Ballon d'Or 2026 Odds: Kane 67% a Week Out, and the 89.5% Favourite Who Lost in 2024
Harry Kane leads Polymarket's 2026 Ballon d'Or market at 67.1% a week before the London ceremony. In 2024 Vinícius Júnior was 89.5% a week out and lost: the price turned in 24 minutes on the afternoon of the ceremony. In 2025 Ousmane Dembélé was 85.2% and won.
Vinícius Júnior's fall on the 2024 ceremony day
−72.0 pts
From 80.5% to 8.5% in 24 minutes, 13:48 to 14:12 UTC on 28 October 2024. Rodri won
- Harry Kane, 2026 winner price
- 67.1%
- Polymarket, 12:45 UTC on 19 October 2026, a week before the ceremony. Lamine Yamal 24.9%
- The favourite a week before the ceremony
- 89.5% and 85.2%
- Vinícius Júnior in 2024, who lost, and Ousmane Dembélé in 2025, who won
- Changes of leader in the 2026 market
- 22
- Daily readings from 23 September 2025 to 19 October 2026
The short answer
Harry Kane leads Polymarket's 2026 Ballon d'Or market at 67.1%, a week before the ceremony in London on 26 October. Lamine Yamal is second at 24.9%, and no one else is above 4%. The prices were read at 12:45 UTC on 19 October 2026.
Two earlier markets show what a price like that does and does not mean. In 2024 Vinícius Júnior was 89.5% a week before the ceremony and 92.5% a day before, and Rodri won. The price turned on the afternoon of the ceremony: Vinícius fell from 80.5% to 8.5% in 24 minutes, and Rodri took the lead at 14:01 UTC, 7 hours 45 minutes before the market settled. In 2025 Ousmane Dembélé was 85.2% a week out, and he won.
Kane's 67.1% is lower than either of those favourites at the same distance from the ceremony. It says the market sees about one chance in three that someone else wins. This page reads the public price record; it is not a forecast of the winner.
Ballon d'Or 2026 odds on Polymarket
The 30-player shortlist was published on 8 September 2026. At 12:45 UTC on 19 October, 19 names in Polymarket's winner market had an open market and a recorded price. The table shows the ten highest, with the separate top-three market beside them.
The two markets answer different questions. Kylian Mbappé is 3.4% to win but 78.5% to finish in the top three, so the market expects a podium of Kane, Yamal and Mbappé, in that order. Lionel Messi is 3.1% to win and 20.5% to make the top three. The women's award is decided the same night, in a much thinner market: Alexia Putellas is 92.8% and Ewa Pajor 5.4%.
| Candidate | Win | Top three finish |
|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | 67.1% | 97.2% |
| Lamine Yamal | 24.9% | 92.2% |
| Kylian Mbappé | 3.4% | 78.5% |
| Lionel Messi | 3.1% | 20.5% |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.4% | 5.9% |
| Rodri | 0.4% | 10.5% |
| Erling Haaland | 0.2% | 2.1% |
| Ousmane Dembélé | 0.2% | 4.5% |
| Michael Olise | 0.2% | 4.8% |
| Fabian Ruiz | 0.2% | 3.9% |
Download table figures:CSVJSON with sources
How the 2026 favourite changed over 13 months
The 2026 market opened on 23 September 2025, the day after the 2025 ceremony. In its daily readings since then the lead has changed hands 22 times. Mbappé led for 169 days, Kane for 156, Yamal for 45, Dembélé for 16 and Messi for 4.
The World Cup moved the price more than anything else. On the evening of the first semi-final, 14 July, Mbappé fell from 30.5% at 17:00 UTC to 5.0% at 21:00 UTC, and Kane rose to 38.6%. On the evening of the second, 15 July, Kane fell from 48.8% to 21.4% and Messi rose from 16.7% to 43.8%. Spain beat Argentina 1–0 after extra time in the final on 19 July; by 23:00 UTC Messi was 8.3% and Kane 45.3%.
Kane has led on every day since 20 July except six, from 29 September to 4 October, when Yamal was ahead. Kane was 62.5% on 15 October and 67.1% on the 19th.
Ballon d'Or 2026 winner price, four leading names
Polymarket, Monday 00:00 UTC readings, 29 September 2025 to 19 October 2026. Percent.
- Harry Kane
- Lamine Yamal
- Kylian Mbappé
- Ousmane Dembélé
Weekly readings smooth the swings of the World Cup week; the hourly prices are in the text above.
Chart: Vultax Research
Show the numbers
| Point | Harry Kane | Lamine Yamal | Kylian Mbappé | Ousmane Dembélé |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Sep | 16% | 22% | 25% | 9.5% |
| 6 Oct | 14% | 24% | 32% | 11% |
| 13 Oct | 11% | 22% | 33% | 10% |
| 20 Oct | 13% | 23% | 24% | 9% |
| 27 Oct | 13% | 24% | 28% | 9% |
| 3 Nov | 14% | 23% | 30% | 7.5% |
| 10 Nov | 15% | 22% | 32% | 3.6% |
| 17 Nov | 15% | 23% | 34% | 4% |
| 24 Nov | 17% | 22% | 32% | 3.5% |
| 1 Dec | 20% | 21% | 33% | 3.4% |
| 8 Dec | 18% | 20% | 35% | 3% |
| 15 Dec | 21% | 20% | 30% | 2.9% |
| 22 Dec | 19% | 19% | 28% | 3% |
| 29 Dec | 20% | 19% | 27% | 2.8% |
| 5 Jan 2026 | 20% | 19% | 30% | 2.8% |
| 12 Jan | 21% | 21% | 29% | 2.8% |
| 19 Jan | 20% | 21% | 31% | 2.9% |
| 26 Jan | 22% | 24% | 29% | 3% |
| 2 Feb | 23% | 29% | 27% | 2.6% |
| 9 Feb | 18% | 27% | 29% | 2.2% |
| 16 Feb | 15% | 28% | 31% | 2.2% |
| 23 Feb | 18% | 23% | 34% | 2.1% |
| 2 Mar | 19% | 28% | 34% | 1.6% |
| 9 Mar | 26% | 30% | 21% | 2.5% |
| 16 Mar | 24% | 33% | 22% | 2.5% |
| 23 Mar | 25% | 30% | 24% | 1.8% |
| 30 Mar | 23% | 24% | 23% | 1.8% |
| 6 Apr | 21% | 24% | 25% | 1.5% |
| 13 Apr | 34% | 19% | 18% | 2.6% |
| 20 Apr | 30% | 16% | 15% | 5.6% |
| 27 Apr | 38% | 11% | 13% | 6.1% |
| 4 May | 36% | 8.5% | 11% | 9.5% |
| 11 May | 18% | 8.5% | 11% | 21% |
| 18 May | 18% | 8% | 8.5% | 24% |
| 25 May | 25% | 11% | 8.5% | 19% |
| 1 Jun | 27% | 11% | 8.5% | 25% |
| 8 Jun | 27% | 15% | 9.5% | 18% |
| 15 Jun | 28% | 16% | 8.5% | 12% |
| 22 Jun | 32% | 14% | 12% | 7.6% |
| 29 Jun | 22% | 8.5% | 17% | 16% |
| 6 Jul | 22% | 7.5% | 26% | 12% |
| 13 Jul | 29% | 5.3% | 33% | 15% |
| 20 Jul | 40% | 29% | 7.5% | 4.7% |
| 27 Jul | 44% | 26% | 10% | 1.4% |
| 3 Aug | 54% | 21% | 9.8% | 1.4% |
| 10 Aug | 59% | 18% | 8.1% | 1.7% |
| 17 Aug | 61% | 16% | 8.3% | 2.1% |
| 24 Aug | 61% | 16% | 6.8% | 1.5% |
| 31 Aug | 65% | 15% | 9.2% | 1.2% |
| 7 Sep | 64% | 15% | 7.9% | 0.6% |
| 14 Sep | 61% | 17% | 11% | 0.7% |
| 21 Sep | 57% | 22% | 7.5% | 0.9% |
| 28 Sep | 55% | 32% | 6.4% | 0.8% |
| 5 Oct | 47% | 45% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| 12 Oct | 66% | 28% | 2.1% | 0.3% |
| 19 Oct | 67% | 27% | 2.9% | 0.3% |
Download chart figures:CSVJSON with sources
2024: the favourite who lost
Vinícius Júnior led Polymarket's 2024 market on 54 of its 55 days and reached 94.5%. A week before the ceremony he was 89.5% and Rodri 8.3%; a day before, 92.5% against 6.7%.
The move began at 13:48 UTC on 28 October, the afternoon of the ceremony in Paris. By 14:12 UTC Vinícius was 8.5%. Rodri passed him at 14:01 UTC. In the minutes that followed Rodri was at 85% or more nine times in ten, with one dip to 60.5% at 17:23 UTC, until his price reached 99.9% at 21:46 UTC. That day Reuters reported that Real Madrid had called off its trip to the ceremony because the club understood Vinícius would not win.
Vinícius Júnior and Rodri on the day of the 2024 ceremony
Polymarket, every 10 minutes, 00:00 to 21:40 UTC on 28 October 2024. Percent.
- Vinícius Júnior
- Rodri
The marked times come from the minute series; the minute prices around the move are in the table below.
Chart: Vultax Research
Show the numbers
| Point | Vinícius Júnior | Rodri |
|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | 83% | 9.6% |
| 00:10 | 84% | 15% |
| 00:20 | 88% | 15% |
| 00:30 | 85% | 15% |
| 00:40 | 83% | 15% |
| 00:50 | 87% | 14% |
| 01:00 | 84% | 15% |
| 01:10 | 87% | 12% |
| 01:20 | 87% | 12% |
| 01:30 | 88% | 12% |
| 01:40 | 88% | 12% |
| 01:50 | 86% | 13% |
| 02:00 | 86% | 13% |
| 02:10 | 88% | 13% |
| 02:20 | 88% | 13% |
| 02:30 | 88% | 13% |
| 02:40 | 88% | 13% |
| 02:50 | 88% | 13% |
| 03:00 | 89% | 13% |
| 03:10 | 91% | 12% |
| 03:20 | 91% | 12% |
| 03:30 | 89% | 12% |
| 03:40 | 89% | 13% |
| 03:50 | 87% | 13% |
| 04:00 | 88% | 13% |
| 04:10 | 88% | 12% |
| 04:20 | 89% | 11% |
| 04:30 | 89% | 11% |
| 04:40 | 89% | 11% |
| 04:50 | 90% | 9.8% |
| 05:00 | 91% | 8.8% |
| 05:10 | 90% | 8.9% |
| 05:20 | 91% | 9.2% |
| 05:30 | 91% | 8.9% |
| 05:40 | 90% | 9.3% |
| 05:50 | 90% | 9.4% |
| 06:00 | 91% | 8.8% |
| 06:10 | 91% | 8.8% |
| 06:20 | 91% | 8.8% |
| 06:30 | 91% | 8.8% |
| 06:40 | 89% | 9.9% |
| 06:50 | 88% | 10% |
| 07:00 | 88% | 11% |
| 07:10 | 88% | 11% |
| 07:20 | 87% | 12% |
| 07:30 | 87% | 12% |
| 07:40 | 88% | 11% |
| 07:50 | 88% | 11% |
| 08:00 | 88% | 11% |
| 08:10 | 87% | 11% |
| 08:20 | 88% | 11% |
| 08:30 | 86% | 11% |
| 08:40 | 89% | 11% |
| 08:50 | 87% | 11% |
| 09:00 | 88% | 11% |
| 09:10 | 88% | 11% |
| 09:20 | 89% | 11% |
| 09:30 | 89% | 11% |
| 09:40 | 91% | 11% |
| 09:50 | 89% | 11% |
| 10:00 | 87% | 11% |
| 10:10 | 86% | 12% |
| 10:20 | 86% | 12% |
| 10:30 | 88% | 12% |
| 10:40 | 89% | 12% |
| 10:50 | 88% | 12% |
| 11:00 | 89% | 10% |
| 11:10 | 90% | 10% |
| 11:20 | 90% | 10% |
| 11:30 | 90% | 12% |
| 11:40 | 90% | 12% |
| 11:50 | 90% | 11% |
| 12:00 | 90% | 11% |
| 12:10 | 88% | 17% |
| 12:20 | 85% | 16% |
| 12:30 | 85% | 16% |
| 12:40 | 87% | 14% |
| 12:50 | 84% | 16% |
| 13:00 | 87% | 16% |
| 13:10 | 86% | 16% |
| 13:20 | 86% | 16% |
| 13:30 | 82% | 16% |
| 13:40 | 80% | 20% |
| 13:50 | 71% | 21% |
| 14:00 | 63% | 33% |
| 14:10 | 6.5% | 85% |
| 14:20 | 6.5% | 90% |
| 14:30 | 5.5% | 93% |
| 14:40 | 3% | 94% |
| 14:50 | 7.2% | 92% |
| 15:00 | 4.4% | 93% |
| 15:10 | 7.8% | 90% |
| 15:20 | 8.2% | 91% |
| 15:30 | 4.6% | 96% |
| 15:40 | 5% | 94% |
| 15:50 | 5.1% | 94% |
| 16:00 | 4.6% | 95% |
| 16:10 | 4.8% | 94% |
| 16:20 | 6.9% | 93% |
| 16:30 | 9.4% | 90% |
| 16:40 | 9.7% | 89% |
| 16:50 | 9.2% | 90% |
| 17:00 | 9.1% | 91% |
| 17:10 | 8.2% | 91% |
| 17:20 | 8.5% | 91% |
| 17:30 | 18% | 84% |
| 17:40 | 19% | 81% |
| 17:50 | 17% | 84% |
| 18:00 | 12% | 87% |
| 18:10 | 12% | 89% |
| 18:20 | 12% | 85% |
| 18:30 | 12% | 87% |
| 18:40 | 12% | 89% |
| 18:50 | 7.9% | 92% |
| 19:00 | 7.6% | 92% |
| 19:10 | 7.7% | 92% |
| 19:20 | 8% | 91% |
| 19:30 | 6.7% | 91% |
| 19:40 | 14% | 93% |
| 19:50 | 12% | 90% |
| 20:00 | 6.3% | 91% |
| 20:10 | 3.2% | 94% |
| 20:20 | 4.5% | 96% |
| 20:30 | 4.2% | 96% |
| 20:40 | 4.5% | 96% |
| 20:50 | 5.7% | 95% |
| 21:00 | 5.2% | 95% |
| 21:10 | 5% | 95% |
| 21:20 | 9% | 91% |
| 21:30 | 6.7% | 93% |
| 21:40 | 6.1% | 92% |
| 28 Oct 2024 | Vinícius Júnior | Rodri |
|---|---|---|
| 13:45 UTC | 79.0% | 20.1% |
| 13:48 UTC | 80.5% | 19.6% |
| 13:51 UTC | 75.0% | 20.5% |
| 13:54 UTC | 73.0% | 22.9% |
| 13:57 UTC | 67.5% | 56.8% |
| 14:00 UTC | 62.5% | 32.6% |
| 14:03 UTC | 35.0% | 62.0% |
| 14:06 UTC | 25.5% | 66.0% |
| 14:09 UTC | 11.5% | 83.7% |
| 14:12 UTC | 8.5% | 90.2% |
| 14:15 UTC | 5.5% | 90.2% |
Download table figures:CSVJSON with sources
Download chart figures:CSVJSON with sources
What the 2024 trade record shows
The public trade record shows little early money on Rodri. In the 14 hours before 13:50 UTC on 28 October, takers bought $64,987 of Vinícius from 147 wallets, including one purchase of $10,000 at 92.2% at 11:02 UTC. Over the same hours $3,013 went on Rodri from 57 wallets; the largest single purchase was $400 at 12.5%.
The money came with and after the move. In the 20 minutes from 13:50 UTC, 47 trades worth $5,776 crossed in the Rodri market. Between 14:10 UTC and the settlement, $233,971 traded there, about 197 times its average hourly dollars in the week before.
A trade is counted at its size times its price, and a purchase of Yes is counted together with a sale of No. No wallet is identified here, and the record cannot say why anyone traded.
2025: the favourite who held
Dembélé first led the 2025 market on 7 May 2025 and led on 137 of its 201 days. From 10 July he stayed between 78% and 90%. A week before the ceremony on 22 September he was 85.2%, and a day before 84.7%.
The price wobbled on the night. At 18:52 UTC Dembélé dipped to 60.5% and Yamal rose to 33.3%; by 19:20 UTC Dembélé was back above 80%. His price reached 99.9% at 20:49 UTC.
The favourite's price at the same checkpoints
Two finished markets are not a base rate. They show the range: a favourite near 90% a week out lost once and won once. Kane is 67.1% at the same distance in 2026.
| Before the market settled | 2024 Vinícius Júnior (lost) | 2024 Rodri (won) | 2025 Ousmane Dembélé (won) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 days | 88.0% | 7.0% | 84.7% |
| 7 days | 89.5% | 8.3% | 85.2% |
| 24 hours | 92.5% | 6.7% | 84.7% |
| 1 hour | 3.9% | 95.0% | 79.9% |
| 10 minutes | 7.1% | 92.0% | 84.5% |
Download table figures:CSVJSON with sources
How to read a Ballon d'Or price
The same pattern, a price that moves before a scheduled announcement, is measured across 50 award markets in our Nobel Peace Prize study.
- A price is the market's chance, not a ranking of who played best. 67.1% means the market expects someone other than Kane to win about one time in three.
- The vote is cast before the ceremony. A price can move on reports about the result before it is read out, as it did in 2024.
- Small prices are mostly the gap between buyers and sellers. At 0.1% or 0.2%, a name is priced as out of contention.
- The winner and top-three markets answer different questions. Read Mbappé's 3.4% to win next to his 78.5% to finish in the top three.
Method and limits
Prices are Polymarket's Yes prices from its public price-history API: minute values for the last four days of the 2024 and 2025 markets, hourly values for July 2026 and daily 00:00 UTC values for everything else. The 2026 table reads each open market's last minute price at or before 12:45 UTC on 19 October 2026. A name leads on a day when it has the highest daily price.
Trade dollars come from Polymarket's public trade record for the 2024 Rodri and Vinícius markets, from 21 October 2024 to the close: 2,496 and 3,993 taker trades. Polymarket's listed volume for a market is a different and much larger figure, and this page does not use it to compare candidates.
Two finished markets are too few for a rate of how often the favourite wins. This page will be updated after the 26 October ceremony with the result and the final week's prices. It reads public prices; it is not a forecast by Vultax and not advice to trade.
Downloads contain the published study figures. Changing market widgets are separate. Use Vultax research with an AI assistant. Press note.
Questions this page answers
- Who is the favourite to win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
- On Polymarket at 12:45 UTC on 19 October 2026, Harry Kane was 67.1% to win and Lamine Yamal 24.9%. Kylian Mbappé was 3.4% to win but 78.5% to finish in the top three.
- When and where is the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?
- On 26 October 2026 in London, as the organisers announced on 28 May 2026. The 30-player shortlist was published on 8 September.
- Did Polymarket know Rodri would win the 2024 Ballon d'Or?
- The price turned about 7 hours 45 minutes before the result: Vinícius fell from 80.5% to 8.5% between 13:48 and 14:12 UTC on 28 October 2024. The public trade record shows little money on Rodri before that move; the largest bets that morning were on Vinícius.
- How often does the Ballon d'Or favourite win on Polymarket?
- Polymarket has two finished men's winner markets. The favourite a week out lost in 2024 at 89.5% and won in 2025 at 85.2%. Two cases are too few for a rate.
- Who is the favourite for the 2026 women's Ballon d'Or?
- Alexia Putellas, at 92.8% on Polymarket at 12:45 UTC on 19 October 2026, with Ewa Pajor at 5.4%. The women's market is much thinner than the men's.
Revision notes
This page is kept current. Each entry records what changed and when; the live figures above refresh on their own.
- Published a week before the 26 October ceremony, with Polymarket's 2026 prices read at 12:45 UTC on 19 October 2026.
Sources and evidence
- Polymarket — Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
The 2026 market; prices read at 12:45 UTC on 19 October 2026.
- Polymarket — Ballon d'Or Top 3 Finish 2026
Top-three prices in the 2026 table.
- Polymarket — Women's Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
- Polymarket — Ballon d'Or Winner (2024)
13 markets, settled 28 October 2024.
- Polymarket — Ballon d'Or Winner 2025
26 markets, settled 22 September 2025.
- Polymarket API — price history and trades
Minute, hourly and daily Yes prices from the CLOB API; taker trades from the data API. Vultax computed the readings and sums.
- Reuters, via Flashscore — Real Madrid will not travel to Ballon d'Or awards
28 October 2024 report on the club cancelling its trip.
- AFP, via The Peninsula — London to host 2026 Ballon d'Or in October
28 May 2026: ceremony on 26 October in London.
- beIN Sports — Kane, Yamal and Mbappe headline 30-man Ballon d'Or shortlist
The 2026 shortlist, 8 September 2026.
- NBC Philadelphia — Spain tops Lionel Messi, Argentina 1-0 to win 2026 World Cup
19 July 2026 final, decided in extra time.
A reading of public market prices and trades at the stated times, not a forecast by Vultax and not advice to trade. No wallet, account or trader is identified or accused.
Watch this measurement live in Vultax.
Live Polymarket prices for every 2026 Ballon d'Or candidate, the market this study reads, up to the London ceremony.
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