Europe record
What Europe has done about prediction markets, on the record.
44 recorded actions across 19 national jurisdictions, plus EU-level records, each kept with its date and its source. It reads from the published tracker and carries its cutoff.
This is a source-reviewed record as of 2026-10-19, not a real-time legal-status service. What an authority did, what a venue restricts itself, and what OONI's volunteers observed are kept as three separate facts. Where a market was not tested, that is marked unknown — never read as permitted.
Regulators on the record
9 authorities are on the record with us as of 2026-10-19, and counting. 5 published reports, below, are based on their written replies.
- MaltaMalta Gaming AuthoritySome prediction-market products may fit existing betting licences; individual applications remain confidential.
- GermanyGGLProceedings confirmed against Polymarket and Kalshi. Election bets cannot be licensed.
- SpainDGOJWhether Polymarket is blocked depends on your network. We measured it.
- CzechiaMinistry of Financekalshi.com is on the Czech blocklist. Providers block it from 15 October.
- LithuaniaGaming Control AuthorityPolymarket blocked, and other prediction markets now under review.
Browse the record
Filter by a country or a venue. Each entry keeps the authority, the original date, the evidence it rests on and a link to the source. A filtered view has its own address you can share. A venue filter shows the rows that name that venue — not a complete legal assessment for it.
Showing 44 of 44 recorded actions.
Gibraltar, Licensing AuthorityGibraltar
By 19 Oct 2026Register of authorised operators under regulation 10 lists Predict Street Limited, PMA01, and Wire Alternative Markets Limited, PMA02; the register publishes no dates
Not specified
Evidence: Published source; see citation
Gambling Division, register
Malta, Malta Gaming AuthorityMalta
17 Oct 2026Told Vultax it sees significant interest and that some prediction-market products may fit existing betting licences; declined to discuss individual applications
Not specified
Evidence: Published written response
Vultax, 17 Oct 2026
Malta, Malta Gaming AuthorityMalta
15 Oct 2026Extended Hacksaw Group's B2B critical gaming supply licence to Type 3 gaming services for a peer-to-peer prediction-markets platform, per Hacksaw's own announcement
Not specified
Evidence: Company announcement
Hacksaw Group release, 15 Oct 2026
Germany, GGLGermany
7 Oct 2026Confirmed to Vultax that administrative proceedings are open against Polymarket and Kalshi, both responded, geoblocking is in place, and no internet-provider block was requested
PolymarketKalshi
Evidence: Published written response
Vultax, 7 Oct 2026
United Kingdom, FCAUnited Kingdom
6 Oct 2026Markets executive director Simon Walls said the FCA is engaging with operators on their UK plans; the retail ban on binary options is unchanged
Not specified
Evidence: Reported; primary check pending
The Paypers, reporting the FCA
Spain, DGOJSpain
1 Oct 2026Told Vultax it cannot say whether it has ruled in the sanction case against Polymarket and Kalshi
PolymarketKalshi
Evidence: Published written response
Vultax, 2 Oct 2026
Lithuania, Gaming Control AuthorityLithuania
30 Sep 2026Told Vultax that Polymarket's operator had neither responded nor appealed, and that other prediction-market sites are under evaluation
Polymarket
Evidence: Published written response
Vultax, 30 Sep 2026
Czechia, Ministry of FinanceCzechia
30 Sep 2026Entered kalshi.com on the List of Unauthorised Internet Games; providers must block it within fifteen days
Kalshi
Evidence: Authority document
Ministry of Finance list, PDF
EU, ESMAEuropean Union
10 Sep 2026Risk report with a chapter on prediction markets: the largest platforms hold no EU authorisation, insider trading is a risk, and the platforms restrict some EU countries but not others
Not specified
Evidence: Authority document
ESMA TRV Risk Monitor No. 2, 2026
Lithuania, Gaming Control AuthorityLithuania
8 Sep 2026Announced the block of polymarket.com after a Regional Administrative Court ruling of 24 August; entry 2,204 on the list of illegal operators
Polymarket
Evidence: Authority document
Gaming Control Authority notice
Gibraltar, GovernmentGibraltar
13 Aug 2026Prediction Market (Fees and Duties) Regulations 2026, LN.2026/316, in operation: 30,000 pounds to apply, 100,000 pounds a year, and a general prediction market duty of 0.15 percent of commission charged
Not specified
Evidence: Authority document
Gibraltar Laws, LN.2026/316
Italy, TAR LazioItaly
5 Aug 2026Refused Polymarket's urgent application to suspend the block; the site stays inaccessible pending the merits
Polymarket
Evidence: Published source; see citation
Sky TG24
France, ANJFrance
16 Jul 2026The ANJ president ordered internet providers to block polymarket.com; the communiqué of 17 July cites a Paris prosecutor's investigation opened on 4 May into manipulated weather bets and the absence of identity checks; Polymarket said on 23 July it would challenge
Polymarket
Evidence: Published source; see citation
ANJ communiqué, 17 Jul 2026; CoinDesk, 23 Jul 2026
Gibraltar, GovernmentGibraltar
13 Jul 2026Prediction Market Regulations 2026, LN.2026/176, in force: an authorisation regime with a public register, separate from a gambling licence; two operators reported on the register
Not specified
Evidence: Authority document
Gibraltar Laws, LN.2026/176
Czechia, Ministry of FinanceCzechia
13 Jul 2026Entered polymarket.com on the List of Unauthorised Internet Games; the first providers were blocking it by 16 July
Polymarket
Evidence: Published source; see citation
Ministry of Finance, blocking page; Lupa.cz
Italy, ADMItaly
10 Jul 2026Decision 427985 ordered 293 more sites blocked by 27 July 2026, polymarket.com among them; the domain is number 3934 on the list read 19 October
Polymarket
Evidence: Authority document
ADM, decision of 10 Jul 2026; ADM list of blocked sites
EU, ESMAEuropean Union
3 Jul 2026Public statement: an event contract that is a financial instrument is a derivative, falls under the national bans on selling binary options to retail clients, and may be distributed only by an authorised investment firm
Not specified
Evidence: Authority document
ESMA public statement, PDF
Netherlands, KansspelautoriteitNetherlands
23 Jun 2026Rejected Polymarket's objection; the order under penalty and the 420,000 euro penalty stand; published 8 July; an appeal lies to the district court
Polymarket
Evidence: Authority document
Kansspelautoriteit, decision on objection, 23 Jun 2026
Switzerland, GespaSwitzerland
17 Jun 2026Media release joining the joint statement: prediction markets are gambling under Swiss law, providers from abroad without authorisation act illegally and access to their websites is blocked
Not specified
Evidence: Authority document
Gespa, 17 Jun 2026
Nine regulators: Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, SwitzerlandBelgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland
17 Jun 2026Joint statement at the opening of the World Cup warning about unlicensed prediction markets and pledging enforcement; the GGL told Vultax on 7 October that no joint measures had followed yet
Not specified
Evidence: Published source; see citation
EGR; Gaming Tech Law
Spain, DGOJSpain
26 May 2026Opened sanction proceedings against Polymarket and Kalshi and ordered internet providers to block both sites as a precaution, notified in the official gazette
PolymarketKalshi
Evidence: Published written response
Vultax, 2 Oct 2026
Netherlands, KansspelautoriteitNetherlands
19 May 2026Collection decision: the 420,000 euros forfeited after the 17 February deadline are to be collected; published 16 June
Polymarket
Evidence: Authority document
Kansspelautoriteit, case page
Greece, Hellenic Gaming CommissionGreece
9 Apr 2026Decision 11131 entered kalshi.com on the blacklist in its 50th edition; predictit.org followed in the 52nd edition by decision 18780 of 12 June 2026
Kalshi
Evidence: Authority document
Hellenic Gaming Commission, blacklist, 53rd edition
Romania, courtRomania
1 Apr 2026Refused to suspend the ONJN blacklisting of Polymarket while the case continues
Polymarket
Evidence: Reported; primary check pending
SiGMA, 6 Apr 2026; reported, court document not read
Gibraltar, Licensing AuthorityGibraltar
26 Mar 2026Predict Street Ltd licensed as a betting intermediary under the 2005 Act, reported from the licence register as the first prediction-market licence in Europe
Not specified
Evidence: Reported; primary check pending
iGaming Business, 1 Apr 2026; reported, licence document not read
United Kingdom, Gambling CommissionUnited Kingdom
Feb 2026Said prediction-market businesses could require a betting intermediary licence, since trading positions on event outcomes can resemble a betting exchange
Not specified
Evidence: Reported; primary check pending
The Paypers; the Commission's text not read
France, ANJFrance
24 Feb 2026Statement that prediction-market platforms are illegal in France and carry the risks of unlicensed gambling; names Polymarket and Kalshi, both geoblocked at the ANJ's request, and lists ten countries that have blocked Polymarket, Greece and Cyprus among them
PolymarketKalshi
Evidence: Authority document
ANJ, 24 Feb 2026
Cyprus, National Betting AuthorityCyprus
By 24 Feb 2026polymarket.com and kalshi.com on the blocking list that internet providers must apply under article 69 of the Betting Law of 2019; absent from an archived copy of 17 September 2025, present when read on 19 October 2026; the French ANJ named Cyprus as a blocking country on 24 February 2026
PolymarketKalshi
Evidence: Published source; see citation
National Betting Authority, blocking list; archived copy, 17 Sep 2025
National Betting Authority, blocking listarchived copy, 17 Sep 2025
Netherlands, KansspelautoriteitNetherlands
18 Feb 2026Found Polymarket still accessible the day after the 17 February deadline of its order under penalty; 420,000 euros forfeited, with 840,000 the maximum
Polymarket
Evidence: Published source; see citation
NOS; Gambling Insider NL
Romania, ONJNRomania
13 Feb 2026Decision 76 entered kalshi.com on the blacklist, number 4 in annex 1, on inspection report 7675 of 11 February
Kalshi
Evidence: Authority document
ONJN, decision 76 and annexes
Netherlands, KansspelautoriteitNetherlands
20 Jan 2026Order under penalty on Adventure One QSS Inc., decision 22310/01.370.802: stop giving the opportunity to gamble through polymarket.com within four weeks or forfeit 420,000 euros per week up to 840,000 euros; published 17 February
Polymarket
Evidence: Authority document
Kansspelautoriteit, decision of 20 Jan 2026
Italy, ADMItaly
By 18 Jan 2026kalshi.com on the list of blocked gambling sites in an archived copy dated 18 January 2026; the decision that added it has not been read
Kalshi
Evidence: Archived source
ADM list, archived copy
Portugal, SRIJPortugal
16 Jan 2026Ban: Polymarket is not authorised to offer betting in Portugal, and betting on political events is not permitted under national law
Polymarket
Evidence: Reported; primary check pending
Decrypt via Yahoo; the regulator's notice not read
Hungary, SZTFHHungary
16 Jan 2026Temporary order requiring internet providers to block polymarket.com and its subdomains
Polymarket
Evidence: Published source; see citation
Lexology, CMS note
Ukraine, National Commission for the Regulation of Electronic CommunicationsUkraine
10 Dec 2025Resolution 695 added polymarket.com to the register of blocked websites
Polymarket
Evidence: Reported; primary check pending
Decrypt via Yahoo; resolution not read
Switzerland, GespaSwitzerland
25 Nov 2025kalshi.com added to the blocking list; four Swiss-branded Polymarket domains followed on 25 August 2026
PolymarketKalshi
Evidence: Authority document
Gespa blocking list, 25 Aug 2026
Greece, Hellenic Gaming CommissionGreece
21 Nov 2025Decision 32917 entered polymarket.com, operator Adventure One QSS, on the blacklist of unlicensed providers in its 47th edition; internet providers must deny access under article 48 of Law 4002/2011
Polymarket
Evidence: Authority document
Hellenic Gaming Commission, blacklist, 53rd edition; the list as a spreadsheet
Hellenic Gaming Commission, blacklist, 53rd editionthe list as a spreadsheet
Romania, ONJNRomania
29 Oct 2025Decision 883 of the Supervisory Committee entered polymarket.com on the blacklist, number 19 in annex 1, on inspection report 75.111 of 24 October; providers must block access
Polymarket
Evidence: Authority document
ONJN, decision 883 and annexes
Germany, GGLGermany
5 Sep 2025Public warning naming Polymarket: paid bets on social and political events cannot be licensed in Germany
Polymarket
Evidence: Authority document
GGL warning
Poland, Ministry of FinancePoland
14 Apr 2025kalshi.com and www.kalshi.com entered in the register, entries 49208 and 49209; predictit.org and predictit.com followed on 12 May 2025
Kalshi
Evidence: Authority document
Register of domains
Belgium, KansspelcommissieBelgium
30 Jan 2025Added Polymarket to the blacklist after warnings went unanswered and asked the prosecutor to have access blocked
Polymarket
Evidence: Published source; see citation
CDC Gaming; SBC News
Poland, Ministry of FinancePoland
8 Jan 2025polymarket.com, www.polymarket.com and learn.polymarket.com entered in the register of domains used to offer gambling contrary to the Act, entries 47994 to 47996; providers must block within 48 hours of an entry and payment providers must stop within 30 days
Polymarket
Evidence: Authority document
Register of domains; Ministry of Finance, how the register works
Register of domainsMinistry of Finance, how the register works
France, ANJFrance
29 Nov 2024Communiqué: after the ANJ examined polymarket.com and approached Adventure One QSS Inc., the company introduced geoblocking that prevents play from France
Polymarket
Evidence: Authority document
ANJ, 29 Nov 2024
Switzerland, GespaSwitzerland
26 Nov 2024Blocking order for polymarket.com under article 86 of the Gambling Act; the domain has been on Gespa's blocking list since that date, which internet providers must apply
Polymarket
Evidence: Authority document
Gespa blocking list, 25 Aug 2026
Restrictions and observed access
Three different facts, kept in three columns: what the authority ordered, what Polymarket restricts itself, and what OONI's volunteers observed. A market with no tests is unknown, not open.
| Country | Regulator's order | Polymarket's own restriction |
|---|---|---|
| France | ISP block, 16 Jul 2026 | Close-only on website and API |
| Belgium | Blacklist, 30 Jan 2025 | Close-only on website and API |
| Italy | ISP block, 10 Jul 2026, in force 27 Jul | Close-only on website and API |
| Germany | Proceedings; no ISP order | Close-only on website and API |
| Poland | Register entry, 8 Jan 2025 | Close-only on website and API |
| Netherlands | Penalty order, 20 Jan 2026 | Close-only on website only |
| Spain | ISP block, 26 May 2026 | Not listed |
| Portugal | Ban, 16 Jan 2026 | Not listed |
| Hungary | ISP block, 16 Jan 2026 | Not listed |
| Czechia | Listed, 13 Jul 2026 | Not listed |
| Lithuania | ISP block, 8 Sep 2026 | Not listed |
| Romania | Blacklist, 29 Oct 2025 | Not listed |
| Switzerland | ISP block, 26 Nov 2024 | Not listed |
| Cyprus | Blocking list, by 24 Feb 2026 | Not listed |
| Greece | Blacklist, 21 Nov 2025 | Not listed |
| Ukraine | Register, 10 Dec 2025 | Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk only |
| Country | polymarket.com: anomalous/failed of tests | kalshi.com: anomalous/failed of tests | Regulator's order |
|---|---|---|---|
| France | 385 of 472 | no tests | ISP block since 16 Jul 2026 |
| Spain | 381 of 791 | 1,060 of 1,621 | ISP block since 26 May 2026 |
| Switzerland | 2 of 13 | no tests | ISP block since 26 Nov 2024 |
| Sweden | 0 of 6 | no tests | None found |
| Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Hungary, Czechia, Lithuania, Romania, Belgium, Ukraine, Poland, Cyprus, Greece | no tests | no tests | Orders in the record above |
What is next
Dates already on the record for a decision, a deadline or a review. These are scheduled events, not forecasts.
- 15 Oct 2026Czechia, Ministry of FinanceInternet providers must block kalshi.com from this day; polymarket.com has been listed since 13 July
- About 26 Nov 2026Spain, DGOJSix-month limit on the sanction case opened on 26 May; a fine of 1 to 50 million euros is possible under article 42.3 of the Gambling Act
- PendingItaly, TAR LazioDecision on the merits of Polymarket's appeal against the ADM block; the urgent appeal was refused on 5 August
- PendingNetherlands, courtPolymarket's challenge to the Kansspelautoriteit's 420,000 euro penalty, forfeited after the 17 February deadline
- 1 Jan 2027FinlandThe new licensing regime opens; no Finnish action on prediction markets has been found
Country brief: Germany
Germany: prediction-market evidence brief. A worked example of a single-country brief, as of 2026-10-19: the authority's actions, the venue's own restriction, any OONI observations, the sources, and what the brief cannot tell you.
Authority actions
- Germany, GGL7 Oct 2026
Confirmed to Vultax that administrative proceedings are open against Polymarket and Kalshi, both responded, geoblocking is in place, and no internet-provider block was requested
- Nine regulators: Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland17 Jun 2026
Joint statement at the opening of the World Cup warning about unlicensed prediction markets and pledging enforcement; the GGL told Vultax on 7 October that no joint measures had followed yet
- Germany, GGL5 Sep 2025
Public warning naming Polymarket: paid bets on social and political events cannot be licensed in Germany
Policy and observed access
- Polymarket's own restriction
- Close-only on website and API
- Regulator's order
- Proceedings; no ISP order
OONI observations over 21 July to 19 October 2026
No OONI measurement for Germany in this window. That is an absence of observation, not evidence that access was open.
What this brief cannot tell you: A dated evidence brief from the published source record, not legal advice or a determination of lawful access. Authority actions, venue policy and network observations are separate. No measurement means no observation in the stated dataset, not zero interference. Source notes identify reported or unlinked material. This sample has not been commissioned by a customer.
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An Atom feed of this record's published revisions. It updates when the source record changes — it is a feed to add to a reader, not an email alert, and there is no account or sign-up. We do not run an autonomous watch on your behalf.
/research/europe/feed.xmlDownload the record
The full public snapshot as JSON — every action, source, restriction and measurement with its cutoff. A single country's brief downloads from the country brief above.
/research/europe/data.jsonPrefer the prose? The full study is Prediction Markets in Europe: Fourteen Blocking Orders, and Only Three Are Measured. Data Vultax collects from public sources is published under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0; see the data page for the licence and citation line.