Public data reference
Polymarket vs Kalshi: Prediction Market Prices
Read matched Fed-contract prices from the prediction comparison Vultax already refreshes, with event dates and source coverage.
01 Market snapshot
Fed contract prices: Polymarket and Kalshi
The matching contract rows already assembled by Vultax’s prediction pack.
ObservedObserved 9 rowsWithin this table’s source-time freshness window; prices can change between observations.
| Meeting | Decision date | Contract | Polymarket | Kalshi | PM − Kalshi (percentage points) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September | 2026-09-16 | 25 bp increase | 79.5% | 79.5% | 0 |
| September | 2026-09-16 | No change | 20.5% | 20.5% | 0 |
| September | 2026-09-16 | 25 bp decrease | 0.35% | 0.5% | -0.20 |
| October | 2026-10-28 | 25 bp increase | 37.5% | 37.5% | 0 |
| October | 2026-10-28 | No change | 61.5% | 60.5% | 1 |
| October | 2026-10-28 | 25 bp decrease | 1.9% | 2.5% | -0.60 |
| December | 2026-12-09 | 25 bp increase | 55.5% | 54.5% | 1 |
| December | 2026-12-09 | No change | 39.5% | 45.5% | -6 |
| December | 2026-12-09 | 25 bp decrease | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1 |
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CoverageOnly the Fed meeting/contract combinations shown. Prices are percentages of a $1 payout; they are not forecasts of guaranteed outcomes.
Polymarket Gamma prices and Kalshi bid/ask midpoint or last-price fallback come from the source pack. They are collected sequentially.
Contract wording, settlement terms, fees and available depth must be checked at each venue. A displayed gap is not an executable arbitrage return.
The pack’s asOf records the parent Fed-pack refresh, not an exchange tick timestamp. Failed parent components can retain older observations.
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Published research behind this page
Dated write-ups of the same sources. A figure in a study describes the window it was written about, not the snapshot above.
Original Vultax research: in an experimental test, a calibrated fair-value model beat raw Polymarket prices by ~9.6% on held-out Brier score. Where the favorite-longshot effect lives, what the model can honestly flag, and why it still isn't a trading edge.
Compare September 16 Fed decision odds on Polymarket and Kalshi, with price history, venue differences and Vultax's analysis of trading activity.
Coverage and methodology
- Public tables mirror existing Vultax source packs. They do not include account data, private watchlists or the complete app dataset.
- Source time, coverage and limitations apply to each table. Missing values are unavailable, not zero.