Track record

Forecasts frozen before the event. Scored after it.

Each one fixes its checkpoints and its scoring rule before the result is known and keeps the saved prices. A missed checkpoint stays missed. Nothing is rebuilt from later prices.

Next measurement27 Oct, 23:59 UTC, midterm scorecard, week-out checkpoint →

Next

  1. Midterm scorecard, week-out checkpoint
  2. FOMC decision, scored against prices locked 14 days to 1 hour out
  3. Midterm scorecard, primary checkpoint
  4. US midterm elections. 13,186 frozen contracts are scored after the vote
  5. Efficiency series, monthly run

Scored

  1. Midterm scorecard frozen: 13,186 contracts, hashed manifest
  2. Efficiency series, first run: bid sums 87¢, slope 0.91
  3. Nobel Peace Prize forecast scored after the announcement
  4. FOMC September decision scored, Brier 0.029

The series

All research →
Prediction markets5 min read

Polymarket 2026 midterm scorecard: 13,186 contracts frozen before the vote

Every Polymarket contract about the 2026 US midterms, frozen on 17 October: 13,186 contracts in 1,352 events, a hashed manifest, two price checkpoints and a Brier rule declared before the vote. In 402 of 507 races the favourite already trades at 90¢ or more.

Prediction markets5 min read

Polymarket Had the September Fed Hike at 87.5%: Every 2026 FOMC Decision, Scored

Polymarket priced the 16 September 25 bp hike at 87.5% a day and an hour before the statement, a five-outcome Brier score of 0.029. The same record now follows the 27–28 October meeting, with prices locked 14 days, 7 days, 24 hours and 1 hour out.

Prediction markets12 min read

Nobel Peace Prize 2026: Navi Pillay wins, and our frozen forecast is scored

The official 2026 winner is Navi Pillay. See the score of our forecast frozen before the announcement, the saved market checkpoints and the historical study of the 2025 pre-announcement move.

Prediction markets6 min read

Polymarket efficiency: two tests, updated monthly

On PredictIt, the bids on every outcome of a busy market added up to 110 to 125¢. On Polymarket the typical event adds up to 87¢, and long shots win more often than their price says. Two tests, rerun every month.

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