Public data reference
Fed Decision Tracker: Market Prices and Sources
Follow the Fed meetings already covered by Vultax’s prediction pack, with linked Federal Reserve releases from the existing event feed.
01 Market snapshot
Fed contract prices: Polymarket and Kalshi
The matching contract rows already assembled by Vultax’s prediction pack.
ObservedObserved 9 rowsWithin this table’s source-time freshness window; prices can change between observations.
| Meeting | Decision date | Contract | Polymarket | Kalshi | PM − Kalshi (percentage points) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September | 2026-09-16 | 25 bp increase | 79.5% | 79.5% | 0 |
| September | 2026-09-16 | No change | 20.5% | 20.5% | 0 |
| September | 2026-09-16 | 25 bp decrease | 0.35% | 0.5% | -0.20 |
| October | 2026-10-28 | 25 bp increase | 37.5% | 37.5% | 0 |
| October | 2026-10-28 | No change | 61.5% | 60.5% | 1 |
| October | 2026-10-28 | 25 bp decrease | 2.05% | 2.5% | -0.50 |
| December | 2026-12-09 | 25 bp increase | 55.5% | 54.5% | 1 |
| December | 2026-12-09 | No change | 39.5% | 45.5% | -6 |
| December | 2026-12-09 | 25 bp decrease | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1 |
Scroll to see all columns.
CoverageOnly the Fed meeting/contract combinations shown. Prices are percentages of a $1 payout; they are not forecasts of guaranteed outcomes.
Polymarket Gamma prices and Kalshi bid/ask midpoint or last-price fallback come from the source pack. They are collected sequentially.
Contract wording, settlement terms, fees and available depth must be checked at each venue. A displayed gap is not an executable arbitrage return.
The pack’s asOf records the parent Fed-pack refresh, not an exchange tick timestamp. Failed parent components can retain older observations.
02 Source index
Federal Reserve source releases
Headline links from the existing source feed. Original articles remain with their publishers.
ObservedObserved 6 rowsFeed snapshot retrieved by the source; individual items keep their publication dates.
CoverageThe configured feed’s latest returned items. Pack refresh time and each item’s publication time are distinct; the pack can retain earlier items on upstream failure.
Headlines are source statements, not independently verified Vultax findings. Follow the original source for context.
Unparseable source dates remain unavailable; no dates are invented from the time of the page request.
Take this into the workspace
Event monitors are available. Some sources may need a refresh; check the status shown in each room.
Published research behind this page
Dated write-ups of the same sources. A figure in a study describes the window it was written about, not the snapshot above.
Compare September 16 Fed decision odds on Polymarket and Kalshi, with price history, venue differences and Vultax's analysis of trading activity.
Coverage and methodology
- Public tables mirror existing Vultax source packs. They do not include account data, private watchlists or the complete app dataset.
- Source time, coverage and limitations apply to each table. Missing values are unavailable, not zero.