House Bot, paper research record

Can a bot learn when to stay out?

Last updated Changelog

  1. Signal layer revised. Execution refined.

While collection is running, House Bot reads Polymarket's Fed decision order books every minute and decides every ten minutes whether a trade clears its costs. A fixed momentum rule and uninvested cash are its controls on the same books, and each decision is published fifteen minutes after it is made. The desk below shows whether collection is running now.

Checking the recordCollection, checkingOldest source, checkingPublished record, checking, 15m delay
Model observing, trades gated
80¢85¢90¢95¢100¢14 Sept12:0015 Sept12:0016 Sept12:00100.0¢$9,995$10,000$10,005

September Fed, Hike 25 bp, 4hO 87.5¢H 100.0¢L 85.5¢C 100.0¢+12.5 pts

House Bot no recordMomentum no recordCash no recordforward record since 12 Sept 23:16 UTC

Polymarket ten-minute prices, UTC

The books House Bot reads

9 of 12 usable when recorded, 24 Oct 14:04 UTC

September Fedsource checking

bid depthbid, askask depth

  • Cut 25 bpmarket closed

    /

  • Holdmarket closed

    /

  • Hike 25 bpmarket closed

    /

October Fedsource checking

bid depthbid, askask depth

  • Cut 25 bp

    0.10¢ / 0.20¢

  • Hold

    94.0¢ / 95.0¢

  • Hike 25 bp

    5.0¢ / 6.0¢

December Fedsource checking

bid depthbid, askask depth

  • Cut 25 bp

    0.60¢ / 0.70¢

  • Hold

    21.0¢ / 22.0¢

  • Hike 25 bp

    73.0¢ / 75.0¢

January Fedsource checking

bid depthbid, askask depth

  • Cut 25 bp

    1.0¢ / 1.1¢

  • Hold

    67.0¢ / 69.0¢

  • Hike 25 bp

    28.0¢ / 29.0¢

Best bid and ask in cents with the dollar depth House Bot recorded on each side. Paper buys use asks and sells use bids from a later snapshot, with market fees and at most 10% of recorded depth.

Decisions, as they publish

  1. Momentum controlSeptember Fed, Hike 25 bpSkip, Market is closed
  2. Momentum controlSeptember Fed, Cut 25 bpSkip, Market is closed
  3. Momentum controlSeptember Fed, HoldSkip, Market is closed
  4. Momentum controlOctober Fed, Hike 25 bpSkip, Waiting for complete price history
  5. Momentum controlOctober Fed, Cut 25 bpSkip, Waiting for complete price history
  6. Momentum controlOctober Fed, HoldSkip, Waiting for complete price history
  7. Momentum controlJanuary Fed, HoldSkip, Waiting for complete price history
  8. Momentum controlJanuary Fed, Hike 25 bpSkip, Waiting for complete price history
  9. Momentum controlJanuary Fed, Cut 25 bpSkip, Waiting for complete price history
  10. Momentum controlDecember Fed, Cut 25 bpSkip, Waiting for complete price history
  11. Momentum controlDecember Fed, HoldSkip, Waiting for complete price history
  12. Momentum controlDecember Fed, Hike 25 bpSkip, Waiting for complete price history
  13. House BotSeptember Fed, Hike 25 bpSkip, Market is closed
  14. House BotSeptember Fed, Cut 25 bpSkip, Market is closed
  15. House BotSeptember Fed, HoldSkip, Market is closed
  16. House BotOctober Fed, Hike 25 bpSkip, Waiting for complete price history
  17. House BotOctober Fed, Cut 25 bpSkip, Waiting for complete price history
  18. House BotOctober Fed, HoldSkip, Waiting for complete price history
  19. House BotJanuary Fed, HoldSkip, Waiting for complete price history
  20. House BotJanuary Fed, Hike 25 bpSkip, Waiting for complete price history
  21. House BotJanuary Fed, Cut 25 bpSkip, Waiting for complete price history
  22. House BotDecember Fed, Cut 25 bpSkip, Waiting for complete price history
  23. House BotDecember Fed, HoldSkip, Waiting for complete price history
  24. House BotDecember Fed, Hike 25 bpSkip, Waiting for complete price history
  25. Momentum controlSeptember Fed, Hike 25 bpSkip, Market is closed
  26. Momentum controlSeptember Fed, Cut 25 bpSkip, Market is closed
  27. Momentum controlSeptember Fed, HoldSkip, Market is closed
  28. Momentum controlOctober Fed, Hike 25 bpSkip, Waiting for complete price history
  29. Momentum controlOctober Fed, Cut 25 bpSkip, Waiting for complete price history
  30. Momentum controlOctober Fed, HoldSkip, Waiting for complete price history
  31. Momentum controlJanuary Fed, HoldSkip, Waiting for complete price history
  32. Momentum controlJanuary Fed, Hike 25 bpSkip, Waiting for complete price history
  33. Momentum controlJanuary Fed, Cut 25 bpSkip, Waiting for complete price history
  34. Momentum controlDecember Fed, Cut 25 bpSkip, Waiting for complete price history
  35. Momentum controlDecember Fed, HoldSkip, Waiting for complete price history
  36. Momentum controlDecember Fed, Hike 25 bpSkip, Waiting for complete price history
  37. House BotSeptember Fed, Hike 25 bpSkip, Market is closed
  38. House BotSeptember Fed, Cut 25 bpSkip, Market is closed
  39. House BotSeptember Fed, HoldSkip, Market is closed
  40. House BotOctober Fed, Hike 25 bpSkip, Waiting for complete price history
  41. House BotOctober Fed, Cut 25 bpSkip, Waiting for complete price history
  42. House BotOctober Fed, HoldSkip, Waiting for complete price history
  43. House BotJanuary Fed, HoldSkip, Waiting for complete price history
  44. House BotJanuary Fed, Hike 25 bpSkip, Waiting for complete price history
  45. House BotJanuary Fed, Cut 25 bpSkip, Waiting for complete price history
  46. House BotDecember Fed, Cut 25 bpSkip, Waiting for complete price history
  47. House BotDecember Fed, HoldSkip, Waiting for complete price history
  48. House BotDecember Fed, Hike 25 bpSkip, Waiting for complete price history
  49. Momentum controlSeptember Fed, Hike 25 bpSkip, Market is closed
  50. Momentum controlSeptember Fed, Cut 25 bpSkip, Market is closed

Skipped trades are decisions too. Each record links to the input book and model used at that moment. Published ledger: 134,660 records, 37e8dce724dc1a8c5d5fa0bc571560911bef39e4fd01c58a704660ecc42e1102

Protocol house-research-2026-09-13-v1Public recordEvaluationProtocol