Is Polymarket Just Sports Betting? 84.5% of Its Money on an NFL Sunday
On Sunday 27 September 2026 sports and esports took 84.5% of the dollars traded on Polymarket and 83.8% of the contracts. Over sixteen months the dollar share ran from 31% to a low of 22% and up to 46%, and NFL Sundays sat about twenty points above weekdays.
Sports and esports share of Polymarket's dollars, Sunday 27 September 2026
0.084.5%
95% interval 83.1% to 85.8% of about $92 million; 83.8% of 176.1 million contracts across 7,683 events, 24 hours to 20:39 UTC
- Sports and esports share of dollars traded, April 2026
- 046%
- 31% in January 2025 and a low of 22% in June 2025; every fill from January 2025 to April 2026
- Sundays in the 2025 NFL season
- 057%
- Share of dollars, against about 35% to 40% from Monday to Friday; the highest day in the archive was Sunday 21 September 2025 at 73.6%
- Largest events that were sports or esports
- 020 of 20
- 13 were NFL games; together they took 39.4% of the day's volume
The short answer
On an NFL Sunday, mostly. In the 24 hours to 20:39 UTC on Sunday 27 September 2026, sports and esports took 84.5% of the dollars traded on Polymarket (95% interval 83.1% to 85.8%) and 83.8% of the contracts, counting every event on the venue.
It is not always so. Across every fill from January 2025 to April 2026 the share of dollars ran from 31% to a low of 22% in June 2025 and up to 46%, and in the 2025 NFL season Sundays ran about twenty points above weekdays: 57% against about 35% to 40%. This is one Sunday and a monthly series. The Sunday shows how far sport can go; the series shows how much of the money it usually is.
The page measures what is traded, not how a contract is classified in law. That question is in the courts, set out in Is Polymarket legal in the US? and case by case in the prediction-market lawsuit tracker.
One Sunday, every event counted
Every event that traded on Polymarket's international venue in the 24 hours to 20:39 UTC was counted, 7,683 of them, open or already settled. Sports took 70.6% of the volume and esports 13.2%; crypto took 10.4% and politics 3.2%. All twenty of the largest events were sports or esports, thirteen of them NFL games. The largest, Chiefs vs. Dolphins, carried 8.9 million contracts across 81 markets, and together the twenty took 39.4% of the volume. 41% of the day's volume was in events that had already settled, so a list of open markets alone misses much of it.
The venue's own volume figure counts contracts, not dollars. The 24-hour field on its public event feed, volume24hr, matched contracts traded to within 5% when checked against the venue's trade feed for 19 markets in five categories, and it summed to 176.1 million in this window. The dollar share was estimated from the trade feed for 256 markets drawn in proportion to their volume, about $92 million in all; read as dollars, the volume field would put the day's trading at about twice that. A second full count 26 minutes later gave 84.1% of contracts.
| Category | Events | Share of contracts |
|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2,746 | 70.6% |
| Esports | 259 | 13.2% |
| Crypto | 2,039 | 10.4% |
| Politics | 1,416 | 3.2% |
| Weather and climate | 365 | 1.2% |
| Economy and finance | 295 | 0.4% |
| Culture | 183 | 0.4% |
| Geopolitics | 136 | 0.3% |
| Science and technology | 214 | 0.2% |
| Other | 30 | 0.03% |
Download table figures:CSVJSON with sources
Sundays against weekdays
The day of the week explains part of the gap between April's 46% and the 84% counted on 27 September. In the 2025 NFL season, 4 September 2025 to 8 February 2026, Saturdays, the college football day, ran almost as high as Sundays, and Monday to Friday sat at about 35% to 40%. The rest is growth: the highest day in the archive, Sunday 21 September 2025, reached 73.6%.
Sports and esports share of dollars traded, by day of the week
2025 NFL season, 4 September 2025 to 8 February 2026. Days run from 05:00 UTC, midnight in New York in winter, so a Sunday holds the whole NFL Sunday.
Chart: Vultax Research
Show the numbers
| Category | Sports and esports share |
|---|---|
| Mon | 36% |
| Tue | 35% |
| Wed | 37% |
| Thu | 40% |
| Fri | 41% |
| Sat | 57% |
| Sun | 57% |
Download chart figures:CSVJSON with sourcesSVG chart
Gambling or trading: what the mix does not decide
State gaming regulators say a contract that pays on the result of a game is a sports wager that needs a state licence. The CFTC and the exchanges say a contract listed on a registered exchange is a swap that federal law governs. The share of volume on games does not settle that. The courts are settling it: two of three federal appeals courts have sided with the states on preliminary relief, and three petitions ask the Supreme Court to decide.
The venue counted here is Polymarket's international exchange, which is closed to U.S. users. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-registered exchange, and Is Polymarket legal in the US? covers where it may offer sports contracts.
Method and limits
The count of 27 September 2026 read Polymarket's public event feed in full, ordered by 24-hour volume until the field reached zero, and counted each event once under the venue's own tags. The dollar estimate re-priced 256 markets drawn in proportion to their volume from the venue's trade feed, with the interval taken from 300 draws. The monthly and weekday figures use every fill in the Polymarket-v1 archive published by Boka Qin and Rui Yang (CC BY 4.0), January 2025 to 28 April 2026.
One Sunday in the NFL season is the high end of the week, not a typical day, and the archive ends five months before it. How deep the books are, and at what hours each sport trades, is in Polymarket sports and esports markets.
Downloads contain the published study figures. Changing market widgets are separate. Use Vultax research with an AI assistant. Press note.
Questions this page answers
- Is Polymarket just sports betting?
- Not always, but on an NFL weekend mostly: sports and esports took 84.5% of the dollars traded on Polymarket in the 24 hours to 20:39 UTC on Sunday 27 September 2026. From January 2025 to April 2026 the monthly share ran between 22% and 47%, and politics and crypto took most of the rest.
- Is Polymarket gambling?
- That is a legal question the courts are deciding. State gaming regulators treat sports event contracts as unlicensed wagers; the CFTC and the exchanges treat them as swaps under federal law. Two of three federal appeals courts have sided with the states on preliminary relief, and three petitions ask the Supreme Court to decide. What can be measured is the mix: on Sunday 27 September 2026, 84.5% of Polymarket's dollars were on sports and esports.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Regulators disagree, and the courts have not finished deciding. The CFTC says event contracts on registered exchanges are derivatives it alone regulates; many states say sports contracts are gambling that needs a state licence, and the United States and the CFTC have sued eight of them. On Polymarket, sports and esports took 84.5% of dollars on Sunday 27 September 2026 and 46% across April 2026.
- How much of Polymarket's volume is sports?
- On an NFL Sunday, most of it: 83.8% of the contracts traded in the 24 hours to 20:39 UTC on Sunday 27 September 2026 were on sports and esports, 84.5% in dollars. Over a longer run it is lower: 31% of dollars in January 2025, 46% in April 2026, and 57% on Sundays against about 35% to 40% on weekdays during the 2025 NFL season.
- Does Polymarket's 24-hour volume count dollars or contracts?
- Contracts. The volume24hr field on Polymarket's public event feed adds up contracts traded, matching the venue's own trade feed to within 5% in 19 markets checked. On Sunday 27 September 2026 the venue traded 176.1 million contracts for about $92 million.
Sources and evidence
- Polymarket Gamma API — events by 24-hour volume
Read in full at 20:39 UTC on 27 September 2026, until the volume field reached zero; volume24hr counts contracts
- Polymarket data API — trades
Dollars paid for the 256 sampled markets, and the check of the volume field against contracts traded
- Boka Qin and Rui Yang — Polymarket-v1 Database (TimeSeventeen)
Every fill from 1 January 2025 to 28 April 2026, published under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); the monthly and weekday shares are Vultax calculations on it.
- Vultax: Is Polymarket legal in the US?
Where sports event contracts may be offered, venue by venue
- Vultax: Prediction market lawsuit tracker
The court cases over sports and event contracts, checked against the court record
- Vultax: Polymarket sports and esports markets
Order-book depth and trading hours by sport
Figures describe Polymarket's international venue: one full count on 27 September 2026 and every fill from January 2025 to April 2026. They measure what was traded, not how any contract is classified in law. Nothing here is legal or financial advice.
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