Press note

Where unusual Polymarket wins concentrate

32 / 37KPMG-client cycles, selected group

23.331 initial-direction wins implied by entry prices; not a profit estimate.

The same published accounts beat entry-price expectations on one auditor’s clients, with no excess elsewhere. A broader wallet screen raises a different question. Download the aggregate tables and calculation script (ZIP). Research note, version 1.0, 8 October 2026. This is exploratory historical research and has not been peer reviewed. The most useful contrast in our follow-up study is where a selected group's extra wins occur. Across thirteen wallet addresses published in earlier reporting, initial positions on KPMG-audited companies won 32 times in 37 company reporting cycles. Their entry prices implied 23.3 wins. On companies with other known auditors, the same group won 28 times in 55 cycles, against 30.7 expected. That is about nine more wins than the price benchmark on KPMG clients, with no excess on the comparison group.

Observed 2025-01-01 to 2026-04-28, population: 13 previously published addresses; 92 pooled company reporting cycles.