Press note
Elon Musk Tweet Count on Polymarket: 101 Rounds Checked, the Favourite Wins 1 in 3
31%The favourite range won, two days before the close
31 of 101 seven-day rounds, 3 October 2025 to 25 September 2026 (95% range 23–40%); the favourite's average price was 34.2%.
We checked 101 rounds of Polymarket's bet on how many times Elon Musk posts on X in a week. Two days before a round closes, the crowd's favourite range wins 31% of the time, close to its 34% price. When the crowd is wrong, Musk has usually posted more than it expected, not fewer. Polymarket runs a bet on how many times Elon Musk will post on X in the next seven days. The count is split into ranges of 20 posts, a share of the range that wins pays a dollar, and every other share pays nothing. A new round opens every Tuesday and every Friday at noon New York time and runs seven days, so two rounds are always running.
Observed 2025-10-03 to 2026-09-25, population: 101 finished seven-day rounds.
Supporting figures
- 67% — The favourite won, six hours before the close68 of 101 rounds, at an average price of 70.5%.
- 76% — Misses where Musk posted more, one day before the closeWhen the favourite range missed with one day left, he finished above it in 37 rounds and below it in 12; with two days left, 41 and 29.
- $1.16bn — Traded on the seven-day rounds101 finished rounds since 3 October 2025, by Polymarket's own count.
Images
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Links
- The study
- Full text, sources and method
- Markdown edition
- Plain text for quoting and for assistants
- Chart figures (CSV)
- The numbers behind the headline chart
- All datasets (JSON)
- Every published table and chart, with units and sources
- Open the Elon Musk tweets room
- The rounds still running, priced live beside his running count, and 26 weeks of replayed odds.
Press contact
Vultax Research — [email protected]
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How to cite
Vultax Research, Elon Musk Tweet Count on Polymarket: 101 Rounds Checked, the Favourite Wins 1 in 3, 2026-10-06, https://vultax.com/research/elon-musk-tweet-count-polymarket
Published 2026-10-06. Figures are the published study; live screens move. Plain-text version · Use our data