polymarket.com, kalshi.com and www.kalshi.com listed; downloaded 19 October 2026" }, { "label": "State Revenue Service of Latvia: operators that credit and payment institutions may not work with", "url": "https://www.vid.gov.lv/lv/media/33851/download?attachment=", "note": "KalshiEX LLC and Kalshi Klear LLC under decision 3985-Blok of 22 December 2025; Adventure One QSS not listed; downloaded 19 October 2026" }, { "label": "Danish Gambling Authority: the Danish Gambling Authority blocks 98 illegal gambling sites, 19 August 2026", "url": "https://spillemyndigheden.dk/en-us/news-articles/the-danish-gambling-authority-blocks-98-illegal-gambling-sites", "note": "The Frederiksberg court's ruling of 8 July 2026" }, { "label": "Danish Gambling Authority: websites blocked, July 2026", "url": "https://spillemyndigheden.dk/media/ettbgi33/websites-blocked-july-2026.pdf", "note": "polymarket.com is number 97 of 98; read 19 October 2026" }, { "label": "Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland: business-to-consumer licences", "url": "https://www.grai.ie/licensing-regulation/business-to-consumer-licenses", "note": "The licence classes, including remote betting intermediary" } ], "measurement": { "kind": null, "temporalCoverage": null, "population": null, "methodology": null }, "id": "measured-table", "kind": "published-table", "description": "Every European regulator's action on Polymarket and Kalshi, dated and sourced: 22 jurisdictions, sixteen blocking orders, one penalty, one licensing regime. Eleven of the sixteen blocks are not applied by Polymarket itself, and only France, Spain and Switzerland have network tests.", "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-markets-europe-regulation-tracker", "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-markets-europe-regulation-tracker#measured", "publishedAt": "2026-10-19", "modifiedAt": "2026-10-19", "version": "d58abd09c4846abe857b42b3c564f1862ce8fa5a9a018d575de3676f8edbfea2", "isLive": false, "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. A dated record of public documents and press reports, read to 19 October 2026, with the regulators' own written answers to Vultax where they exist. Rows marked reported rest on press coverage. Network measurements are OONI volunteers' tests and show interference, not a legal status. Nothing here is legal advice.", "downloads": { "json": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-markets-europe-regulation-tracker/data.json?dataset=measured-table", "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-markets-europe-regulation-tracker/data.csv?dataset=measured-table" } } ] }