Press note
Ballon d'Or 2026 Odds: Kane 67% a Week Out, and the 89.5% Favourite Who Lost in 2024
−72.0 ptsVinícius Júnior's fall on the 2024 ceremony day
From 80.5% to 8.5% in 24 minutes, 13:48 to 14:12 UTC on 28 October 2024. Rodri won
Harry Kane leads Polymarket's 2026 Ballon d'Or market at 67.1% a week before the London ceremony. In 2024 Vinícius Júnior was 89.5% a week out and lost: the price turned in 24 minutes on the afternoon of the ceremony. In 2025 Ousmane Dembélé was 85.2% and won. Lamine Yamal is second at 24.9%, and no one else is above 4%. The prices were read at 12:45 UTC on 19 October 2026. Two earlier markets show what a price like that does and does not mean. The price turned on the afternoon of the ceremony: Vinícius fell from 80.5% to 8.5% in 24 minutes, and Rodri took the lead at 14:01 UTC, 7 hours 45 minutes before the market settled. Kane's 67.1% is lower than either of those favourites at the same distance from the ceremony.
Observed 2026-10-19T12:45Z, population: Open markets in Polymarket's Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 and Top 3 Finish 2026 events.
Supporting figures
- 67.1% — Harry Kane, 2026 winner pricePolymarket, 12:45 UTC on 19 October 2026, a week before the ceremony. Lamine Yamal 24.9%
- 89.5% and 85.2% — The favourite a week before the ceremonyVinícius Júnior in 2024, who lost, and Ousmane Dembélé in 2025, who won
- 22 — Changes of leader in the 2026 marketDaily readings from 23 September 2025 to 19 October 2026
Images
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Links
- The study
- Full text, sources and method
- Markdown edition
- Plain text for quoting and for assistants
- Chart figures (CSV)
- The numbers behind the headline chart
- All datasets (JSON)
- Every published table and chart, with units and sources
- Open the Ballon d'Or odds room
- Live Polymarket prices for every 2026 Ballon d'Or candidate, the market this study reads, up to the London ceremony.
Press contact
Vultax Research — [email protected]
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How to cite
Vultax Research, Ballon d'Or 2026 Odds: Kane 67% a Week Out, and the 89.5% Favourite Who Lost in 2024, 2026-10-20, https://vultax.com/research/ballon-dor-2026-odds-polymarket
Published 2026-10-20. Figures are the published study; live screens move. Plain-text version, Use our data