# World Series 2026 Odds: Brewers 62%, Rays 38%, After the Dodgers Led 264 of 271 Days
The Milwaukee Brewers are 62.1% to beat the Tampa Bay Rays in the 2026 World Series on Polymarket, against 2.2% on 1 February. The Dodgers led the market on 264 of its 271 days and were swept. In 2025 the Dodgers fell to 10.5% in Game 7 and won.
Canonical URL: https://vultax.com/research/world-series-2026-odds-polymarket
Author: [Vultax Research](https://vultax.com/editorial-policy)
Published: 2026-10-21
Last public revision: 2026-10-21
AI-assisted drafting, research and editing. Published by OmniOS OÜ. [How we use AI](https://vultax.com/editorial-policy#ai)
Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. A reading of public market prices at the stated times, not a forecast by Vultax and not advice to trade.
## Key figures
- Milwaukee Brewers, 2026 champion price: 62.1% — Polymarket, 12:00 UTC on 20 October 2026, three days before Game 1. 2.2% on 1 February
- Tampa Bay Rays, 2026 champion price: 37.7% — After winning the American League pennant. 32.0% before Game 6 and 0.9% on 1 February
- Days the Dodgers led the 2026 market: 264 of 271 — From 22 January 2026. The Brewers swept them in the National League series
- Dodgers at their low point in Game 7 of 2025: 10.5% — Polymarket series price at 03:14 UTC on 2 November 2025, Blue Jays 89.7%. The Dodgers won 5–4 in 11 innings
## The short answer
The Milwaukee Brewers are 62.1% to win the 2026 World Series on Polymarket and the Tampa Bay Rays 37.7%. The Rays won the American League pennant on 19 October, beating the Cleveland Guardians 7–3 in Game 6 to take the series 4–2. The prices were read at 12:00 UTC on 20 October 2026, three days before Game 1 in Milwaukee on Friday 23 October.
For most of the year this market belonged to the Los Angeles Dodgers. They were 27.0% on 1 February and led on 264 of its 271 days; the Brewers swept them 4–0 in the National League series. On 1 February the Brewers were 2.2%, 13th of 30 teams, the Rays 0.9% and the Guardians 3.3%.
A series price moves hard within a single game. In Game 7 of 2025 the Dodgers fell to 10.5% at 03:14 UTC and won 5–4 in 11 innings. This page reads the public price record; it is not a forecast of the winner.
## World Series 2026 odds on Polymarket
The Brewers reached the World Series with a 4–0 sweep of the Dodgers in the National League series, their first since 1982. The Rays beat the Guardians 4–2 for their third pennant, after 2008 and 2020. Neither team has won a World Series, so 2026 will have a first-time champion. At 13:00 UTC on 19 October, before Game 6, the pennant market had the Rays at 80.6% and the Guardians at 18.2%.
Before the pennant was settled, the two markets together gave a head-to-head estimate. Dividing a team's champion price by its pennant price gives its chance to win the World Series once there: 39.7% for the Rays before Game 6, which put the Brewers at about 60% against them. With the pennant decided, the champion market prices that matchup directly: 62.1% for the Brewers. The estimate from two separate markets was 1.8 points away.
Polymarket Yes prices at 12:00 UTC on 20 October 2026 and at 13:00 UTC on 19 October 2026, before Game 6 of the American League series: each market's last minute price at or before that time. Live prices are in the MLB odds room.
| Team | Win the World Series, 20 Oct | Win the World Series, before Game 6 | Win the AL pennant, before Game 6 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 62.1% | 61.9% | NL champion |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 37.7% | 32.0% | 80.6% |
| Cleveland Guardians | Out | 6.4% | 18.2% |
[CSV](https://vultax.com/research/world-series-2026-odds-polymarket/data.csv?dataset=section-world-series-2026-odds-on-polymarket-table), [JSON](https://vultax.com/research/world-series-2026-odds-polymarket/data.json?dataset=section-world-series-2026-odds-on-polymarket-table)
## The 2026 market: a season of Dodgers
Polymarket's 2026 champion market opened on 21 January. On 1 February the Dodgers were 27.0%, more than twice the next team, the New York Yankees at 11.5%. They peaked at 43.5% and were still 29.5% on 1 October, when the Brewers were 16.9%.
The lead in the market changed hands only once all year, on 13 October, in the middle of the Brewers' sweep. The Brewers have risen from 2.2% to 62.1%, and the Rays from 0.9% to 37.7%.
### 2026 World Series champion price, four teams
Polymarket, Monday readings, 26 January to 19 October 2026. Percent.
| Category | Milwaukee Brewers (%) | Los Angeles Dodgers (%) | Tampa Bay Rays (%) | Cleveland Guardians (%) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 26 Jan | 2 | 28 | 2.4 | 3.1 |
| 2 Feb | 2.1 | 22.5 | 0.8 | 2 |
| 9 Feb | 1.9 | 23.5 | 0.4 | 1.3 |
| 16 Feb | 2.5 | 26 | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| 23 Feb | 2.8 | 24 | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| 2 Mar | 2 | 27.5 | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| 9 Mar | 1.9 | 28.5 | 0.6 | 1.5 |
| 16 Mar | 1.8 | 28.5 | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| 23 Mar | 2.5 | 27.5 | 0.8 | 1 |
| 30 Mar | 3.4 | 25.5 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| 6 Apr | 3.1 | 27 | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| 13 Apr | 2.9 | 27.5 | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| 20 Apr | 2.8 | 29.5 | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| 27 Apr | 2.3 | 29.5 | 1.6 | 2.4 |
| 4 May | 3.6 | 28.5 | 1.9 | 2.2 |
| 11 May | 3.1 | 26.5 | 3.1 | 2 |
| 18 May | 3.8 | 25.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 |
| 25 May | 5.2 | 25.5 | 5.7 | 4 |
| 1 Jun | 5 | 25.5 | 4.2 | 3.8 |
| 8 Jun | 4.6 | 29.5 | 3.7 | 3.1 |
| 15 Jun | 5.5 | 28.5 | 3.6 | 3.2 |
| 22 Jun | 7.6 | 29 | 3.1 | 2.8 |
| 29 Jun | 8.4 | 29.5 | 3.4 | 2.4 |
| 6 Jul | 10.2 | 28.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 |
| 13 Jul | 9.6 | 28.5 | 5.4 | 2.1 |
| 20 Jul | 8.9 | 29.5 | 5 | 2.4 |
| 27 Jul | 9 | 33.5 | 5.4 | 2.9 |
| 3 Aug | 9.5 | 38.5 | 5.4 | 1.2 |
| 10 Aug | 8.3 | 39.5 | 7.9 | 1.1 |
| 17 Aug | 8.5 | 33.5 | 7.7 | 0.7 |
| 24 Aug | 12 | 32.5 | 7.2 | 1.2 |
| 31 Aug | 12.7 | 30.5 | 7.4 | 1.8 |
| 7 Sep | 13.3 | 32.5 | 8.2 | 1.9 |
| 14 Sep | 16.1 | 31.5 | 9.2 | 2.6 |
| 21 Sep | 15.3 | 30.5 | 9.6 | 3.6 |
| 28 Sep | 16.3 | 29.5 | 10.7 | 5.5 |
| 5 Oct | 22.7 | 36.5 | 12.3 | 4.5 |
| 12 Oct | 25.7 | 43 | 22.3 | 9.6 |
| 19 Oct | 63 | 6.5 | 30.7 | 6.1 |
[CSV](https://vultax.com/research/world-series-2026-odds-polymarket/data.csv?dataset=section-the-2026-market-a-season-of-dodgers-chart), [JSON](https://vultax.com/research/world-series-2026-odds-polymarket/data.json?dataset=section-the-2026-market-a-season-of-dodgers-chart)
## 2025: the Game 7 the Dodgers won from 10.5%
The Dodgers were 69.0% before Game 1 in Toronto. The price then moved with every game: down after the Blue Jays won Game 1, up after Games 2 and 3, down to 32.5% after Toronto won Games 4 and 5, back to 56.5% after Game 6.
In Game 7 the Dodgers were 56.5% at 00:00 UTC. At 03:14 UTC they were 10.5%, with the Blue Jays at 89.7%. They won 5–4 in 11 innings, and their price reached 99% at 04:18 UTC.
Polymarket series prices before Game 1 (22:00 UTC on 24 October) and at 12:00 UTC on the day after each game. Results from the series record.
| After | Result | Dodgers | Blue Jays |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Before Game 1 | Series starts | 69.0% | 31.1% |
| Game 1, 24 Oct | Blue Jays 11–4 | 54.5% | 46.0% |
| Game 2, 25 Oct | Dodgers 5–1 | 68.5% | 31.7% |
| Game 3, 27 Oct | Dodgers 6–5 in 18 innings | 79.5% | 20.0% |
| Game 4, 28 Oct | Blue Jays 6–2 | 63.5% | 36.5% |
| Game 5, 29 Oct | Blue Jays 6–1 | 32.5% | 67.3% |
| Game 6, 31 Oct | Dodgers 3–1 | 56.5% | 43.8% |
| Game 7, 1 Nov | Dodgers 5–4 in 11 innings | Won | Lost |
[CSV](https://vultax.com/research/world-series-2026-odds-polymarket/data.csv?dataset=section-2025-the-game-7-the-dodgers-won-from-10-5-table), [JSON](https://vultax.com/research/world-series-2026-odds-polymarket/data.json?dataset=section-2025-the-game-7-the-dodgers-won-from-10-5-table)
### Dodgers and Blue Jays during Game 7 of the 2025 World Series
Polymarket series price, every 5 minutes, 00:00 to 04:25 UTC on 2 November 2025. Percent.
| Category | Los Angeles Dodgers (%) | Toronto Blue Jays (%) |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 00:00 | 56.5 | 43.9 |
| 00:05 | 56.5 | 44.3 |
| 00:10 | 54.5 | 45 |
| 00:15 | 56 | 44.5 |
| 00:20 | 51.5 | 46.1 |
| 00:25 | 49 | 51.5 |
| 00:30 | 55.5 | 44.7 |
| 00:35 | 48 | 52.5 |
| 00:40 | 46 | 54.6 |
| 00:45 | 47 | 53.6 |
| 00:50 | 51 | 49.4 |
| 00:55 | 47.5 | 52.7 |
| 01:00 | 45.5 | 53 |
| 01:05 | 19.5 | 80.7 |
| 01:10 | 21.5 | 78.9 |
| 01:15 | 28.5 | 71.7 |
| 01:20 | 31.5 | 69.3 |
| 01:25 | 27.5 | 70.7 |
| 01:30 | 23.5 | 77.1 |
| 01:35 | 24 | 76.6 |
| 01:40 | 26 | 74 |
| 01:45 | 29.5 | 71 |
| 01:50 | 22.5 | 78 |
| 01:55 | 22.5 | 77.6 |
| 02:00 | 24.5 | 76.3 |
| 02:05 | 38 | 63 |
| 02:10 | 33.5 | 66 |
| 02:15 | 30 | 69.9 |
| 02:20 | 26 | 74.1 |
| 02:25 | 20.5 | 79.9 |
| 02:30 | 29.5 | 68.6 |
| 02:35 | 13.5 | 86.2 |
| 02:40 | 17.5 | 83.5 |
| 02:45 | 17 | 82.5 |
| 02:50 | 18 | 81.8 |
| 02:55 | 14.5 | 84.5 |
| 03:00 | 14 | 85.5 |
| 03:05 | 15.5 | 84.7 |
| 03:10 | 21 | 80.4 |
| 03:15 | 10.5 | 89.7 |
| 03:20 | 43.5 | 57.4 |
| 03:25 | 42 | 58.1 |
| 03:30 | 43.5 | 57.2 |
| 03:35 | 21 | 78.5 |
| 03:40 | 52 | 46.5 |
| 03:45 | 52 | 49.1 |
| 03:50 | 59.5 | 40.8 |
| 03:55 | 41 | 58.1 |
| 04:00 | 42.5 | 56.4 |
| 04:05 | 55.5 | 44.1 |
| 04:10 | 78 | 21.4 |
| 04:15 | 61.5 | 34.1 |
| 04:20 | 99.5 | 0.1 |
| 04:25 | 99.5 | 0.1 |
[CSV](https://vultax.com/research/world-series-2026-odds-polymarket/data.csv?dataset=section-2025-the-game-7-the-dodgers-won-from-10-5-chart), [JSON](https://vultax.com/research/world-series-2026-odds-polymarket/data.json?dataset=section-2025-the-game-7-the-dodgers-won-from-10-5-chart)
## 2024: the favourite from the first week
Polymarket's 2024 market opened in late August with the Dodgers on top at 20.0%. They led on 55 of its 65 days and were 54.0% against the Yankees' 46.0% before Game 1.
Their lowest point came in that first game, 43.0% at 02:16 UTC on 26 October; they won it and the series in five. The price reached 99% at 03:52 UTC on 31 October.
## The favourite at each stage
In both finished years the team on top at the start won. Two seasons are too few for a rate, and the 2026 favourite at the start did not reach the final.
The start is the market's third day of prices: 30 August 2024, 1 March 2025 and 24 January 2026. Before Game 1 is 22:00 UTC on the day of the opener; for 2026, 12:00 UTC on 20 October 2026.
| Season | Favourite at the start | Favourite before Game 1 | Champion |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2024 | Dodgers 20.0% | Dodgers 54.0% | Dodgers |
| 2025 | Dodgers 24.0% | Dodgers 69.0% | Dodgers |
| 2026 | Dodgers 27.0% | Brewers 62.1%, 20 Oct | Not decided |
[CSV](https://vultax.com/research/world-series-2026-odds-polymarket/data.csv?dataset=favourites-table), [JSON](https://vultax.com/research/world-series-2026-odds-polymarket/data.json?dataset=favourites-table)
## How to read a World Series price
The same reading, what a price did before a result, is applied to award markets in our [Ballon d'Or study](https://vultax.com/research/ballon-dor-2026-odds-polymarket).
- A series price is the chance to win four games, not the next one. 62.1% for the Brewers means the market expects them to lose the series about 4 times in 10.
- One game moves the series price a long way. In 2025 a single loss took the Dodgers from 63.5% to 32.5%.
- Before the pennant is settled, a champion price mixes two questions: who reaches the final and who wins it. Dividing by the pennant price separates them.
- A closed market keeps its last price. A team that is out shows a small number, not zero, until the market settles.
## Method and limits
Prices are Polymarket's Yes prices from its public price-history API: minute values for the 2024 and 2025 World Series and for 19 and 20 October 2026, daily values for everything else. A team leads on a day when it has the highest daily price.
The head-to-head figures divide two prices from separate markets; their sum does not have to be exactly 100%, so treat them as approximate. Game results come from the series record, not from the market.
This page will be updated after the World Series. It reads public prices; it is not a forecast by Vultax and not advice to trade.
## Questions
### Who is favoured to win the 2026 World Series?
The Milwaukee Brewers, at 62.1% on Polymarket at 12:00 UTC on 20 October 2026, against 37.7% for the Tampa Bay Rays.
### Who won the 2026 American League pennant?
The Tampa Bay Rays. They beat the Cleveland Guardians 7–3 in Game 6 on 19 October to take the series 4–2. At 13:00 UTC on 19 October, before Game 6, Polymarket had the Rays at 80.6% to win the pennant.
### When does the 2026 World Series start?
Game 1 is on Friday 23 October 2026 at the Brewers' ballpark in Milwaukee, against the Tampa Bay Rays. The Brewers host the first two games because they had the better regular-season record.
### What were the Dodgers' lowest odds in Game 7 of the 2025 World Series?
10.5% on Polymarket at 03:14 UTC on 2 November 2025, with the Blue Jays at 89.7%. The Dodgers won 5–4 in 11 innings.
### Did the Polymarket favourite win the last two World Series?
Yes. The Dodgers were favoured from the start in 2024 and 2025 and won both. In 2026 they led the market on 264 of 271 days and were swept in the National League series.
## Revision notes
- 2026-10-21: Published before Game 1, with Polymarket's prices read at 12:00 UTC on 20 October 2026, after the Rays won the American League pennant.
## Sources and methodology
- [Polymarket — MLB World Series Champion 2026](https://polymarket.com/event/mlb-world-series-champion-2026) — Prices read at 12:00 UTC on 20 October 2026 and at 13:00 UTC on 19 October 2026.
- [Polymarket — MLB: 2026 American League Champion](https://polymarket.com/event/mlb-2026-american-league-champion) — Pennant prices at 13:00 UTC on 19 October 2026, before Game 6, used for the head-to-head estimate.
- [Polymarket — World Series Champion 2025](https://polymarket.com/event/world-series-champion-2025) — Settled 2 November 2025.
- [Polymarket — World Series Champion 2024](https://polymarket.com/event/world-series-champion-2024) — Settled 31 October 2024.
- [Polymarket API — price history](https://docs.polymarket.com/) — Minute and daily Yes prices from the CLOB API. Vultax computed the readings.
- [Wikipedia — 2025 World Series](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_World_Series) — Game dates and results.
- [CBS Sports — Rays advance to the World Series to face the Brewers](https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/rays-guardians-score-live-updates-alcs-game-6/live/) — 19 October 2026: the Rays won Game 6 7–3 at Tropicana Field; their pennants of 2008 and 2020; neither team has won a World Series.
- [Bleacher Report — Brewers set to host Game 1 of the World Series](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/25512065-bucks-change-scheduled-tipoff-time-vs-bulls-brewers-set-host-game-1-world-series) — 16 October 2026: Game 1 on 23 October in Milwaukee.
- [NBC New York — Brewers' history in World Series](https://www.nbcnewyork.com/mlb/milwaukee-brewers-world-series-history/6560027/) — The 4–0 NLCS sweep, the 1982 appearance and the 23 October start.