Data
The data behind the studies.
What Vultax records, what every study publishes with its figures, and what is available by agreement. Each number below is one a published study states, and links to it.
What is recorded
Polymarket
Every market, its order book, its trades and its holders, read through the venue's public interfaces on a schedule each study states.
Crypto venues
Order books, trades and tickers on 24 venues, with the feed's own latency and coverage measured and published.
Traders
Wallets with their positions, trades and realised results, under a stated observation contract, never merged with live figures.
The record
What regulators, courts and the venues themselves said, kept with its date, and forecasts frozen before the event.
How each source is read, how often, and what a figure cannot show is in the methodology.
What every study publishes
- Each table and chart as CSV and JSON, with units, window, population and sources. Add /data.json to a study address for all of its datasets.
- Each chart as an SVG with its title, window and source line drawn in, for a page or a newsletter.
- The full text as Markdown: add .md to the study address.
- A press note per study with the headline figure, a quotable summary, the supporting figures and the citation line, and all of them together in /press.json.
- An MCP endpoint that needs no key, for assistants: search the research, read a study, retrieve a dataset.
- An Atom feed of every published study and guide.
Formats and the MCP tools are on the research access page; the Python examples read a market, a book and a fee in three public requests.
Licence and citation
Data Vultax collects itself from public sources is published under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0, with its method note. Use it, with a link to the study.
Data held under licence from a venue or a provider is shown within that licence and is not redistributed. The page says so where it applies.
Vultax Research, <study title>, <revision date>, <study URL>
Next Fed meeting prices, as an embed
One frame for a newsletter or a newsroom page. It selects the next meeting, shows its source time, refreshes every five minutes and withholds stale prices. It loads no script and sets no cookie.
<iframe src="https://vultax.com/embed/fed" title="Next Fed meeting prices — source-timed, by Vultax" width="100%" height="325" style="border:0;max-width:420px" loading="lazy"></iframe>
Preview at https://vultax.com/embed/fed.
By agreement
Measurement to order for newsrooms, researchers, institutions and venues. Tell us the question and the date it is needed. If paid work becomes a public study, the page says who paid.
- A recurring measurement
- The same test on a schedule, on the markets you name, with the method published and the result delivered before or with publication.
- A custom cut
- What we observe, cut to your question, with provenance on every row. Licensed data stays within its licence.
- A method review
- Your definitions and figures checked against public records and our observations.
- A data licence
- Terms with venues and data providers, with a published summary. A licence sets what we may show, never what we conclude.
How each reader works with the research is on work with us.
Studies and files
32 published studies. All of their machine formats are listed in /press.json.