Press note
A long-shot screen on historical Polymarket fills: base rates and a correction
−5.40¢Corrected tight screen, matched comparison
1,316 selected bets; 93.3% entered the matched comparison. Market-bootstrap 95% interval −10.53 to −0.07 cents. See correction and follow-up.
The long-shot screen tested on historical Polymarket fills, with a correction to the tight screen: 1,316 bets and a matched gap of −5.40 cents per share. Earlier sensitivity tables are retained as historical results. They are preserved to document the earlier publication; use the follow-up paper for the corrected strict and topic/time comparisons. US authorities have charged two traders with insider trading on Polymarket, and the long-shot screen used to flag insider wallets holds bets from both of the wallets that match the complaints. Narrowed to what it is meant to catch, a heavy long-shot bet within 48 hours of the outcome from a wallet under two weeks old with almost no other bets, it leaves 1,331 of 113,863 qualifying bets.
Observed 2025-01-01 to 2026-04-28, population: 113,863 qualifying long-shot bets in settled Polymarket markets, 1,331 of them in the tight group.
Supporting figures
- −3.67% — Return on the flagged bet type, platform-wide113,863 bets by 17,858 wallets, $1,238,620,067 staked, 24.37% won at an average entry price of 23.01¢. Polymarket settled markets, 1 January 2025 to 28 April 2026
- +16.87% — Return on the flagged bet type in politics11,049 bets by 5,111 wallets, $140.9M staked; 23.61% won at an average of 19.66¢. Of the four categories with more than 4,000 flagged bets, the only one that made money.
Images
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Links
- The study
- Full text, sources and method
- Markdown edition
- Plain text for quoting and for assistants
- Chart figures (CSV)
- The numbers behind the headline chart
- All datasets (JSON)
- Every published table and chart, with units and sources
- Open the Polymarket leaderboard
- Every tracked Polymarket wallet with its realised profit, win rate and activity, ranked from historical fill records and Vultax calculations.
Press contact
Vultax Research — [email protected]
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How to cite
Kurg, Christopher Geneth, A long-shot screen on historical Polymarket fills: base rates and a correction, 2026-10-28, https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate
Published 2026-09-21, last revised 2026-10-28. Figures are the published study; live screens move. Plain-text version, Use our data