Is Polymarket Legal in the US? Where Prediction Markets Stand in 2026

Two different exchanges carry the Polymarket name. Polymarket US runs on QCX, a CFTC-designated contract market that Polymarket bought for $112 million in July 2025, and it has been opening to American users since 3 December 2025, sports first. The original international exchange at polymarket.com is the one the CFTC fined $1.4 million in January 2022 for offering event contracts without registration, and it remains closed to U.S. traders; in April 2026 CoinDesk reported that the company was asking the Commission to let Americans back in.

Federal registration answers the federal question, not the state one. Whether a state can still treat a sports event contract as unlicensed betting has split the federal appeals courts: the Third Circuit sided with Kalshi against New Jersey on 6 April 2026, the Ninth Circuit with Nevada on 28 August and the Sixth Circuit with Ohio and Tennessee on 25 September. Three petitions now ask the Supreme Court to decide it; the Court's new term opens on 5 October and the first response is due on 14 October. States are not waiting: New York sued Polymarket US on 24 September.

This page records what courts and regulators have said up to 27 September 2026, including where things stand in California and Texas. Every case behind it, with its docket and latest entry, is in the prediction-market lawsuit tracker.

Most coverage uses "Polymarket" for both. They are separate exchanges with separate legal footing, fee schedules and market lists, and only one of them is open to U.S. residents.

Download table figures:CSVJSON with sources

State gaming regulators are not objecting to a contract on the Fed or an election. They object to contracts that settle on the result of a game, because in their view those are sports wagers that need a state licence and pay state tax. Kalshi's position is that a contract listed on a CFTC-designated exchange is a swap under the Commodity Exchange Act, which only the CFTC regulates.

Kalshi is the party in most of these cases because it launched sports contracts nationwide first; the same arguments reach Polymarket US and any other CFTC-registered venue that lists them. The table lists the decisions and filings that set the current map. Below the appeals courts, the United States and the CFTC have sued eight states since 2 April 2026, and judges granted injunctions in Arizona on 5 May and Minnesota on 27 July and refused one in Wisconsin on 28 July. All 49 cases Vultax follows, from these rulings to class actions and two insider-trading prosecutions, are in the prediction-market lawsuit tracker.

Download table figures:CSVJSON with sources

• Where the split comes from - the Third Circuit read the Commodity Exchange Act as covering sports contracts on a registered exchange; the Ninth and Sixth Circuits read state gaming law as still applying to them.
• Why the Supreme Court matters - a split between federal circuits is the usual reason the Court takes a case. Its October Term opens on 5 October; the three petitions had not been distributed for a conference by 25 September, so none can be taken up at the 28 September opening conference. Until the Court acts, the same contract can be lawful to offer in one state and restricted in the next.

The Commission's position is that federal registration governs. On 6 February 2026 it withdrew a 2024 proposal that would have barred some event contracts, saying it was doing so "to reconsider them in light of various forms of state regulatory actions and litigation concerning the Commission's exclusive jurisdiction over event contract derivatives." On 12 March it published an advance notice of proposed rulemaking on prediction markets.

On 10 June 2026 it proposed a replacement: a three-step test that asks whether a contract is an event contract in an excluded commodity, whether it involves terrorism, assassination, war, gaming or unlawful activity, and whether it is contrary to the public interest. Comments closed on 27 July, according to Holland & Knight; None had been adopted by 25 September. Chairman Michael Selig, sworn in on 22 December 2025, said the Commission "will protect the integrity of our regulated markets without standing in the way of responsible innovation."

Gaming is one of the listed activities. A final rule could therefore leave the Commission deciding for itself which sports contracts are in the public interest, which would narrow the state fight without ending it.

On 22 September the Commission's Division of Market Oversight warned in a staff advisory that "mention" contracts, which settle on whether someone says a word, carry a heightened risk of manipulation. No CFTC action naming Polymarket was announced in September; CNBC reported in June that the Commission was investigating the company.

Polymarket's U.S. return put it into the same fight. The actions below run from January to September 2026; the Illinois, Missouri and New York documents are the states' own, and Nevada's dates are from the court record.

• Illinois - the Illinois Gaming Board sent Polymarket a cease-and-desist letter dated 27 January 2026, alleging unlicensed sports wagering.
• Tennessee - the state's Sports Wagering Council sent cease-and-desist letters to Kalshi, Polymarket and Crypto.com, which The Block reported as Polymarket's first at state level.
• Nevada - the state's Gaming Control Board sued Polymarket's companies on 16 January 2026 and won a 14-day temporary restraining order in state court on 29 January; a federal court sent the case back to state court on 2 March, and the Ninth Circuit refused Polymarket a stay on 21 May.
• Wisconsin and Kentucky - both states sued Polymarket US in state court; Polymarket US removed the cases to federal court on 24 April and 18 June 2026, and the states' motions to send them back are pending.
• Michigan - Polymarket US sued Michigan officials to stop enforcement of state gambling law; a federal judge refused it a preliminary injunction on 17 June 2026, and the appeal is being briefed.
• New Mexico - Polymarket went on the offensive and sued the state in federal court on 2 July 2026.
• Minnesota - a federal judge barred Minnesota on 27 July 2026 from enforcing its prediction-market law against CFTC-registered exchanges, in suits brought by the United States and the CFTC, Kalshi and Polymarket US.
• Baltimore - the City sued Polymarket US and its parent on 13 August 2026 under its consumer-protection ordinance; the case was removed to federal court on 17 August.
• Missouri - Attorney General Catherine Hanaway sent cease-and-desist letters in mid-September 2026 to Polymarket, Kalshi, Crypto.com, Novig, Underdog and Robinhood, calling their sports contracts unlicensed sports wagering.
• New York - on 24 September 2026 Attorney General Letitia James and Governor Kathy Hochul sued QCX LLC, which trades as Polymarket US, alleging an illegal gambling operation that let 18- to 20-year-olds bet on sports. Polymarket sued New York officials in Manhattan federal court the same day, calling the claim "squarely foreclosed by federal law", Insurance Journal reported.

polymarket.com is closed to Californians, as it is to every U.S. user: Polymarket's list of restricted countries names the United States as a whole. Polymarket US names no restricted state in its app terms, and guides published by CBS Sports and Sports Illustrated on 24 September 2026 describe it and Kalshi as open to California residents, sports contracts included. Sports betting itself is not legal in California; the Ninth Circuit opened its 16 September opinion by saying so.

The one California ruling so far is about tribal land. In Blue Lake Rancheria v. Kalshi, filed in the Northern District of California in July 2025 (No. 3:25-cv-06162), California tribes argued that Kalshi's sports contracts are illegal Class III gaming when entered from their reservations. The district court refused an injunction in November 2025. On 16 September 2026 a unanimous Ninth Circuit panel (No. 25-7504) held that the tribes are likely to win under the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act, that the Commodity Exchange Act's exclusive jurisdiction does not reach those contracts, and sent the case back for the injunction decision. Bloomberg Law reported that Kalshi told the court on 24 September it had switched off its markets on three tribes' lands.

The state has joined the fight in court without suing anyone. Attorney General Rob Bonta signed the attorneys general's brief supporting the tribes, and in June 2026 joined a 37-state brief backing Ohio against Kalshi, which his office called California's seventh such filing. In the legislature, AB 2617 would bar offering prediction-market wagering to minors and has sat in committee since 17 March 2026; AB 1840 would bar some officials, employees and lobbyists from trading prediction-market contracts on material nonpublic information. Governor Gavin Newsom signed an executive order on 27 March 2026 barring his appointees from using nonpublic state information to profit on prediction markets.

Texas has no legal sports betting, and the Texas Tribune notes that its Penal Code makes election betting illegal. Even so, no Texas restriction on Polymarket US or Kalshi has been published: polymarket.com is closed to Texans as to all U.S. users, Polymarket US names no restricted state, and Covers and the Texas Tribune describe both apps taking Texas customers, sports included.

The state has not gone to court. Attorney General Ken Paxton is not on the attorneys general's brief in the California tribal case, and CNBC reported that Texas was one of five states that did not sign the attorneys general's July letter telling the CFTC it lacks authority over sports contracts. The Texas Lottery Commission, sometimes named as the regulator, no longer exists: SB 3070 dissolved it on 1 September 2025 and moved its work to the Department of Licensing and Regulation.

The legislature is where Texas is moving. In March 2026 Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick gave the Senate State Affairs Committee an interim charge, "Closing Gambling Loopholes", to study prediction markets and recommend action. The committee, chaired by Senator Bryan Hughes, heard Kalshi, the American Gaming Association, the Kickapoo Traditional Tribe of Texas and others on 15 September 2026; the next regular session opens in January 2027.

A summary of where things stand, drawn from the decisions above.

• Federally registered venues operate under federal law - Kalshi and Polymarket US are CFTC-designated contract markets, and the Commission's chairman has argued that federal registration should govern nationally.
• polymarket.com is not open to U.S. persons - that follows from the 2022 order and Polymarket's own restrictions, which name the whole United States; Vultax found no report that the CFTC had granted the company's April request to reopen it.
• Sports contracts depend on your state - Nevada won at the Ninth Circuit and Ohio and Tennessee at the Sixth, a Washington court has ordered Kalshi to stop offering them there, and Massachusetts won an injunction; New York, Wisconsin and Kentucky are suing Polymarket US; on three California tribes' lands Kalshi has switched its markets off; elsewhere, including the rest of California and Texas, they are offered while the cases continue.
• Other contracts are less contested - Fed, economic and election contracts are not what the state cases are about, though the CFTC's pending rule could still limit some event categories.
• Nothing is settled until the Supreme Court acts - three petitions are pending and none had been scheduled for a conference by 25 September; if the Court takes a case, a decision would come no earlier than its 2026–27 term.

Legal facts were read on 12, 25 and 27 September 2026 from court opinions and dockets (the Supreme Court and the Ninth Circuit), state attorney-general, governor and legislature pages, the CFTC's orders and press releases, company announcements and documentation, law-firm client alerts and press reports. Items marked reported, or attributed to a publication, rest on press coverage that could not be checked against the court record from our environment; several court and venue websites block automated reading.

The court rows were checked on 27 September 2026 against the court's own documents and dockets, as set out in the lawsuit tracker; rows still marked reported rest on press coverage.

Challenge a line at [email protected]; material changes are logged in the changelog.