{ "schemaVersion": "vultax-public-research-data-v1", "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-markets-europe-regulation-tracker", "datasets": [ { "title": "What comes next", "columns": [ { "name": "Date", "unit": null }, { "name": "Where", "unit": null }, { "name": "What is due", "unit": null } ], "rows": [ [ "15 Oct 2026", "Czechia, Ministry of Finance", "Internet providers must block kalshi.com from this day; polymarket.com has been listed since 13 July" ], [ "About 26 Nov 2026", "Spain, DGOJ", "Six-month limit on the sanction case opened on 26 May; a fine of 1 to 50 million euros is possible under article 42.3 of the Gambling Act" ], [ "Pending", "Italy, TAR Lazio", "Decision on the merits of Polymarket's appeal against the ADM block; the urgent appeal was refused on 5 August" ], [ "Pending", "Netherlands, court", "Polymarket's challenge to the Kansspelautoriteit's 420,000 euro penalty, forfeited after the 17 February deadline" ], [ "Pending", "Gibraltar, Licensing Authority", "First authorisations under the Prediction Market Regulations 2026; two operators are reported on the register" ], [ "1 Jan 2027", "Finland", "The new licensing regime opens; no Finnish action on prediction markets has been found" ] ], "measurementContext": "Dates from the regulators' own notices and from the court reports cited below, read 19 October 2026.", "sources": [ { "label": "ESMA: public statement on the application of national binary-options measures to event contracts, 3 July 2026", "url": "https://www.esma.europa.eu/sites/default/files/2026-07/ESMA35-243228190-8148_Public_Statement_on_the_application_of_the_national_product_intervention_measures_on_binary_options_to_event_contracts.pdf", "note": "ESMA35-243228190-8148" }, { "label": "ESMA: TRV Risk Monitor No. 2, 2026, 10 September 2026", "url": "https://www.esma.europa.eu/sites/default/files/2026-09/ESMA50-1949966494-4282_TRV_Risk_Monitor_2_2026.pdf", "note": "In-depth section on prediction markets" }, { "label": "Gibraltar: Prediction Market Regulations 2026, LN.2026/176", "url": "https://www.gibraltarlaws.gov.gi/uploads/legislations/gambling/2026s176/2026s176.pdf", "note": "In force 13 July 2026" }, { "label": "Lithuania, Gaming Control Authority: access to polymarket.com blocked after an investigation, 8 September 2026", "url": "https://lpt.lrv.lt/lt/naujienos/po-lpt-tyrimo-uzblokuota-prieiga-prie-polymarket-svetaines-Jno/", "note": "Lithuanian" }, { "label": "Czech Ministry of Finance: published data from the List of Unauthorised Internet Games, 30 September 2026", "url": "https://mf.gov.cz/assets/attachments/Zverejnovane-udaje-ze-Seznamu-nepovolenych-internetovych-her_v210.pdf", "note": "Czech, PDF" }, { "label": "GGL: warning on illegal bets on social events, 5 September 2025", "url": "https://www.gluecksspiel-behoerde.de/de/news/ggl-warnt-vor-teilnahme-an-illegalen-gesellschaftswetten", "note": "German; names Polymarket" }, { "label": "Vultax: Germany's GGL confirms proceedings, 7 October 2026", "url": "https://vultax.com/market-updates/polymarket-kalshi-germany-ggl-proceedings", "note": "The authority's written answer" }, { "label": "Vultax: Polymarket is blocked in Spain, but on Orange 98% of tests still load, 2 October 2026", "url": "https://vultax.com/market-updates/polymarket-kalshi-spain-sanction-decision", "note": "The DGOJ's written answer and the Spanish network tests" }, { "label": "Vultax: Lithuania is evaluating other prediction markets, 30 September 2026", "url": "https://vultax.com/market-updates/polymarket-blocked-in-lithuania", "note": "The authority's written answer" }, { "label": "Vultax: Czechia blocks Kalshi, 1 October 2026", "url": "https://vultax.com/market-updates/kalshi-blocked-in-czech-republic", "note": "The ministry's written answer" }, { "label": "Vultax: Malta's MGA sees significant interest, 17 October 2026", "url": "https://vultax.com/market-updates/malta-mga-prediction-markets-significant-interest", "note": "The authority's written answer" }, { "label": "Hacksaw Group: launches B2B prediction markets platform, 15 October 2026", "url": "https://mfn.se/a/hacksaw/hacksaw-group-launches-b2b-prediction-markets-platform-expanding-technology-and-distribution-ecosystem", "note": "Company announcement of the MGA Type 3 extension" }, { "label": "France 24: France orders internet providers to block Polymarket, 17 July 2026", "url": "https://www.france24.com/en/france/20260717-france-orders-internet-service-providers-to-block-access-to-polymarket", "note": "The ANJ order of 16 July" }, { "label": "CoinDesk: Polymarket to challenge France's block, 23 July 2026", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/07/23/polymarket-to-challenge-france-s-nationwide-website-block", "note": "" }, { "label": "L'Espresso: Polymarket blocked in Italy from 27 July, 24 July 2026", "url": "https://lespresso.it/c/innovazione/2026/7/24/polymarket-stop-bloccato-perche/63673", "note": "Italian; ADM decision of 10 July" }, { "label": "Sky TG24: TAR rejects Polymarket's urgent appeal, 5 August 2026", "url": "https://tg24.sky.it/economia/2026/08/05/polymarket-italia-chiuso-ricorso-respinto", "note": "Italian" }, { "label": "NOS: regulator says Polymarket must leave the Netherlands or pay, 2026", "url": "https://nos.nl/l/2602855", "note": "Dutch; the order under penalty" }, { "label": "CasinoNieuws: Ksa rejects Polymarket's objection, 23 June 2026", "url": "https://www.casinonieuws.nl/online/ksa-bezwaar-polymarket/", "note": "Dutch" }, { "label": "EGR: European regulators join forces against prediction markets, June 2026", "url": "https://www.egr.global/intel/news/european-regulators-join-forces-and-threaten-action-against-prediction-markets/", "note": "The joint statement of 17 June" }, { "label": "Gaming Tech Law: nine regulators warn over the World Cup, June 2026", "url": "https://www.gamingtechlaw.com/2026/06/prediction-markets-in-europe/", "note": "Names ADM, ANJ, DGOJ, GGL and Gespa among the signatories" }, { "label": "Decrypt via Yahoo: Polymarket banned in Portugal and Hungary, 20 January 2026", "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/polymarket-banned-portugal-hungary-prediction-175111303.html", "note": "" }, { "label": "Lexology: Hungary temporarily blocks access to Polymarket, CMS, January 2026", "url": "https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=314ca58f-8ef0-4608-9173-8ea5dddc1196", "note": "The SZTFH order of 16 January" }, { "label": "Decrypt via Yahoo: Ukraine blocks Polymarket, 2025 to 2026", "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-blocks-polymarket-over-war-163335690.html", "note": "Resolution 695 of 10 December 2025" }, { "label": "CDC Gaming: Belgium blocks Polymarket as a blacklisted website, February 2025", "url": "https://cdcgaming.com/brief/belgium-blocks-polymarket-as-blacklisted-website/", "note": "Blacklisting of 30 January 2025" }, { "label": "iGaming Business via Public Gaming: how Europe is calling time on prediction markets, 23 July 2026", "url": "https://publicgaming.com/news-categories-m/legal/16156-how-europe-is-calling-time-on-prediction-markets-regulatory-free-ride", "note": "The ANJ's count of countries and the November 2024 formal notice" }, { "label": "The Paypers: FCA confirms talks, October 2026", "url": "https://thepaypers.com/crypto-web3-and-cbdc/news/fca-reportedly-confirms-talks-as-prediction-markets-push-back-on-gambling-label", "note": "FCA perimeter position and the Gambling Commission's February statement" }, { "label": "SBC News: Gibraltar feature, 4 June 2026", "url": "https://sbcnews.co.uk/features/2026/06/04/gibraltar/", "note": "Predict Street licence of 8 April 2026" }, { "label": "Polymarket: geographic restrictions", "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/api-reference/geoblock", "note": "Read 19 October 2026" }, { "label": "OONI: aggregation API, web-connectivity tests of polymarket.com and kalshi.com by country", "url": "https://api.ooni.io/api/v1/aggregation?domain=polymarket.com&since=2026-07-21&until=2026-10-19&test_name=web_connectivity&axis_x=probe_cc", "note": "Read 19 October 2026; the kalshi.com query differs only in the domain" } ], "measurement": { "kind": null, "temporalCoverage": null, "population": null, "methodology": null }, "id": "next-table", "kind": "published-table", "description": "Every European regulator's action on Polymarket and Kalshi, dated and sourced: 15 jurisdictions, ten blocking orders, one penalty, one licensing regime. Six of the ten blocks are not applied by Polymarket itself, and only Spain and France have network tests, where 48% and 82% of them did not load.", "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-markets-europe-regulation-tracker", "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-markets-europe-regulation-tracker#next", "publishedAt": "2026-10-19", "modifiedAt": "2026-10-19", "version": "23c44b014489335830c7aad2b5b7c7e7ab7724332b436aff96fb2923ce60a98f", "isLive": false, "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. A dated record of public documents and press reports, read to 19 October 2026, with the regulators' own written answers to Vultax where they exist. Rows marked reported rest on press coverage. Network measurements are OONI volunteers' tests and show interference, not a legal status. Nothing here is legal advice.", "downloads": { "json": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-markets-europe-regulation-tracker/data.json?dataset=next-table", "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-markets-europe-regulation-tracker/data.csv?dataset=next-table" } } ] }