Vultax Research
Julian Holguín
US Contributor, Fort Myers, Florida
Julian Holguín is a US contributor to Vultax Research, where he covers the intersection of culture, technology and prediction markets.
He writes about what the betting markets say about public life: who wins the Ballon d'Or, the World Series and the Nobel Peace Prize, how much of Polymarket's money now rides on sports, and how Florida's 2026 midterm races were priced.
He is based in Fort Myers, Florida, and holds an Associate in Arts from Florida SouthWestern State College.
How the desk works: editorial policy. Corrections: [email protected].
Latest
- Florida Midterm Odds 2026: Every Paid Close Race Went to the FavouriteEvery close Florida race Polymarket has paid went to its favourite, 10 of 10, where the prices implied about 8.1. Byron Donalds was 65.5% and Ashley Moody 87.5%, and both won inside the margin the market made likeliest.
- World Series 2026 Odds: Brewers Were 62% Before Game 1 and Lead 3–0Before Game 1 the Milwaukee Brewers were 62.1% to beat the Tampa Bay Rays on Polymarket, against 2.2% on 1 February; they won the first three games. The Dodgers led the market on 264 of its 271 days and were swept. In 2025 the Dodgers fell to 10.5% in Game 7 and won.
- Ballon d’Or 2026: Kane Won at 67%, and the Price Did Not Move EarlyHarry Kane won the 2026 Ballon d’Or after leading Polymarket at 67.1% a week out. Unlike 2024, his price jumped only in the minute of the announcement.
- Elon Musk Tweet Count on Polymarket: 101 Rounds Checked, the Favourite Wins 1 in 3We checked 101 rounds of Polymarket's bet on how many times Elon Musk posts on X in a week. Two days before a round closes, the crowd's favourite range wins 31% of the time, close to its 34% price. When the crowd is wrong, Musk has usually posted more than it expected, not fewer.
- Is Polymarket Just Sports Betting? 84.5% of Its Money on an NFL SundayOn Sunday 27 September 2026 sports and esports took 84.5% of the dollars traded on Polymarket and 83.8% of the contracts. Over sixteen months the dollar share ran from 31% to a low of 22% and up to 46%, and NFL Sundays sat about twenty points above weekdays.
- Nobel Peace Prize odds: 2026 result, saved forecast and 2025 studyNavi Pillay won the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize. Compare the official result with our frozen forecast, dated 2026 market snapshots and the 2025 study of prices before the announcement.
- Polymarket Sports and Esports: Esports Took 21.4% of the Money on the Thinnest BooksOf $727.0 million of Polymarket trading Vultax observed from 21 August to 12 September 2026, esports took 21.4%, peaking mid-morning UTC. Before start on 12–13 September, a typical League of Legends book held $413 within 2 cents; an NFL game $523,000.
