Press note
Florida Midterm Odds 2026: Every Paid Close Race Went to the Favourite
10 of 10Close Florida races paid to the favourite
Polymarket, races priced under 90 cents on the eve of the vote; about 8.1 were expected to win
Every close Florida race Polymarket has paid went to its favourite, 10 of 10, where the prices implied about 8.1. Byron Donalds was 65.5% and Ashley Moody 87.5%, and both won inside the margin the market made likeliest. At their prices on the eve of the vote, about 8.1 of them should have won. On a night when close-race favourites fell in other states, Florida's held. No state had more close races paid by Polymarket, and none beat its prices by as much. Byron Donalds was 65.5% to become governor and won by about 1.3 points on the unofficial count. Ashley Moody was 87.5% in the Senate race and won by about 2.9. Both results fell inside the margin bracket the market had made its single likeliest.
Observed 2026-11-02T23:59:00Z, population: Polymarket's Florida governor margin-of-victory market.
Supporting figures
- 65.5% — Byron Donalds, governor, eve of the voteHe won by about 1.3 points on the unofficial count
- 58.0% — Angie Nixon to carry Miami-Dade, eve of the voteUp from 49.5% a week earlier; she carried the county by about seven points
- $4.9M — Traded on the governor's race on election nightFrom the eve of the vote to the last poll close
Images
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Links
- The study
- Full text, sources and method
- Markdown edition
- Plain text for quoting and for assistants
- Chart figures (CSV)
- The numbers behind the headline chart
- All datasets (JSON)
- Every published table and chart, with units and sources
- Watch the 2026 midterm markets
- Senate, House and governor races on Polymarket, including the Florida House races still being counted.
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Vultax Research — [email protected]
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How to cite
Holguín, Julian, Florida Midterm Odds 2026: Every Paid Close Race Went to the Favourite, 2026-11-04, https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-florida-midterm-odds-2026
Published 2026-11-04. Figures are the published study; live screens move. Plain-text version, Use our data