Press note
Election Night Odds: Polymarket Passed 90% for Trump Nearly 7 Hours Before the AP Call
6 h 56 minPresidency: Polymarket above 90% before the AP call
Trump crossed 90% for good at 10:38 p.m. Eastern on 5 November 2024; the AP called the race at 5:34 a.m. on 6 November
On election night 2024 Polymarket's presidential market moved from 58.3% for Trump at 7 p.m. Eastern to above 90% at 10:38 p.m., 6 h 56 min before the AP call. In Michigan the lead was 12 h 19 min. Minute by minute, against every AP call. Donald Trump was 58.3% at 7 p.m. He crossed 90% at 10:38 p.m. and never fell back below it; the AP called the race at 5:34 a.m. on 6 November, 6 h 56 min later. The same gap appears in every battleground state. The state markets passed 90% for the eventual winner between 1 h 58 min and 12 h 19 min before the AP called North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, and about three days before Nevada and Arizona.
Observed 2024-11-05T23:00Z to 2024-11-10T02:21Z, population: Polymarket's 2024 presidential winner market and its seven battleground state markets.
Supporting figures
- 58.3% — Trump in the presidential market at 7 p.m. EasternRead at 7 p.m. Eastern on 5 November 2024. The evening low was 56.9% at 6:43 p.m.
- 12 h 19 min — Michigan: market lead over the AP callTrump was 38.5% in Michigan at 7 p.m. and above 90% from 12:35 a.m.; the AP called the state at 12:54 p.m. on 6 November
- 49.5% — Pennsylvania at its lowest that eveningAt 8:22 p.m. Eastern, a coin flip. It passed 90% at 11:21 p.m., 3 h 3 min before the AP called it
Images
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Links
- The study
- Full text, sources and method
- Markdown edition
- Plain text for quoting and for assistants
- Chart figures (CSV)
- The numbers behind the headline chart
- All datasets (JSON)
- Every published table and chart, with units and sources
- Open the midterms room
- Live Polymarket prices for House and Senate control and the key 2026 races, through the night of 3 November.
Press contact
Vultax Research — [email protected]
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How to cite
Vultax Research Team, Election Night Odds: Polymarket Passed 90% for Trump Nearly 7 Hours Before the AP Call, 2026-11-02, https://vultax.com/research/election-night-odds-polymarket-2024
Published 2026-11-02. Figures are the published study; live screens move. Plain-text version, Use our data